Watch Path of Exile live and win a Helmet Skin with Twitch Drops!

"

IamLoco wrote:

The funny thing about this is, that almost no one seems to get one of the helmets. NEITHER in the streams I am watching, nor in this thread, nor in the guild or global chat(s).

If the chance to win is 1% every 5 minutes, IN AVERAGE 1 out of 100 people should win one mtx every 5 minutes. How can it be then that this group of people seems to be completely non-existent?

I think there is something super fishy here. Either the twitch mechanic is broken or they just made up some fake numbers to lure players into the streams.

Could be.

Or it could be some observer bias in that people who got successful stop caring and do not post.

Those who are still 'waiting in line' keep posting.

"

Archinquisitor wrote:

"

Galtrovan wrote:

Do you know what average means?

50% of people will get in that amount of time. The other 50% won't. You are in the other 50% category.

You are wrong.

It seems that YOU don't know what average means.

Believe what you like. LMAO.

"

Galtrovan wrote:

Rolling a 100-sided dice, rolling each number is equally likely. On average you should expect to be able to roll a "100" after 100 rolls of the dice.

Well, one roll is done every 5 minutes. To do 100 rolls will take 500 minutes (100 x 5). 500 minutes is 8.33 hours (500 minutes / 60 mintues-per-hour).

This is where GGG came up with "on average it will take 8.33 hours to win".

Correct.

"

Galtrovan wrote:

But again, average means 50% will win within 8.33 hours and 50% won't win within 8.33 hours. Or stated another way, at 8.33 hours you are at a 50% chance of not winning. That's huge. And as I already went into "you have a 99% chance to not win" every time you roll, I won't go into that again.

Wrong.

Again, please stop spreading your false math.

The probability to win within the average time is 63%, as many people have pointed out over and over.

50% win before/after the MEDIAN time, not the AVERAGE time. They are two entirely different beasts.

The median time is 5.7 hours or 69 rolls, because 99% ^69 = 50%.

So 50% of people will win before/after 5.7 hours, not 8.3 hours.

The published announcement of GGG tells us that you will always win the mtx, read well.

Every five minutes of view time you'll have a 1% chance to receive one of the helmet skins which means it would take an average of 8.33 hours of view time to receive a Twitch Drop reward. However, depending on your luck, you could receive one much sooner!

At no time do they explain that you can never win it, so this event is a hoax.
This is important because although the word average appears in no time they say that if you do not have luck you can not win it.
And that my friends is misleading advertising.

I think you have to go to school and play less. If for 5 minutes the counter is reset not accumulating the percentage, you always have a 99% chance of not winning anything, ALWAYS
For the rest of the mastercard.

My English is not the best, I hope you understand me well.

24 hrs no ha, add this to ur stats math gurus).

Had twitch on since the event started. Still no hat. Really poor event. It's not just 'muh free stuff' it's just ridiculous.

"

Galtrovan wrote:

"

Hentai_Bunny wrote:

I mean, I agree that it's completely random and you could realistically never get anything, but given that this is probability, the average you're claiming doesn't make sense.

You have a 50% of having gotten it within (or rather, you are statistically at 50% chance to not having gotten it) 5.75 hours.

The statistical likelyhood of not having rolled a 1 after 288 rolls is about 5.5% which, while isn't impossible still makes people question if the numbers are right.

Rolling a 100-sided dice, rolling each number is equally likely. On average you should expect to be able to roll a "100" after 100 rolls of the dice.

Well, one roll is done every 5 minutes. To do 100 rolls will take 500 minutes (100 x 5). 500 minutes is 8.33 hours (500 minutes / 60 mintues-per-hour).

This is where GGG came up with "on average it will take 8.33 hours to win".

But again, average means 50% will win within 8.33 hours and 50% won't win within 8.33 hours. Or stated another way, at 8.33 hours you are at a 50% chance of not winning. That's huge. And as I already went into "you have a 99% chance to not win" every time you roll, I won't go into that again.

Firstly, that's not how statistics work, and you've shown multiple times that you don't know how it does.
Secondly, that's not what GGG claimed either:

"

GGG_Bex wrote:

it would take an average of 8.33 hours of view time to receive a Twitch Drop reward.

What they state is that, when everything is accounted for, the average time watched would be 8.33 hours.

Well doing no event would have been better than this shit show. Only one profiting from this is free advertisement for streamers and PoE.

Old joke about logics.
"What is the probability to meet a dinosaur out in the street?".
He answers: - "about 1/1000000000000000000000"
She answers: - "50/50: either a meeting or not ..."

#feminism