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BearCares wrote:
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IamLoco wrote:
This kind of Marketing only causes people to lose trust in a company. Bad idea.
Yeah I lost trust in their ability to do math because he said it would average out to 8 hours and I've lost count how long I've had twitch running.
My point is I don't trust those mystery box odds that they posted anymore.
exactly
their math skills are horrible
Big Shaq warned us: 1 + 1 = 3, quick mats
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Posted byObsessionNL#6724on Nov 30, 2017, 8:09:50 AM
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1% / minutes looks more sexy.
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Posted byVhanlay#1400on Nov 30, 2017, 8:12:26 AM
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BearCares wrote:
Yeah I lost trust in their ability to do math because he said it would average out to 8 hours and I've lost count how long I've had twitch running.
My point is I don't trust those mystery box odds that they posted anymore.
But that's why it's an average. If you flip a coin 100 times, there should be around 50 heads and around 50 tails. This would be closer to 50 each if you flipped it 1000 times.
The argument could be made, though, that mentioning this average is pretty much meaningless, because it's exactly that -- an average. Some people may get the hat in the first 5 minutes, some may never get it.
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Posted bySabreWolfy#5106on Nov 30, 2017, 8:18:11 AM
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Just wish we knew it was working
Says i have connected game to twitch, im watching streams
But no way to know if its rolling
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Posted byBiggestAl#0543on Nov 30, 2017, 8:19:40 AM
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Seems like the thing most people here don't realize is that there are thousands and thousand of participants and most of them likely received their hats and forgot about this thread.
The fact that every man posting here that he hasn't receive a hat after 30+ hours doesn't mean most people areunlucky too.
If I had mine, I wouldn't even read this thread! :D
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Posted byHuKoJIAuKA#5034on Nov 30, 2017, 8:20:31 AM
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Cogburn wrote:
They offered you free stuff wrong? Ohhh poor baby. Tho i agree on slightly wrong format - they really should add free guaranteed tissue for all those tears
I'll ignore the trolling insults... it is indeed the wrong format. It's a marketing ploy at our expense, and that pisses me off a bit. This arrives right after their retarded Black Friday sale of rotating items every hour. It's salt in the wound.
Do you really think I care about another MTX? Look at how much I've given them and how many MTXes I can buy on my own. Again, it's not about free stuff, it's about the principle of it.
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
▒▒▒▒░░░░░ cipher_nemo ░░░░░▒▒▒▒ │ Waggro Level: ♠○○○○ │ 1244
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Posted bycipher_nemo#6436on Nov 30, 2017, 8:20:44 AM
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Galtrovan wrote:
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Damoochie wrote:
24 hours streaming and no hat. Average 8.33 hours my arse.
Do you know what average means?
50% of people will get in that amount of time. The other 50% won't. You are in the other 50% category.
Also, I already posted this once. Why do people expect to win? Math says you won't.
Every 5 minutes you have a 99% chance to not win.
After 1 hour you have had 12 99% chances to not win.
After 10 hours you have had 120 99% chances to not win.
At 24 hours you are sitting at 288 99% chances to have not won.
Basically, you have rolled a 100-sided dice 288 times, and are expecting one of those 288 rolls to roll "100", the only value that will win.
If you keep rolling, you could win. But you could also always end up rolling one of the other 99 numbers and never win.
I mean, I agree that it's completely random and you could realistically never get anything, but given that this is probability, the average you're claiming doesn't make sense.
You have a 50% of having gotten it within (or rather, you are statistically at 50% chance to not having gotten it) 5.75 hours.
The statistical likelyhood of not having rolled a 1 after 288 rolls is about 5.5% which, while isn't impossible still makes people question if the numbers are right.
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Posted byHentai_Bunny#6756on Nov 30, 2017, 8:26:18 AM
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Hentai_Bunny wrote:
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Galtrovan wrote:
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Damoochie wrote:
24 hours streaming and no hat. Average 8.33 hours my arse.
Do you know what average means?
50% of people will get in that amount of time. The other 50% won't. You are in the other 50% category.
Also, I already posted this once. Why do people expect to win? Math says you won't.
Every 5 minutes you have a 99% chance to not win.
After 1 hour you have had 12 99% chances to not win.
After 10 hours you have had 120 99% chances to not win.
At 24 hours you are sitting at 288 99% chances to have not won.
Basically, you have rolled a 100-sided dice 288 times, and are expecting one of those 288 rolls to roll "100", the only value that will win.
If you keep rolling, you could win. But you could also always end up rolling one of the other 99 numbers and never win.
I mean, I agree that it's completely random and you could realistically never get anything, but given that this is probability, the average you're claiming doesn't make sense.
You have a 50% of having gotten it within (or rather, you are statistically at 50% chance to not having gotten it) 5.75 hours.
The statistical likelyhood of not having rolled a 1 after 288 rolls is about 5.5% which, while isn't impossible still makes people question if the numbers are right.
Yeah thx for saying what I was thinking. At some point it becomes statistically unlikely to not get it; even at 1%.
I'm currently sitting at approximately 400 rolls of that dice for no hat.
--------------- THE MOOCH --------------
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Posted byDamoochie#1947on Nov 30, 2017, 8:38:53 AM
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Hentai_Bunny wrote:
I mean, I agree that it's completely random and you could realistically never get anything, but given that this is probability, the average you're claiming doesn't make sense.
You have a 50% of having gotten it within (or rather, you are statistically at 50% chance to not having gotten it) 5.75 hours.
The statistical likelyhood of not having rolled a 1 after 288 rolls is about 5.5% which, while isn't impossible still makes people question if the numbers are right.
Your calculations are OK up to that point.
Now make the calcs. of the likelihood of 100+ people not getting a hat in 288 rolls each. Seems fishy
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Posted byefguy#5648on Nov 30, 2017, 8:42:31 AM
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Coming up on 24 hours and no PM.
I just leave is streaming in the background, muted, at 160p, not actually watching it.
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▒▒▒▒░░░░░ cipher_nemo ░░░░░▒▒▒▒ │ Waggro Level: ♠○○○○ │ 1244
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Posted bycipher_nemo#6436on Nov 30, 2017, 8:50:42 AM
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