Watch Path of Exile live and win a Helmet Skin with Twitch Drops!

The funny thing about this is, that almost no one seems to get one of the helmets. NEITHER in the streams I am watching, nor in this thread, nor in the guild or global chat(s).

If the chance to win is 1% every 5 minutes, IN AVERAGE 1 out of 100 people should win one mtx every 5 minutes. How can it be then that this group of people seems to be completely non-existent?

I think there is something super fishy here. Either the twitch mechanic is broken or they just made up some fake numbers to lure players into the streams.

36 hours and counting. If it takes another 36 hours, I'll only break even between electric costs and the average price of a hat.

Right now I'm sitting at 0.94467313732878 chance of having won hat.
Still not won hat.

Conversely, chance of me buying supporter pack is currently sitting at 0.06 chance. Fair is fair.

I will buy some stash tabs next sale though. You're welcome GGG.

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efguy wrote:

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Hentai_Bunny wrote:

I mean, I agree that it's completely random and you could realistically never get anything, but given that this is probability, the average you're claiming doesn't make sense.

You have a 50% of having gotten it within (or rather, you are statistically at 50% chance to not having gotten it) 5.75 hours.

The statistical likelyhood of not having rolled a 1 after 288 rolls is about 5.5% which, while isn't impossible still makes people question if the numbers are right.

Your calculations are OK up to that point.

Now make the calcs. of the likelihood of 100+ people not getting a hat in 288 rolls each. Seems fishy

I mean, they each individually have the 5.5% chance of not having gotten it.
So if we assume everyone has the same chance of a roll each, that could suggest that for every 100 people that haven't gotten it at 24 hours there are about 1718 people that have, if I've done my quick math right.

I'm also one of the people who are post 16 hours, but given my approximate calculations, there would statistically be 4 in 100000 people who haven't gotten it after 85 hours, so...

yeah any one have actually win anything ?

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Galtrovan wrote:

Do you know what average means?

50% of people will get in that amount of time. The other 50% won't. You are in the other 50% category.

You are wrong.

It seems that YOU don't know what average means.

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Vhanlay wrote:

yeah any one have actually win anything ?

No and i dont see much people in streams who win. I think the chance of winning is still 1%. Some poeple think that your chance grows for every 5 minutes but then there had to be much more winners actually. So you are forced to watch many streams and its still lottery. Its ok that there is no guarantee but the announcement post with this 8,3 hours is a trap for your brain, so everybody complains about not winning after 10+ hours watching.

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Vhanlay wrote:

yeah any one have actually win anything ?

Yes, my friend got a uncommon hat.

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Hentai_Bunny wrote:

I mean, I agree that it's completely random and you could realistically never get anything, but given that this is probability, the average you're claiming doesn't make sense.

You have a 50% of having gotten it within (or rather, you are statistically at 50% chance to not having gotten it) 5.75 hours.

The statistical likelyhood of not having rolled a 1 after 288 rolls is about 5.5% which, while isn't impossible still makes people question if the numbers are right.

Rolling a 100-sided dice, rolling each number is equally likely. On average you should expect to be able to roll a "100" after 100 rolls of the dice.

Well, one roll is done every 5 minutes. To do 100 rolls will take 500 minutes (100 x 5). 500 minutes is 8.33 hours (500 minutes / 60 mintues-per-hour).

This is where GGG came up with "on average it will take 8.33 hours to win".

But again, average means 50% will win within 8.33 hours and 50% won't win within 8.33 hours. Or stated another way, at 8.33 hours you are at a 50% chance of not winning. That's huge. And as I already went into "you have a 99% chance to not win" every time you roll, I won't go into that again.