Understanding Map Drops - a statistical Approach

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Char1983 wrote:

While true, this means that everyone would have to run their maps trade-centered.

No, opting out is quite possible. And quite common. So is partial participation, especially of a "sell maps, don't buy them" variety. Or you could have a small map group of fellow guild members, rather than trying to share with The Economy at large.

But for those who do participate fully in the economy, the overrolling of the majority of economic participants translates into incredible savings, especially in tiers below the average sustainment threshold (in other words, just starting on mapping).

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

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Char1983 wrote:

While true, this means that everyone would have to run their maps trade-centered.

No, opting out is quite possible. And quite common. So is partial participation, especially of a "sell maps, don't buy them" variety. Or you could have a small map group of fellow guild members, rather than trying to share with The Economy at large.

But for those who do participate fully in the economy, the overrolling of the majority of economic participants translates into incredible savings, especially in tiers below the average sustainment threshold (in other words, just starting on mapping).

This is of course true, but for those not buying maps, it can be a horrible experience. And I think that should not be the case.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

This has absolutely zero effect on map drops, except that you could be running lower level maps than you could get away with.

Am i glad i didn't say that!

. . .

Not even worth my time.

Peace,

-Boem-

I'm impressed, gj OP.

Nice to see some serious maths here, not the usual pseudo bs.

OK, I updated the second post, discussing a bit more about building map pools and how good or bad your RNG can be. To be honest, I am shocked, and the results I see (using the exact same distribution functions all the time) are pretty extreme. This leads me to believe that the reality is not as bad. It is bad, but not quite as bad.

I still do not consider up-vendoring of maps, or trading, both of which even out things a bit.


So far, my recommendation for someone who wants challenge and reach T15 maps at least once (like me) are:

1)
Always run your highest-tier map first, unless your character is too weak or you do not have the currency to roll it properly. In those cases, farm currency and/or upgrade your character

2)
Define a minimum map tier you are OK to run. If you fall below that level (for example: T9), buy maps of that level.

3)
Hope that RNG likes you.



I still think, and actually the longer the more, that the system needs an update and could be done better.



EDIT: I will start running my small pool (10 total) of T12+ maps soon. The last few times I tried, I had no luck whatsoever. I know that the effects of IIQ are pretty strong, so I should put Zana mods on all of them, but soloing that is just not a great idea. I might just vaal them all.

If anyone wants to join me on those maps, give me a message (IGN: Bryjanna). I am playing on the South American server, though. Also, only friendly people and no laggy builds, please. I am not trying to run super fast, either.

The idea of building a map pool is more grounded in the idea that you want to run maps appropriate for your level (taking the xp/level penalty into account) than it is a purely psychological effect, at least for me. Another thing I've noticed is that sporadically running very high level maps after being used to easier maps can lead to recklessness and well... death. Though I am a little shocked just how much worse the results come out with this approach over a such a large sample size.

There also isn't any standard, strict ruleset I follow when building map pools, it's more a matter of gauging your current economic and xp situation between maps to figure out what level map to run next and how much to spend rolling said map. Graphing "dem feels" is kind of tough though.


It'd be interesting to collect the same data with leveling in mind by plugging in xp gains starting from say... level 80 on up to 100. I wonder how the consensus on building a map pool would change (if at all). After all, experience is the primary driving force for climbing map tiers to begin with. Item level benefits hardly matter after ilvl 78 or so, with a few fringe exceptions.

For me, the core reason to build a map pool is that I, once during my PoE "career", want to play every single map. So far, all T14 and T15 maps are missing, even though I have been trying for half a year.

I have two T14 and four T13 maps in my stash, one / three of them came from maps, the other two came from Uber Atziri. That, to be honest, is pretty ridiculous in my eyes. Currently, I am just looking at them, but as said, I will run them soon. Since the last map drop buff, I have not dropped a single T14 map. With my character that leveled from zero to 93 (and died a lot on the way), I have not dropped a single T14 map.

Im my opinion maps drops should be a progression not a stupid RNG.

If you go t10 you should get t9 t10 or t11 maps for a real progression on lvling, instead stupid rng on all tiers.


theres no sense doing t10 or t11 maps and geting t1 maps as rewards.

If i can do t10 t11 should get reward with more dificult maps to progress in game content.

Actual game design its just chase the carrot dangling in fishing rod and pray for luck.

True, but GGG loves RNG and seems to feel that maps are needed as a currency sink. We might not be able to ever convince them otherwise.

However, I think the RNG is too extreme. And the reason it is so extreme is that it is layered.

Map drops are fine. Farming maps past T12 is not worth it anyway, you can do 2 T11 in 10 min or 1 T14 in 8-10 min, less exp, less drops.