Understanding Map Drops - a statistical Approach

Interesting read and very admirable effort.

What I took from this is it shows how beneficial it is to map as part of a group pooling resources. Which makes me think to offset that to some degree it might make sense if a player x function were added for solo players.

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PoofGoof wrote:

I will say this, map drops don't need to be buffed once you get into t14 area.

Getting past t10, however, is a fucking nightmare.

It should be steady into t11-t12 and the t13+ area should be slightly more restricted.

Overall, a buff to the pool without hindering a sense of progression.

You sure about this? Have you been staying in the high maps for more than say five hundred maps already? If not, you could just be experiencing a streak. Even with 1000 maps it could be still a streak. That is my point: Your personal experience with maps tells you, essentially, nothing about whether map drops a lot or not. Which tells you already that something is probably broken. Two players, both do everything right, one is rewarded, the other is not...

Map drop lucky and unlucky streaks can be looooooong.

I have still not seen a single T15 map. I dropped one T14 map in maps.

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GeorgAnatoly wrote:

Interesting read and very admirable effort.

What I took from this is it shows how beneficial it is to map as part of a group pooling resources. Which makes me think to offset that to some degree it might make sense if a player x function were added for solo players.

Why?

Pooling resources mostly has the effect that you have more currency to roll maps. Yes, it helps (a lot!), but a player X function would not do anything... or am I missing something?

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Char1983 wrote:

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PoofGoof wrote:

I will say this, map drops don't need to be buffed once you get into t14 area.

Getting past t10, however, is a fucking nightmare.

It should be steady into t11-t12 and the t13+ area should be slightly more restricted.

Overall, a buff to the pool without hindering a sense of progression.

You sure about this? Have you been staying in the high maps for more than say five hundred maps already? If not, you could just be experiencing a streak. Even with 1000 maps it could be still a streak. That is my point: Your personal experience with maps tells you, essentially, nothing about whether map drops a lot or not. Which tells you already that something is probably broken. Two players, both do everything right, one is rewarded, the other is not...

Map drop lucky and unlucky streaks can be looooooong.

I have still not seen a single T15 map. I dropped one T14 map in maps.

I've been completely unlucky from t9-t10 area for weeks. Easily 200 or so maps.

Once I got into t14 on a lucky streak and got my hands on some t15s it's been a most easy grind since.

But then, t15's are much more likely to drop a t12+ map based on the map level alone.

It's pretty much the proverbial "shit rolls down hill". Once you're on top, it's a lot harder to fall off than it is to slip on the way up.

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PoofGoof wrote:

I've been completely unlucky from t9-t10 area for weeks. Easily 200 or so maps.

Once I got into t14 on a lucky streak and got my hands on some t15s it's been a most easy grind since.

But then, t15's are much more likely to drop a t12+ map based on the map level alone.

It's pretty much the proverbial "shit rolls down hill". Once you're on top, it's a lot harder to fall off than it is to slip on the way up.

I am very sure what you are experiencing is mostly a good streak vs. a bad streak. Let's talk again in 300 maps ;).

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PoofGoof wrote:

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Char1983 wrote:

"

PoofGoof wrote:

I will say this, map drops don't need to be buffed once you get into t14 area.

Getting past t10, however, is a fucking nightmare.

It should be steady into t11-t12 and the t13+ area should be slightly more restricted.

Overall, a buff to the pool without hindering a sense of progression.

You sure about this? Have you been staying in the high maps for more than say five hundred maps already? If not, you could just be experiencing a streak. Even with 1000 maps it could be still a streak. That is my point: Your personal experience with maps tells you, essentially, nothing about whether map drops a lot or not. Which tells you already that something is probably broken. Two players, both do everything right, one is rewarded, the other is not...

Map drop lucky and unlucky streaks can be looooooong.

I have still not seen a single T15 map. I dropped one T14 map in maps.

I've been completely unlucky from t9-t10 area for weeks. Easily 200 or so maps.

Once I got into t14 on a lucky streak and got my hands on some t15s it's been a most easy grind since.

But then, t15's are much more likely to drop a t12+ map based on the map level alone.

It's pretty much the proverbial "shit rolls down hill". Once you're on top, it's a lot harder to fall off than it is to slip on the way up.

200? That is really unlucky. I have been able to sustain T9-10 while gradually building a large t12-t13 base without spending a single net chaos orb by continuously selling desirable maps and running the less desirable ones.

Even a year ago, it was possible to perpetually solo self sustain level 76 maps as long as you sold higher maps for leve L 76s.

Maps are incredibly sustainable with the right build, enough knowledge and of course, lots of selling and buying of maps.

It feels like already, people stop reading the entry post :(. Can we get back to that one?

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Char1983 wrote:

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PoofGoof wrote:

I've been completely unlucky from t9-t10 area for weeks. Easily 200 or so maps.

Once I got into t14 on a lucky streak and got my hands on some t15s it's been a most easy grind since.

But then, t15's are much more likely to drop a t12+ map based on the map level alone.

It's pretty much the proverbial "shit rolls down hill". Once you're on top, it's a lot harder to fall off than it is to slip on the way up.

I am very sure what you are experiencing is mostly a good streak vs. a bad streak. Let's talk again in 300 maps ;).

To be fair, this was leveling from 65-91 on t9-t10 (practically) alone. Practically being the tier of the maps.

But you're right on your next post. I'll re-read the infographics tomorrow when I'm more sober.

Thank you, by the way. For the efforts to bring a player's perspective to the table.

Interesting model. The only problem I see is very small sample size, only 360 tries. Imo this is hardly enough to make further calculations produce more or less reliable results

...moreover, all that data is about lv74-80 maps, but you somehow decided to use it to determine drop distribution for lower levels too? maybe you should add some assumptions to the list.

I have two suggestions.

1) re-create this experiment with "building up a pool" instead of the "run highest tier".

Something like 50 maps of same tier = move up one tier (low-tier maps)

20 maps of mid tier = move up one

5 maps of high tier etc

I would be very interested to see how a player "experiences" the mapping system when steadily building up a pool compared to relying entirely on RNG for a succession streak in order to push him up in tiers.

2) incorporate the lower tier maps to sustain the higher ones somehow. Since you can convert them to higher tiers, this is a useful mechanic and a good sink for lower tier maps, which i as a solo player constantly use.

I feel that this impacts your higher tiers a bit.

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I see the map streak in your example where you constantly drop back to tier 4 and this simply doesn't happen when you build up a pool. Arguably, you will still have to run a lot of maps to breach that tier but it will not "feel" that demotivating.(steady progression goal vs erratic progression goal)

Similarly i don't think the excess of lower maps is accounted for in the model and neither is their increased drop rate when compared to mid/high tier maps?

Keep in mind, i don't math, neither do i statistic.

I am inclined to think your not "that far off", but i think the little things that i am pointing out "nudge" the experience to a more positive one.(sense of steady progression)

Nice read sir, thanks for that.

Peace,

-Boem-

edit : i think it would be cool to run this model using different factors a few times to see if certain methods actually provide a radical different experience to the player or yield different returns etc

I think such a thing would be very good to understand both the system and how players relate to it.