Understanding Map Drops - a statistical Approach

"

Dr1MaR wrote:

Map drops are fine. Farming maps past T12 is not worth it anyway, you can do 2 T11 in 10 min or 1 T14 in 8-10 min, less exp, less drops.

Congratulations on being completely ignorant and entirely missing the point of the thread.


EDIT: BTW, I would absolutely prefer the T14 map.

Drop rates are not static , they have never been and will never be .

GGG already confirmed that they tweak the drop rates of certain currency ( chaos orbs was the currency mentioned ) on the fly during temporary leagues based on their own statistical data .

Nothing to discuss , the RNG in this game is manipulated heavily by the gaming company , like any other game that has % to drop X .

That may all be, however it doesn't change anything about the layered nature of map drops.

Thank you very much for the interesting read, I really appreciate your efforts a lot.

While going over all of this, a couple things came to my mind:

1st: Mapping from t1 to t7 takes very little "finesse", which is what I can derive from your statistics, it also matches with my experiences. I suppose it is a fair assumption that practically any player can get to that tier of maps easily, by manipulating the odds a little bit, as in: Run them "blue" from t4/5 onwards.

2nd:Mapping from t8 to t11 is a little more difficult, at which point alcing maps is more or less a prerequirement to stabilize faster and keep unlucky streaks at a minimum. Furthermore it is not exactly the most expensive way of doing things.


3rd:Past tier 11 is where the problems occur: Poor drop streaks can last, practically, forever. So, I have to wonder if there was a way, based on your statistics, to develop a currency efficient method of playing the odds a better way. A "rule of thumb" aside of "run your highest map at any point in time", so to speak.



Higher tier mapping is something many players and streamers have their own method for.

For instance Hegemony or Zizaran: High tier maps are being alt-regaled for magic mobs and pack size, and either get ambush (t12/13, I believe) slapped on, or domination (t14/15). Also they chisel those maps to 20q and use sac(+5% iiq)/mortal(+10% iiq) fragments to further augment the chances.

Another example would be Lighty: High tier maps are being run @ 20q alc/chaosed. Tier 13/14 maps are getting vaaled in hopes of raising the map tier by 1. Zana mods and fragments are also applied, I believe.

All these players reach levels of 95+, they get to run higher tier content, but their methods are different. Do you think that there is a way for you to work something out that can display the (dis)advantages of the methods I mentioned above (not factoring party play or iiq culling in)? I would be interested in seeing that for sure.

Very Interesting read. I'm wondering how much things have changed with the recent map changes for new league/expansion?

I can imagine it must be quite disheartening to roll maps properly, potentially spending a dozen chaos/regal or even exalts per map, only to never see a T15 if your that really unlucky person.

Think i'll stick with alch and run, or even just trans and run.

I guess one thing you can do is trans/alch 3 maps then vendor up to unid for the 30% bonus, don't know how that would affect ivestment-> retun rates.

"

Char1983 wrote:

True, but GGG loves RNG and seems to feel that maps are needed as a currency sink. We might not be able to ever convince them otherwise.

However, I think the RNG is too extreme. And the reason it is so extreme is that it is layered.

Each time GGG "raise the bar" in terms of either making maps more accessible, raising the level of maps +2 etc, that allows another group of players to make the push to 100 because its now within their reach.

I think we'll continue to see small incremental improvements to this over time, but their goal isn't to make Lv100 accessible to everyone.

The next buff for example might be buffing the minimum tier map that can drop in a given map, so instead of getting T1 in a T11 map, it might be limited to -6 or T5. A small change, but might allow more closer tier maps, so vendoring up might be more readily available.

Also is there a point where running ubers is more practical than rolling T14/15 maps?

"

Asmosis wrote:

Also is there a point where running ubers is more practical than rolling T14/15 maps?

Are you kidding? ALWAYS. That place is a lvl 80 (t13) area, bosses (vaals, trio, atziri) can all drop t15 maps, blue packs (never been there, but you know how it's like in normal atziri right?) can drop t14 maps.

You get good loot, maybe even better than from a "decently" rolled t14. Might be straight out lying there since I have no experience though.

There's also a guaranteed unique waiting at the end if you can clear it. Not to mention you'll probably get paid for running über.


All in all, über farming >>>>>>>>>> [times eternity] >>>>>>>>>> high level mapping.

Interesting...

I miss only one thing: how the 20% boss drop rate works in multiple boss map? We can have multiple boss in two ways, either if the map has naturally multiple bosses, or by twin mod.

Can I get more than one map from boss(es)?

"

Sure_K4y wrote:

I have to wonder if there was a way, based on your statistics, to develop a currency efficient method of playing the odds a better way. A "rule of thumb" aside of "run your highest map at any point in time", so to speak.

The way you game the map drop system is: never run a map which you wouldn't eventually run if you ran your highest map every time. It isn't more complicated than this.

The way you game the XP penalty for being over-leveled is: if you're going to run a lower-level map eventually, run it before higher-level maps.

If you combine the two, there is an interesting contrast going on; to maximize map drops, you'd like to just run your highest map every time, but to minimize XP penalty you want to run maps lower than your highest if, and only if, you would regress back to a lower map tier if you attempted to sustain the higher map.

According to the model in the OP: it is not wise to assume any significant regression below Tier 11, so there is no solid justification in not running a t10 immediately after finding one in a t9. However, for Tiers 12-15, you can expect periods of nonsustainment, so hoarding your t13+ until you feel you're " done" with t11/12 is a wise move.

Again, according to OP: a good rule of thumb would be to save t12 until you're at least level 83 (3.2 billion XP from level 100), t13 until at least level 90 (2.4 billion from 100), t14 until at least level 94 (1.6 billion), and t15 until level 98 (0.6 billion).

If you doubt not the overall method but the precision of the OP in this regard (which I think is fair), a good shortcut is an economic analysis. Maps are going to begin having significant price at the levels which players find difficult to sustain, so you can use market values as a rough indicator of how sustainable a map tier is. If a map isn't worth quite a bit, it isn't worth hoarding until later.

1. chisels only t11+
2. don't use vaals or zana mods, it's a waste of currency
3. roll at least double pack size
4. you'll sustain up to t13, running t11-t14

it's working for me for a long time (around 4 months)