Understanding Map Drops - a statistical Approach

this all useless.
poe - random
thats it.

"

Boem wrote:

I have two suggestions.

1) re-create this experiment with "building up a pool" instead of the "run highest tier".

Something like 50 maps of same tier = move up one tier (low-tier maps)

20 maps of mid tier = move up one

5 maps of high tier etc

Please do this. I believe my less sophisticated number crunching tells me that it doesn't change the overall analysis, except you are less likely to be "lucky guy" and less likely to be "unlucky guy."

I build a pool of 8-10 before moving up. At T13, I stop worrying about pools and run them at my convenience.

"

godgraff wrote:

this all useless.
poe - random
thats it.

Respecting someone for his effort is too much to ask, right ?

Fucking internet.


@OP

https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/807964

If it somehow helps to sync your results. I think he used a log-lin distribution. Im also not too deep into it, 'cuz, well, "just" an engineer. :P

A small suggestion for this good job:
Clearly state in two lines what you did to give people an easier overview. I.e

- I have this dataset i collected
- I try to fit a mathematical model into this dataset
- I simulate this model to check the result and pool development

(maybe better formulated :))

If you do some sort of puplications, intro and conclusion are the most important points and needs to go hand in hand.


Edit: Even for a model, imo its pretty damn close. Im running usually 130 EIIQ (2.3 Multi) and can hold nearly T11 (Drops are in average a bit lower). Expecting a model, that actually fits to 90%-95% is utopic. So yea, pretty well done.

I also suggested not so long ago, to reduce the variance overall so the disparity between "lucky" and "unlucky" guy is not so damn huge. Just look at that shit: Lucky is running in average like 2 tiers higher? I mean, c'mon..

"

Char1983 wrote:

The goal here is to build a model that approximately describes how map drops work in PoE...

All your overly complicated analysis here only goes to prove one thing. That with no real endgame in PoE the devs have had to make higher tier map drop rates low enough to extend the time grind for xp to achieve a level 100 build. Most of GGG's thinking on this is focused on the very small % of top elites that can push a build to 100 in a couple of months in any league. Chris has stated that we (GGG) don't want elite players to reach level 100 in only 1 month. One way was the doubling of xp required going from 99 to 100. More xp needed, more time grind. Simple and obvious. The only other way is to gate (limit) the higher level map drops that provide more xp for harder content played.

Your way too long (yes,you fairly warned us that this post would be long) post and tedious statistical analysis of map drop frequencies really removes players from pure monster bashing fun of the arpg game. Except for math and statistical junkies who else plays PoE for the math analysis of how map drop rng formulas work (maybe build theorists and commodity brokers like doing that and don't play the monster bash).

Anyway, it doesn't take a statistical degree to understand that PoE has been and is being programmed to keep top elite arpg junkies from racing a build to level 100 in a few weeks. Plain and simple. How that is done by way of low drop rates of higher tier maps is always tweaked each league to not see too many 100s of level 100 builds on the ladders. Not any need to go crazy on this. I'm sure the devs are amused and pleased that their little arpg has gotten this much over analysis.

"

godgraff wrote:

this all useless.
poe - random
thats it.

Awesome! You totally understood the post, especially the "think before posting" part. Well done!

"

Astarte911 wrote:

https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/807964

If it somehow helps to sync your results. I think he used a log-lin distribution. Im also not too deep into it, 'cuz, well, "just" an engineer. :P

A small suggestion for this good job:
Clearly state in two lines what you did to give people an easier overview. I.e

- I have this dataset i collected
- I try to fit a mathematical model into this dataset
- I simulate this model to check the result and pool development

Thanks for the input / suggestions :).

"

Arrowneous wrote:

Your way too long (yes,you fairly warned us that this post would be long) post and tedious statistical analysis of map drop frequencies really removes players from pure monster bashing fun of the arpg game. Except for math and statistical junkies who else plays PoE for the math analysis of how map drop rng formulas work (maybe build theorists and commodity brokers like doing that and don't play the monster bash).

Look, if you are not interested, there are enough other threads in this forum. I find this interesting, because I have a math-oriented mind.

Besides, I still strongly believe that map drops could be organised better. In a way that makes it more fun for the average player, without making top-end players sustain T14. And maybe, just maybe, someone from GGG will read this and think about it. Will make more sense once I post some more analysis, which I did not do yet, because honestly, it is quite some work. But it is work that I like :).

I just want to say I'm planning on reading this thread and responding properly.

Soon™.

.

Wouldn't it be awesome if GGG actually gave us the map drop function.

So we could precisely model it.

And criticize it.

@ Entropic_Fire:

Well, maybe. We do know some facts for sure, though. Amongst them are: Normal mobs drop a max of +0, magic/rares +1 and only bosses can drop +2. We also know that most drops are somewhat close to the map level you run (from statistics, and I assume that applies for all tiers). We know that T13 is unsustainable and that T8 is sustainable with alch-and-go. We know that T14/T15 is rare.

From that knowledge alone, and with a bit of modeling, we can learn a lot. We can maybe not learn so much about the "climbing through the tiers" business, as I pointed out, but we can learn about how lucky/unlucky you can get and that T15s are rare, but rare in a weird way (streaky).


@ Vhlad:

Yes, it would be. I doubt they will do it, though. But yes, GGG, if you are willing to give the map drop function, that would be absolutely awesome :).

Thank you for this post. It was pretty fun to read. I am not a very good player and have been stuck at T6 for awhile. This gives me some ideas on what to change to move up some map tiers.