650 Fusing Orbs + 400 Fusing Orbs

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Kortak wrote:

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TehHammer wrote:

I've managed to get my hands on 3 or 4 5L drops (in open beta), picked up one at the vendor and crafted another. I really like the system and anyone who complains about it comes off as whiny and entitled. If you don't like RNG this probably isn't the genre for you.

Thats because you found one and crafted one.. what about if you didnt found one or can craft one but you need one... 600 fusing later are you still this happyfluffy

OP is going for a 6L. Not a 5L. Hell, I've already dropped like 7 5L since OB.

Big difference between 5 and 6
_

I've gotten like 5L about 8 times during the mission to get 6L

I'd like to point people in this discussion to an idea of mine:

http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/165683

Under my proposed mechanics change, it wouldn't be any easier to roll a 6l, but you'd get to retain the best roll you'd received so far. Would this change make the endeavor of getting a 6l less frustrating?

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DashSlash wrote:

I'd like to point people in this discussion to an idea of mine:

http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/165683

Under my proposed mechanics change, it wouldn't be any easier to roll a 6l, but you'd get to retain the best roll you'd received so far. Would this change make the endeavor of getting a 6l less frustrating?

Hijacking threads is dickish.

Anyways, I think its a good IF Fusing Orbs were in short supply vs demand by a huge factor.

8 fusing. :)

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Jiman wrote:

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DashSlash wrote:

I'd like to point people in this discussion to an idea of mine:

http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/165683

Under my proposed mechanics change, it wouldn't be any easier to roll a 6l, but you'd get to retain the best roll you'd received so far. Would this change make the endeavor of getting a 6l less frustrating?

Hijacking threads is dickish.

Anyways, I think its a good IF Fusing Orbs were in short supply vs demand by a huge factor.

The discussion is about fusing orbs and also could be seen as the pain in losing progress on the road to the 6L dream, so it's actually not hijacking at all.

What you said was just as off-topic and behaving as some sort of moderator, which is sort of "dickish".

I still agree with the suggestion btw, but I doubt it will ever happen. Nothing will probably change, because apparently RNG is an enjoyable process. Sigh.

What I wonder is how are people getting 1000 fusings to try this :D
How much do you play this game per day? How many of those fusings are from trade with players (and how much time do you spend doing trades for fusings) and how much by drops/vendors?

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Tagek wrote:

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SEXYSUPERSATAN wrote:

320 exactly

Now busy chrom'ing it, need 3 green 1 red 1 blue linked. Already 244 chroms in. Gonna be fun (fucking not).

Uhm bro, I wouldn't waste your chromes on that.
The chance of getting those colours on a pure int chest are nigh impossible.
Like less than 1/10000 impossible.

I don't know bro, I was chroming my 5-socket 5L pure armor armor, and about 60 chroms in it rolled 3 green 2 blue, zero red. I was like wtf.

Just thought this might be a good place to repost some research I've done on the subject.

First off, what we have to go on:
* Here it's confirmed that you roll for groups of sockets at a time, not individual links. So the game does not roll for a link, then roll again for a link to continue the group; instead, it makes a roll to determine the group length, then if there are sockets left it makes another roll for group length, etc.
* Here are confirmed chances for Jeweler's Orbs (not Fusings). You'll notice the chance of getting six sockets with a Jeweler's is very low.
* The only thing we're missing is confirmation on the chances for Fusings. Until then, I will assume that they are identical (or at least very close) to the chances for Jewelers: 1/305 (not 1/306 because it's confirmed that you can't get back the exact same configuration after applying an orb). This is my only assumption, but an assumption nevertheless; it may prove incorrect.

Based off the three points above, I've calculated the data for how many Fusings it would take to forge a 6L, going up to 50,000 Fusings (requiring more than 6522 Fusings is a one-in-a-billion chance, but Excel has a bunch of rows and I felt like using them). Statistically, it looks like this:
* Mean: 305. Makes sense, given the 1/305 chance.
* Median: 211. This means you have a 50% chance of requiring 211 Fusings or less; this is much less that what people would think.
* Lower and upper quartiles: 88 and 422.
* 10th percentile: 32. That means 10% of 6L forgings require 32 Fusings or less. The 5th percentile is 15. (A lot of those one-in-twenty lucky people have posted their easy 6Ls in this thread.)
* 90th percentile: 701. That means 10% of 6L forgings require 701 Fusings or more. The 95th percentile is 912. (OP here would represent about a one-in-twenty unluckiness, which is pretty unfortunate but definitely not unbelievable.)
* Average absolute deviation from the mean: 224.04, 73.5% of the mean. Very swingy results, more swingy that what most people are comfortable accepting mentally.
* Average absolute deviation from the median: 211.06, 100% of the median. Again, very swingy.

For comparison, here's some statistical figures on rolling a six-sided die:
* Mean and median are both 3.5
* Average absolute deviation (from both mean and median): 1.5, 42.9% of the mean/median. In other words, if you think a six-sided die gives swingy results, the whole Fusing thing is about twice as swingy proportionally, with 305 being the average roll.

Given these statistics, it's completely reasonable to believe that, despite the nightmare stories of items needing hundreds of Fusings to achieve 6L, that the 1/305 chance is currently in effect. With a field that is nearly double the deviation (proportionally) of a six-sided die, and has a median positioned much lower than the mean, it's very difficult to get your head around through experimentation; a theorhetical understanding is pretty much required. Let's put it this way: if 50% of the results are 211 or less, but the mean is 305, what does that say about the average value of 50% of the results that are above 211? Getting unlucky with Fusings leads to exponentially more consumption, which, from a arithmetic mindset, leads one to think that the base chance of 6L is much higher than whatever it actually is.

Or, it could be a totally different chance and I'm way off base. If the devs won't release the information, compiling large amounts of data -- and I do mean large -- and properly applying this kind of model to it could reveal the true chance. However, I do believe that the current chance, if not 1/305, is still very close, or we'd be hearing nightmare stories about Fusing a 6L that make the current stories sound like rainbows and lollipops.

I hope this keeps happening to more and more people.

People realise that this game is nothing but an intentional time waster with 0 depth, creativity or variety in builds. All the new mechanics are arbitrary and counter-intuitive to actual diversity, and counter-intuitive to fun (like this rng socket colour and links bullshit).

Such a joke. Hope it dies like D3 (it will, same problems as D3 and more).