650 Fusing Orbs + 400 Fusing Orbs

"

SEXYSUPERSATAN wrote:

320 exactly

Now busy chrom'ing it, need 3 green 1 red 1 blue linked. Already 244 chroms in. Gonna be fun (fucking not).

honestly dont think that is a possible combination, ive run some numbers and since that is an int item it has a very high percent of rolling 6 blues first before any other color shows up, the odds of it running 1 blue instead of 4-6 AND 3 of those being green is close to 0% and im not exaggerating.

"

Hokonoso wrote:

"

SEXYSUPERSATAN wrote:

320 exactly

Now busy chrom'ing it, need 3 green 1 red 1 blue linked. Already 244 chroms in. Gonna be fun (fucking not).

honestly dont think that is a possible combination, ive run some numbers and since that is an int item it has a very high percent of rolling 6 blues first before any other color shows up, the odds of it running 1 blue instead of 4-6 AND 3 of those being green is close to 0% and im not exaggerating.

Show your work. If it's a 10% chance to roll an off color, I already ran the numbers, and it's much more likely than you think.

It's possible.



And my count is now about 600 fusings, 4 5L, 0 6L

I think i am the luckiest man alive. First i thought: Sell that crappy 6 socket armor. But then i tried just for fun a few fusing orbs, after 3 orbs i got 5 links.

"

Xmu wrote:

Did another 400 fusing run.

Those who are curious about 5L , i got 5L about 8 times during that 1k+ fusing orbs
End result :(
anyone else sharing my pain?
Lets cry together.

You have horrible luck, and i highly doubt you used anywhere close to 1000 fusings.

Show us a video of you losing 1k fusings.

"

chronosoul wrote:

"

Xmu wrote:

Did another 400 fusing run.

Those who are curious about 5L , i got 5L about 8 times during that 1k+ fusing orbs
End result :(
anyone else sharing my pain?
Lets cry together.

You have horrible luck, and i highly doubt you used anywhere close to 1000 fusings.

Show us a video of you losing 1k fusings.

Why would this be unlikely ?
The odds of this happening are as follows :
(1/305 to get 6L, so 304/305 to fail getting a 6L)
(304/305)^1000 = 0.03747 = 3.75%
so, a 3.75% chance to roll a thousand times and not roll a 6-socket or 6-link with jeweller's / fusing respectively.
that's almost 4 in a hundred attempts failing miserably and having to 'pay' more than 3 times the average(305 being the average, obviously).
The variance caused by random number generation on something as essential as skill sockets is too strong, this is why many people get somewhat ticked off. (good random events don't stand out as strongly in memory as bad random events, so any random system around something so essential is going to leave a sour taste when the odds aren't trivial)

RNG systems need to balance frequency of rolls with impact of rolls and probabilities of rolls.
The latest x-com is an example of how not to balance RNG impact.
It features a relatively small number of RNG rolls with high impact on the outcome of the game. (your soldiers dying or enemy troops not dying)
Battle for wesnoth is also an example of how not to balance RNG impact.
(70% hit rate high-damage single-hit attacks in a turn-based game ? TERRIBLE IDEA)

Fusings and Jewellers aren't good candidates for RNG rolls as they are due to the huge impact they have on gameplay via the skills you have compared to the relatively small chance of getting the thing you need per dice roll. This is somewhat offset by the sheer amount of loot drops and orbs you can use, but complaints indicate that it isn't quite in the sweet spot.

Finally.

359 Orb of Fusing for 5L.



Funny.

"

Kittah_Khan wrote:

Spoiler

Why would this be unlikely ?
The odds of this happening are as follows :
(1/305 to get 6L, so 304/305 to fail getting a 6L)
(304/305)^1000 = 0.03747 = 3.75%
so, a 3.75% chance to roll a thousand times and not roll a 6-socket or 6-link with jeweller's / fusing respectively.
that's almost 4 in a hundred attempts failing miserably and having to 'pay' more than 3 times the average(305 being the average, obviously).
The variance caused by random number generation on something as essential as skill sockets is too strong, this is why many people get somewhat ticked off. (good random events don't stand out as strongly in memory as bad random events, so any random system around something so essential is going to leave a sour taste when the odds aren't trivial)

RNG systems need to balance frequency of rolls with impact of rolls and probabilities of rolls.
The latest x-com is an example of how not to balance RNG impact.
It features a relatively small number of RNG rolls with high impact on the outcome of the game. (your soldiers dying or enemy troops not dying)
Battle for wesnoth is also an example of how not to balance RNG impact.
(70% hit rate high-damage single-hit attacks in a turn-based game ? TERRIBLE IDEA)

Fusings and Jewellers aren't good candidates for RNG rolls as they are due to the huge impact they have on gameplay via the skills you have compared to the relatively small chance of getting the thing you need per dice roll. This is somewhat offset by the sheer amount of loot drops and orbs you can use, but complaints indicate that it isn't quite in the sweet spot.

Your math is sound, but your odds are off. Rolling a 6L isn't a 1:306 chance (base, not including repeating link configurations), it's much closer to 3x as unlikely. I say this based on my own experience and how often a friend sets out to 6L something and it takes over 2k fusings (not horribly unlikely). Anyone that has played a lot over the last year will pretty much agree with me here.

Also, you don't account for the repeating socket counts with your jeweler's odds, and because there are only 6 possible outcomes (heavily weighted towards 3 of them, as well), the odds of rolling a 6S is around 1:220.

Also, it's such a terrible thing (sarcasm) that an ARPG makes you earn a super item. It's all about grinding towards perfection, and perfection shouldn't be handed out flippantly. If you think perfection SHOULD be an easy goal, then you should probably quit ARPGs now, it'll save you a lot of heartache.

I love the jeweler and fusing functionality but I'd love an expensive shop option to auto-link/socket gear. For example, you give the vendor your godly-roll Vaal Regalia and 300 jeweler's and the vendor gives back an identical version with 6 sockets. You do the same thing with the 6S Vaal Regalia and 1500 fusings and you get a 6L. It guarantees success at a cost of more orbs than it would take on average. More cost but it would remove the chance of failure.

Video or it never happened, though i do believe its easy to not roll a 6L, and it is possible to blow through over 1k without getting a 6l.

But i think many people are exaggerating the actual orbs they have used.

The i doubt half the people who claim to have wasted 1k orbs havn't had over 500 in thier character life, and thats assuming they used 100% of them to get links on ONE item.

Proof of your claim or it never happened.

I used 1 orb of fusing on each of my chest / weapon, and got a 6l on both of my first tries.

Regardless.. 6L rarity seems perfect atm and i hope it never changes.

It really just seems like people are crying to get it nerfed, or a garunteed way to get a 6l. They can't seem to deal with the sense of loss/time when they farm for something they want, and don't get it.


Tell you what though, if you did use over 1k orbs, when you do get a 6l, its going to feel that much better. Which is a feeling you wouldn't get if they were common.

If they remain to have the same rng, you are going to feel like a million bucks when you use lets say,use 1 orb on that new item and get that 6l.

I hate to be that guy but was running a 68 magic map with like 27% increased items from burning patches and increased magic monsters and this dropped.


It dropped from a magic zombie and that is the result after a stack of chaos. It still has a long way to go but a freaking 6L from a 68 map. I peed a little.

Just had to share