650 Fusing Orbs + 400 Fusing Orbs

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elationtheory wrote:

i think there should be a hard-cap to fusings.
like if the odds are 1:300 to roll a 5l, vendoring the item to a NPC, together with 500 fusings will guarantee you a 5l.
and the same applies for 6ls.

not enough inventory space? buy inventory space from GGG! or persevere in trying to roll the 6l with fusings. more money to GGG, and it's not like 6ls won't be available to players who don't wish to purchase inventory space. they still have the option to either trade for it, or try to roll one themselves. it's a win-win situation with no one losing out.

and chromatics. if you wanted 6 green slots on a pure armor chest, why not have an option so that you can choose what colors you wanted for a price of say, 300 chroms?

of course the counter argument would be "but RNG is RNG. deal with it!!!111 herp derp".

personally, i think that argument is full of shit.

but if i elaborate, i'll probably derail this thread.

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ExiledToWraeclast wrote:

why would it lose value? just because there's a guaranteed method of obtaining linked sockets won't drive the price of the fusing down the drain. And to begin with we have no recipes for a fusing orb either. You find plenty, sell it to the interested buyers, and keep the whole going. It isn't that likely to flood the market with worthless fusings because there still won't be hundreds of fusing orbs to throw about. The technical value of a 5l would even go up rather than be as it is now - it would be worth 300 fusings + whatever if high enough level, but of course if it applied to ALL low level 5 and 6l items the econo would be totally ruined and 5ls - 6ls will be literally the stone of jordan for PoE, with orbs becoming the country cousins. Then we'll have folks who could store more 5ls because of invo space, an so forth.... yeah it's getting really complicated here on out.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

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TehHammer wrote:

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

...Long inaccurate post on fusings...

Based on the frequency of 6Ls taking more than 1k fusings, and the frequency of fusings taking more than 2k fusings, the odds aren't 1:306 (raw, not counting repeating link configs that would force a reroll). They're much closer to triple or even quadruple that. I've posted on it several times. I have seen around 10k+ 6S configs over the last year and 3 months (most thanks to an exploit) and I've seen 2 6Ls. Odds ARE NOT 1:306. Nearly anyone at the top of the ladders consistently in closed beta would agree with me.

The first two points are accurate -- we know the method of how the game determines this -- the only thing that could be wrong is the exact rate. If you believe the rate is wrong, feed me data.

Given a proper data set:
- given a chance per attempt of 1/x, the mean should be about x.
- the median should be the solution of .5=sigma[1,k,((x-1)/x)^(i-1)/x], where you're solving for k, 1/x is the chance per attempt, and i is the sigma increment. I'm going to work on simplifying this for easier reverse engineering.
- the upper quartile should be double the median (if x fusings give you a 50% chance of missing, with double that amount you have a 25% chance of missing).

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ggsnake wrote:

Since the fuse rate for 5L or even 6L seems so absurdly low, it actually makes more sense to take a 5L/6L white item and waste 350 alchemy&scouring/chaos orbs on it, rather than 1000 fusings. At least thats my experience so far.

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sputter wrote:

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ggsnake wrote:

Since the fuse rate for 5L or even 6L seems so absurdly low, it actually makes more sense to take a 5L/6L white item and waste 350 alchemy&scouring/chaos orbs on it, rather than 1000 fusings. At least thats my experience so far.

This is what most people do....