The Hoarder - My Divination Card for 1 Exalted Orb

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Faendris wrote:

I am fairly certain that you simply do not understand how drops are calculated. The drop rates of currency items do not have the same meaning as the drop rates of divination cards. This is what Chris explained in his post. This is what everyone else is trying to tell you. Of course, if you think that Chris was lying about that and that everyone but you is wrong, then it makes perfect sense what you are saying.

Radio broadcast: "There is a wrong-way driver on highway 11". Driver: "One? I see hundreds!"

Next thing he's gonna do is to tell you to stop quoting "Chris this" and "Chris that" and that you should "start thinking for yourself" :p

at least those drop rates confirmed ( not needed but still ) that the ratio 1 et = 5 exalts is the biggest scam ever in this game.

@Bhavv:

True, it is not really clear at this point. But I think you are being misguided by the fact that the site owner wrongfully dumped his database values of divination cards in the orb section. It wouldn't surprise me the guy equated apples with oranges.

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Malone wrote:

at least those drop rates confirmed ( not needed but still ) that the ratio 1 et = 5 exalts is the biggest scam ever in this game.

Just checked, if the numbers are comparable and constitute a ratio, an exalted is 53 times more likely to drop than an eternal (and an eternal 30 times more likely to drop than a mirror). That's weird.

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Jerle wrote:

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Faendris wrote:

I am fairly certain that you simply do not understand how drops are calculated. The drop rates of currency items do not have the same meaning as the drop rates of divination cards. This is what Chris explained in his post. This is what everyone else is trying to tell you. Of course, if you think that Chris was lying about that and that everyone but you is wrong, then it makes perfect sense what you are saying.

Radio broadcast: "There is a wrong-way driver on highway 11". Driver: "One? I see hundreds!"

Next thing he's gonna do is to tell you to stop quoting "Chris this" and "Chris that" and that you should "start thinking for yourself" :p

Chris could simply explain exactly how drop rates are calculated and publish all the droprate figures for everyone to see, which would be the most helpful thing any of the devs could do for this game.

But unless they do then they only have reasons to hide the actual figures. I dont get why I would just blindly follow whatever Chris says with zero supporting evidence just because he said so, seems to me to be exactly what sheeple do.

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bhavv wrote:

But unless they do then they only have reasons to hide the actual figures. I dont get why I would just blindly follow whatever Chris says with zero supporting evidence just because he said so, seems to me to be exactly what sheeple do.

And you cherry pick a few facts, draw some wild conclusion from it, stick to that conclusion no matter how many times everyone points out everything else that contradicts that, and then assume that the authorities and anyone who supports them are clearly out to get you...seems to me to be exactly what crazy conspiracy theorists do...

As for the units, for all we know, it could be something like this:

First it rolls type of item to drop. Then rolls for the chance of a specific item in that category.

If it rolls that a div card will drop, then this particular card has a 2100 out of X chance to be the one picked.

If it rolls that a currency item will drop, then an exalt has a 1600 out of Y chance to drop.

Note that X and Y may be COMPLETELY different numbers AND that both are dependent on the chance of that whole category being selected in the first place as well. So yeah, it's perfectly reasonable for him to say that those two numbers can't be directly compared like you are trying to do.

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Jojas wrote:

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Malone wrote:

at least those drop rates confirmed ( not needed but still ) that the ratio 1 et = 5 exalts is the biggest scam ever in this game.

Just checked, if the numbers are comparable and constitute a ratio, an exalted is 53 times more likely to drop than an eternal (and an eternal 30 times more likely to drop than a mirror). That's weird.

why weird ?

This thread makes a good case for withholding drop rates from the community. Pages and pages of toxic interaction instead of intelligent, grounded theorycrafting is obviously in GGG's best interest.

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Malone wrote:

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Jojas wrote:

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Malone wrote:

at least those drop rates confirmed ( not needed but still ) that the ratio 1 et = 5 exalts is the biggest scam ever in this game.

Just checked, if the numbers are comparable and constitute a ratio, an exalted is 53 times more likely to drop than an eternal (and an eternal 30 times more likely to drop than a mirror). That's weird.

why weird ?

Weird was the wrong word, "Huh!" would have been the better one. Afaik many people suspected that eternals drop way less often than their price in exalteds suggested, but 53:1? That's huge.

There are very few player using massive number of eternal in the game, and their interest is to make you think that 4:1 or 5:1 is a fair ratio. If GGG had mentionned the drop rate of the eternal, maybe you wouldnt see dozen of 6xT1 items in the game today. This is why the eternal trade was the biggest scam in the game so far.