The Hoarder - My Divination Card for 1 Exalted Orb

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Faendris wrote:

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Malone wrote:

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Hodari wrote:

There are two factors that affect the value of an item. Supply AND demand. Even if they are extremely rare, if there isn't much demand either, the value will go down. Even if something is relatively common, but there IS a lot of demand for it, the value will go up. That isn't a scam. That's basic economics.

Yeah. Unfortunately cartel or trust are not part of the basic economics so you have no clue about it ?

I think you vastly underestimate the volume and the complexity of the PoE market. Due to the significant number of players who actively trade it is very hard to do long term manipulation of currency exchange rates that are not backed by true demand/supply. For example, right now, the market will soak up any et at 5ex or lower and you will not be able to sell any at higher than 6ex. If you really wanted to manipulate the market you would have to flood it with thousands (not hundreds) of eternal orbs.

The et:ex rate is low due to the limited usefulness of eternals. Essentially they are used to craft perfect items. Currently you need something like 80-150 tries to roll a 6*T1. If the et price would be equivalent of its rarity then that would mean that the value of a 6*T1 would have to be in the order of 5000 ex. This is clearly not the case. Even at 6ex for 1et it is quite a gable to craft a 6*T1.

TLDR: its supply AND demand not some strange cartel that sets the exchange rates.

Oh, if you really wanted to manipulate the price of items: use well rolled legacies as a target - they are in limited supply ....

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Zhatan wrote:

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Faendris wrote:

I think you vastly underestimate the volume and the complexity of the PoE market. Due to the significant number of players who actively trade it is very hard to do long term manipulation of currency exchange rates that are not backed by true demand/supply. For example, right now, the market will soak up any et at 5ex or lower and you will not be able to sell any at higher than 6ex. If you really wanted to manipulate the market you would have to flood it with thousands (not hundreds) of eternal orbs.

The et:ex rate is low due to the limited usefulness of eternals. Essentially they are used to craft perfect items. Currently you need something like 80-150 tries to roll a 6*T1. If the et price would be equivalent of its rarity then that would mean that the value of a 6*T1 would have to be in the order of 5000 ex. This is clearly not the case. Even at 6ex for 1et it is quite a gable to craft a 6*T1.

TLDR: its supply AND demand not some strange cartel that sets the exchange rates.

Oh, if you really wanted to manipulate the price of items: use well rolled legacies as a target - they are in limited supply ....

You are saying this because you are one of the ppl who are actually running a cartel/monopoly on the market, right? (im guessing this because you are one of the most vocal against the new T1 affixes)

That the volume is large is a joke, cartels/monopoly work in the real world and the volume there is infinitly bigger then poe's small economy. For example, just look at mjölner on hardcore league. The same few ppl buying up all of them and reselling them at a ridiculous price. (earliers it was acuities on standard)

In the end, I think its awsome that the droprates are out in the open so ppl can know what something is actually worth. And by that I mean in the time it takes to "earn" something, not how the sandbox economy values it.

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Malone wrote:

it's not about buying all the eternals to resell them. It's all about buying them at a fixed price to be able to craft with a decent budget. Which is possible when there are very few users that need massive amount of eternals. It's not their interest to start an eternal price war.

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Faendris wrote:

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Malone wrote:

it's not about buying all the eternals to resell them. It's all about buying them at a fixed price to be able to craft with a decent budget. Which is possible when there are very few users that need massive amount of eternals. It's not their interest to start an eternal price war.

I guess we have the same view, then. There is very limited demand for eternals therefore their prices are much lower than their rarity would indicate. This does not require a cartel. It is plan old demand/supply.

As I mentioned before, if I were to use a cartel in order to make profit, I would target legacy items and not currency. If you observe the development of 950%+ facebreakers, for example, it seems likely that someone is buying&hoarding them. This is much more attractive since supply is finite thus if you control the market you can gain a very high profit.

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Zhatan wrote:

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Faendris wrote:

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Malone wrote:

it's not about buying all the eternals to resell them. It's all about buying them at a fixed price to be able to craft with a decent budget. Which is possible when there are very few users that need massive amount of eternals. It's not their interest to start an eternal price war.

I guess we have the same view, then. There is very limited demand for eternals therefore their prices are much lower than their rarity would indicate. This does not require a cartel. It is plan old demand/supply.

As I mentioned before, if I were to use a cartel in order to make profit, I would target legacy items and not currency. If you observe the development of 950%+ facebreakers, for example, it seems likely that someone is buying&hoarding them. This is much more attractive since supply is finite thus if you control the market you can gain a very high profit.

Hoarding legacy facebreakers seems like a really stupid idea since they are very rarley used and ppl can get by without them. Hoarding buildenabling legendaries (and legacies) would be much more profitable, as many ppl already noticed. Just look at windrippers, mjölners etc. They are all hoarded by the same player/players.

BUT the most profitable thing so far have been crafting, without any competition (with the exception of early ubers). And yes, you are part of that.

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The perception of how profitable crafting items is, is highly distorted by a couple of very visible (sometimes als very lucky) weapon crafts. Of course you will not believe me since I do belong to the evil cartel :).

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Shagsbeard wrote:

That model assumes a demand that's shared by the entire community. Demand for items is different within the different communities of players. The supply of eternals comes from players who don't particularly value them... thus they're "cheap"... when you can find them.

There's a role for a middleman. Someone who buys up eternals at lower prices from people who want value for them now, and sells them in bulk at a mark up to the people who want them but don't want to waste their time shopping for them.

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Faendris wrote:

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candoerfer wrote:

If you think that the droprate of your card would be common enough to significantly influence the sd. exalt market then you are wrong.

Obviously this depends on the drop rate of the card, the number of cards required for the turn-in and the area where the card drops. My guess would be that the drop rate of the cards should be at least that of the target multiplied by the number of cards - possibly larger. Otherwhise the concept of Divination Cards would be just plain uninteresting/bland/boring. If that is the case, then you just might underestimate the power of (directed) farming.

We shall see how this plays out. It's a fun experiment.