Mirror Of Kalandra estimated drop rate.

So I stumbled over this post http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/13353/page/3/#p309190, about Chris chatting about Mirror Of Kalandra.

Back in beta, he said one drops every 3 days, on average. It is also said in that chat that around 200 players are playing. Assuming that 200 players were playing at each moment on average, this means that one Mirror drops every 200*72 hours of gameplay. If you play around 4 hours a day, you will get one Mirror every 10 years, on average (if drop rate is still the similar), give or take a factor of maybe 2-3. Good luck finding one :P.

edit: BTW, the average time people spent on reading and posting in a thread seems to be below 10s ;).
200 players online at that time gives a roughly the number of players online on average. 5 hours later it is likely a similar number, just other players.

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Onestone wrote:

So I stumbled over this post http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/13353/page/3/#p309190, about Chris chatting about Mirror Of Kalandra.

Back in beta, he said one drops every 3 days, on average. It is also said in that chat that around 200 players are playing. Assuming that 200 players were playing at each moment on average, this means that one Mirror drops every 200*72 hours of gameplay. If you play around 4 hours a day, you will get one Mirror every 10 years, on average (if drop rate is still the similar), give or take a factor of maybe 2-3. Good luck finding one :P.

If you think only 200 people are playing at a time you are mistaken.

nvm just realized you were talking about in closed beta, not open.

you assumed the 200 players were on 24 hrs/day?

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EomMage wrote:

you assumed the 200 players were on 24 hrs/day?

bots never sleep :)

approaching zero

PoE probably has like 30-40k players online daily. The player count decline is a myth.

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EomMage wrote:

you assumed the 200 players were on 24 hrs/day?

He assumed that the average number of players logged on in a given moment is 200.


This also assumes that your IIQ/IIR would match the mean of those 200 players. I would probably put the mean IIQ/IIR of the game population pretty low, somewhere around 20/10 (Complete Guess). It would be interesting to see some actual statistics about average stats of characters and things like that, if anyone has access to an API to look at that info.

Still a higher drop rate than Zods were.

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DestroTheGod wrote:

PoE probably has like 30-40k players online daily. The player count decline is a myth.

lol

my estimated guess is
.000001