Game is dropping like a stone

OP might be a bit harsh in his wording but the point stands, a lot of people look at data but don't necessarily know how to interpret data correctly. The context is the holiday should give most popular games a visible boost, same reason Christmas is traditionally one of the biggest release windows for movies. Last 1-2 days the other top live-service games on steam still retained steady numbers, like CS2 24h peak at 1.5M is insane. Most of the top 10-15 had their highest 24h peak in 2-4weeks yesterday. Even big single player titles like CIV6, Cyberpunk, Elden Ring, Wukong, Baldur's Gate 3 had decent numbers and did not go below their 1 month average. PoE2 still had 24h peak of 400k-ish last weekend, but last 24h it was 300k. Yeah yeah it's a relatively new release but it shouldn't be dropping from 400-450k peak to 300k peak during the biggest holiday when other games numbers are going up. I suspect the 'fun factor' being severely lacking for endgame (and lacking everywhere for a lot of casuals) might have played a part. Who, in his right mind, would want to play a game that's extremely punishing and time wasting on Christmas of all days?

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z3mcneil#3966 wrote:

OP might be a bit harsh in his wording but the point stands, a lot of people look at data but don't necessarily know how to interpret data correctly. The context is the holiday should give most popular games a visible boost, same reason Christmas is traditionally one of the biggest release windows for movies. Last 1-2 days the other top live-service games on steam still retained steady numbers, like CS2 24h peak at 1.5M is insane. Most of the top 10-15 had their highest 24h peak in 2-4weeks yesterday. Even big single player titles like CIV6, Cyberpunk, Elden Ring, Wukong, Baldur's Gate 3 had decent numbers and did not go below their 1 month average. PoE2 still had 24h peak of 400k-ish last weekend, but last 24h it was 300k. Yeah yeah it's a relatively new release but it shouldn't be dropping from 400-450k peak to 300k peak during the biggest holiday when other games numbers are going up. I suspect the 'fun factor' being severely lacking for endgame (and lacking everywhere for a lot of casuals) might have played a part. Who, in his right mind, would want to play a game that's extremely punishing and time wasting on Christmas of all days?

Super fascinating context, thanks for adding it!

"Like a stone" is not accurate. It would be more realistic - and, I think, better for your point - if you told the truth, which is that there are peaks and valleys, but the peaks keep getting lower. Less people are booting up the game every day.

Dude Chill

There are all sorts of problems.
But it is early.
Lots of balance issues lots of mechanics that probably need to be ironed out fixed or removed.

The numbers will fall becasue the game wont be for everyone.
The same people will be back on launch day to see if anything has changed.
If the game is solid on launch the numbers will go up .

I would like to point out that it’s not a weekend and a lot of people still work, even on the 24/25th. Also, I would like to point out that for the ones that don’t work, it’s Christmas, which means potential holiday travels, family gatherings, not everyone is playing games.

I think waiting til this coming/next sat/sun to see the numbers would be a better measurement.

1. I didn't include xmas in my projected trajectory.
2. 150k loss over a steady median before xmas

People do not realize what these numbers mean.
Based on average gametime per day and the average length of the game, it is way, way too early to have a huge drop off. Because yes, this is a huge drop off.
And this will be heavily reinformed in about 2-3 weeks if GGG does not act in a big way.
I didn't write this post to be a hyperbolic doomsayer.
I say this because I am worried, because I am good at deterministic projections and have followed games development over the last decade.
I know what the graph means.

People who offhandedly thinks this is "normal" or "expected" for any game like POE really have no clue what they are talking about.
It should have risen over the first month if it was considered an overall great game, or at the very least retained a lot bigger margin of players.

It tells the story so many elitist "get good" refused to acknowledge -up towards 20% quit because the game was too slow and overall tedious over the campaign alone.
The rest of the players are about to hit the different map and ascendancy bottlenecks over the next few weeks.
It will not be pretty.

And it could have been avoided quite easily with some relatively small changes.
That is the sad part of this.

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Andreuswolf#0361 wrote:

"Like a stone" is not accurate. It would be more realistic - and, I think, better for your point - if you told the truth, which is that there are peaks and valleys, but the peaks keep getting lower. Less people are booting up the game every day.

20% drop off over two weeks for a game that was projected to have content and play time for a lot more for the average player is incredibly bad.

Great games increase numbers over the first month based on campaign alone.

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Orionstar#4752 wrote:

I would like to point out that it’s not a weekend and a lot of people still work, even on the 24/25th. Also, I would like to point out that for the ones that don’t work, it’s Christmas, which means potential holiday travels, family gatherings, not everyone is playing games.

I think waiting til this coming/next sat/sun to see the numbers would be a better measurement.

I didn't include xmas on my projectory analysis at all.
150k drop off is median averaged over the games first two weeks.

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Jitter912#4278 wrote:

Dude Chill

There are all sorts of problems.
But it is early.
Lots of balance issues lots of mechanics that probably need to be ironed out fixed or removed.

The numbers will fall becasue the game wont be for everyone.
The same people will be back on launch day to see if anything has changed.
If the game is solid on launch the numbers will go up .

Dude, we could have a great game before launch day if GGG bothers to listen to the majority of players and make a few smaller changes.

"it's bad, come back in a year and cross your fingers".
Oh, no worries then.

I'm sure it's been said.. But you do know what time of year it is right?