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I think until the end of the event, only 1% of players will receive the helmet
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Posted byTraneMAK#3462on Nov 30, 2017, 3:04:06 PM
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What a bollox event mate, I've been watching almost 9 hours got nothing.
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Posted bylordon#3921on Nov 30, 2017, 3:14:39 PM
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"
gvieira wrote:
"
Melanholic7 wrote:
i think
1) Ppl which didnt get hat - write about this. And ppl who won hat - they wont tell u this. = u see only unhappy ppl.
2) Chances are ALWAYS 1%. Ppl write something like "at 36 hours u should win hat at 99% chance". No. This works only for long terms with infinity attemps. With 999999999999999999999999999 attempts - yeah,u can see some average number according to randomness. And not in our situation - cause its kinda realistic that u can get 1-99 numbers 200 or 1000 times in a row. And not 100 which u need. (and after this - u would get this "100" number 200 times in a row but its too late for u)
sry for bad english. I just wanted to tell - for 2 weeks - not all ppl will get a hat. Even if they 24/7 watching stream.
1- You are right, there is confirmation bias at some level, but I don't think its that much.
2- Lol, you are so wrong there.
Your chance of NOT getting it is 0.99 in the first try, 0.99^2 in the second, 0.99^3 in the third and so it goes. The chance of getting it in "n" tries is 1-0.99^n, so in 36 hours your chance of getting it is 1-0.99^(12*36) = 98,70%
So its ok to say that you have 99% chance of getting it in 36 hours.
And about what you said "I just wanted to tell - for 2 weeks - not all ppl will get a hat"
The expected result is that anyone that stays enought time should get it.
in 2 weeks the chance to NOT get it is 0.99^(12*24*14) = 2.5*10^-18, or 0.00000000000000025%
the one who is wrong is you, all the rolls are independent because there is no accumulation.
in all the runs you have a 99% chance of not obtaining it.
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Posted byHellshout#6962on Nov 30, 2017, 3:21:01 PM
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"
lordon wrote:
What a bollox event mate, I've been watching almost 9 hours got nothing.
After 9 hours only 2 out of 3 will have received a drop.
After 12 hours 3 out of 4.
After 13,3 hours 4 out of 5.
After 19 hours 9 out of 10.
Edit: just got a drop, had twitch running on phone to avaoid beeing marked afk
Last edited by ColeNOXyd2nd#7546 on Nov 30, 2017, 3:27:26 PM
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Posted byColeNOXyd2nd#7546on Nov 30, 2017, 3:25:10 PM
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"
gandhar0 wrote:
"
Damoochie wrote:
What does this last part mean about the streamer viewerlist and where does it display said list to check?
Right under the Twitch-chat box you see this icon.
Just click it and check if your linked Twitch name is listed.
You need to be logged in of course,while "watching" streams, otherwise the Twitch drops will never happen. Only then your name is listed in a given streamers viewer list.I put the word in brackets because you will likely not watch a streamer for hours and just put the stream tab to background while at lowest resolution & muted.
Got it. Thanks for the graphic. I'm listed... but what did you also mean by 'the same name which is linked to PoE'?
--------------- THE MOOCH --------------
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Posted byDamoochie#1947on Nov 30, 2017, 3:25:50 PM
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From QA on Twitch....
"
Q. As a viewer, how can I tell if a broadcaster has opted out of having Drops in their channel?
A. Unfortunately if a broadcaster has opted-out of participating in Drops, there will not be a specific notification.
Perhaps we're just watching scummy streamers with disabled (opted out) twitch drops in an attempt to keep us watching much longer than intended by GGG. And there's no way to check if they have it on or off. This is great. We can't check.
I think they (streamers) might have something to do with this. *BR*
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Posted byRazzenit#7859on Nov 30, 2017, 3:27:50 PM
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around 50h Build
OroFlickerstrike 3.0.2 - https://de.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/41
CritBow 3.0.2 - https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/1461449
4 Day UberlabReady 3.0.2 - https://de.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/27
Youtubechannel - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WXJ307NeNDQ
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Posted bySeelenwolf1#6975on Nov 30, 2017, 3:31:21 PM
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"
Seelenwolf1 wrote:
around 50h
Gz. I'm at about 30 hours now I reckon. No hat.
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Posted bySabreWolfy#5106on Nov 30, 2017, 3:34:23 PM
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"
Damoochie wrote:
"
gandhar0 wrote:
"
Damoochie wrote:
What does this last part mean about the streamer viewerlist and where does it display said list to check?
Right under the Twitch-chat box you see this icon.
Just click it and check if your linked Twitch name is listed.
You need to be logged in of course,while "watching" streams, otherwise the Twitch drops will never happen. Only then your name is listed in a given streamers viewer list.I put the word in brackets because you will likely not watch a streamer for hours and just put the stream tab to background while at lowest resolution & muted.
Got it. Thanks for the graphic. I'm listed... but what did you also mean by 'the same name which is linked to PoE'?
Some people here have for sure multiple Twitch accounts.I mean, the Twitch name you linked/connected for the twitch drops must be the same as in the viewer list of a streamer, otherwise the dice rolls for the helmet will not count.Example: You connected Twitch name XYZ123 with POE for the drops.Only thing what you have to ensure is that you are logged in with your twitch name XYZ123 and passively (muted,low res, background) watch a streamer. Thats is all.
Masterpiece of 3.16 lore
"A mysterious figure appears out of nowhere, trying to escape from something you can't see. She hands you a rusty-looking device called the Blood Crucible and urges you to implant it into your body."
Only usable with Ethanol Flasks Last edited by gandhar0#5532 on Nov 30, 2017, 5:36:50 PM
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Posted bygandhar0#5532on Nov 30, 2017, 3:34:46 PM
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I just want to say that after probably more than 30 hours, i relinked my twitch account and one hour later watching Mathil's stream i got the message.
it seems that being idle in twitch doesn't change a thing.
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Posted bySanfiz#4027on Nov 30, 2017, 3:36:03 PM
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