Announcements - Watch Path of Exile live and win a Helmet Skin with Twitch Drops! - Forum

" gvieira wrote: " RestInPieces wrote: " D3s7r0y3r wrote: there should be over 1k people in zizarians stream alone that get a hat every hour but you see pretty much no one posting anything about getting one. this whole thing seems really shady so far. There are people who are getting it, it's just that according to the probabilities a alot people will get really screwed and will have to wait 48+ hours (like me, no surprise there). Actually according to the probabilities only a few people that watched 48h should not get it. In every 10.000 that watches 48h, the expected number of people that wouldn't get it is only 32. Based on the number of people complaining that they didn't get it in 40+ hours I think either GGG didn't give us the right chance or there is something wrong with the system (maybe twitch's fault?). i think 1) Ppl which didnt get hat - write about this. And ppl who won hat - they wont tell u this. = u see only unhappy ppl. 2) Chances are ALWAYS 1%. Ppl write something like "at 36 hours u should win hat at 99% chance". No. This works only for long terms with infinity attemps. With 999999999999999999999999999 attempts - yeah,u can see some average number according to randomness. And not in our situation - cause its kinda realistic that u can get 1-99 numbers 200 or 1000 times in a row. And not 100 which u need. (and after this - u would get this "100" number 200 times in a row but its too late for u) sry for bad english. I just wanted to tell - for 2 weeks - not all ppl will get a hat. Even if they 24/7 watching stream.	Posted by Melanholic7#2425 on Nov 30, 2017, 2:42:10 PM Quote this Post
I've just surrendered. I despise twitch too much to continue this.	Posted by Mark_is_a_n00b#1185 on Nov 30, 2017, 2:44:21 PM Quote this Post
" gandhar0 wrote: " evergreen89 wrote: " gandhar0 wrote: Got my Helmet MTX yesterday here after approx-8-9 hrs in total (with some breaks in between). You get a message on the PoE Website right under your forum name. Btw. Got an Deicide Flame Helmet. you get yellow status or green on twitch? I was most of the time AFK & muted, low-res,put the stream tab in background and forgot about it. People dont need to watch the streams actively or type anything. Only thing that matters is that your Twitch account name is in the viewerlist of the streamer, the same name which is linked to PoE. What does this last part mean about the streamer viewerlist and where does it display said list to check? --------------- THE MOOCH --------------	Posted by Damoochie#1947 on Nov 30, 2017, 2:48:32 PM Quote this Post
After 20 hrs it feels like scam! This is more view time than I have in one year on Twitch.	Posted by SppokyVega#5475 on Nov 30, 2017, 2:52:31 PM Quote this Post
" Melanholic7 wrote: i think 1) Ppl which didnt get hat - write about this. And ppl who won hat - they wont tell u this. = u see only unhappy ppl. 2) Chances are ALWAYS 1%. Ppl write something like "at 36 hours u should win hat at 99% chance". No. This works only for long terms with infinity attemps. With 999999999999999999999999999 attempts - yeah,u can see some average number according to randomness. And not in our situation - cause its kinda realistic that u can get 1-99 numbers 200 or 1000 times in a row. And not 100 which u need. (and after this - u would get this "100" number 200 times in a row but its too late for u) sry for bad english. I just wanted to tell - for 2 weeks - not all ppl will get a hat. Even if they 24/7 watching stream. 1) Yes there is probably some sort of bias towards the people who haven't received the MTX to write as opposed to the people who have gotten it. 2) Yes, each seperate roll is only 1% chance, but if you roll 200 times you don't have 1% chance. The chance of rolling at least 1 in 200 rolls is about 86.6% statistically. And while yes, you can get roll 1-99 1000 times in a row, the chances of rolling 100 at least once is around 99.9957%. That is how statistics work.	Posted by Hentai_Bunny#6756 on Nov 30, 2017, 2:53:01 PM Quote this Post
40+ hours here and still nothing :)	Posted by evergreen89#0759 on Nov 30, 2017, 2:53:33 PM Quote this Post
Am I supposed to get a message on Twitch or the PoE website that I received the headpiece? Last edited by masenko#3159 on Nov 30, 2017, 2:56:48 PM	Posted by masenko#3159 on Nov 30, 2017, 2:56:38 PM Quote this Post
I saw on Reddit that someone running uBlock got a hat. What about other script or tracker blockers? Is there some ad or tracking script that should be permitted? Last edited by SabreWolfy#5106 on Nov 30, 2017, 2:57:30 PM	Posted by SabreWolfy#5106 on Nov 30, 2017, 2:56:56 PM Quote this Post
" Damoochie wrote: What does this last part mean about the streamer viewerlist and where does it display said list to check? Right under the Twitch-chat box you see this icon. Just click it and check if your linked Twitch name is listed. Spoiler You need to be logged in of course,while "watching" streams, otherwise the Twitch drops will never happen. Only then your name is listed in a given streamers viewer list.I put the word in brackets because you will likely not watch a streamer for hours and just put the stream tab to background while at lowest resolution & muted. Masterpiece of 3.16 lore "A mysterious figure appears out of nowhere, trying to escape from something you can't see. She hands you a rusty-looking device called the Blood Crucible and urges you to implant it into your body." Only usable with Ethanol Flasks Last edited by gandhar0#5532 on Nov 30, 2017, 3:06:33 PM	Posted by gandhar0#5532 on Nov 30, 2017, 2:58:24 PM Quote this Post
" Melanholic7 wrote: i think 1) Ppl which didnt get hat - write about this. And ppl who won hat - they wont tell u this. = u see only unhappy ppl. 2) Chances are ALWAYS 1%. Ppl write something like "at 36 hours u should win hat at 99% chance". No. This works only for long terms with infinity attemps. With 999999999999999999999999999 attempts - yeah,u can see some average number according to randomness. And not in our situation - cause its kinda realistic that u can get 1-99 numbers 200 or 1000 times in a row. And not 100 which u need. (and after this - u would get this "100" number 200 times in a row but its too late for u) sry for bad english. I just wanted to tell - for 2 weeks - not all ppl will get a hat. Even if they 24/7 watching stream. 1- You are right, there is confirmation bias at some level, but I don't think its that much. 2- Lol, you are so wrong there. Your chance of NOT getting it is 0.99 in the first try, 0.99^2 in the second, 0.99^3 in the third and so it goes. The chance of getting it in "n" tries is 1-0.99^n, so in 36 hours your chance of getting it is 1-0.99^(1236) = 98,70% So its ok to say that you have 99% chance of getting it in 36 hours. And about what you said "I just wanted to tell - for 2 weeks - not all ppl will get a hat" The expected result is that anyone that stays enought time should get it. in 2 weeks the chance to NOT get it is 0.99^(122414) = 2.510^-18, or 0.00000000000000025% IGN: vieira	Posted by gvieira#7895 on Nov 30, 2017, 3:00:37 PM Quote this Post