Donald Trump

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DalaiLama wrote:

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Antnee wrote:

The last time the US saw this level of politically inspired violence was 64-68. Just sayin....

1964?



Tie-Dye was invented! Are you suggesting Trump or Bernie or Hillary is going to make tie dye great again?

Interesting that the invention of tie dye was actually filmed...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doyPMOYS9eE

http://www.worldwidehippies.com/the-actual-invention-of-tie-dye-by-hippies-on-acid-was-actually-caught-on-film-in-1964-video/

Yeah, '64.

Well, what a shitshow, for both sides (there are many sides, but you know what I'm talking about).

I'm out two weeks and you make a mess here, :P

Death threats are a no-no for me (not even towards Trump supporters, Trump himself or Hillary, shame on you! SHAAAAAAAAAAAME). Also, that bait and switch Trump made about the whole Trump University thing was hilarious (so people pontificate about race without any rigor rather than talk about his case). And Bernie being stubborn in the face of certain defeat.

This may interest you all: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/nyregion/donald-trump-atlantic-city.html?_r=0

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DalaiLama wrote:

The space above isn't blank. It's a moment of silence for our dearly departed dual party election system.

The dual party election system was very far from a free market of ideas, so its fate was always going to be the one of a oligopoly or monopoly with the reduced quality of governance. I wouldn't really miss that mess.

PS: For fuck's sake, machines are not going to replace us! Humans are not horses. Not again the luddite fallacy. I'd be more concerned about how to manage the transition towards a more automatized economy rather than about some elite nuking us or permanent mass unemployment (because without returns to scale, machines tend to make no fucking sense). We are in the middle of an information revolution, so in the long run we'll invent new jobs when we don't have to do a lot of manual stuff anymore (it would have been unthinkable to talk about people playing videogames for a living long time ago, or about robot manteinance, IA programming, Pewdiepie and so on).

Say it with me, "President Trump"

Better get used to it.

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NeroNoah wrote:

The dual party election system was very far from a free market of ideas, so its fate was always going to be the one of a oligopoly or monopoly with the reduced quality of governance. I wouldn't really miss that mess.

I may have been hasty in that assumption (based on Google trying to sway the electorate via sneaky techniques). Unless I missed a memo, ABC isn't known as a right wing organization, but they made no qualms about Hillary doing something potentially very unethical in possible return for political donations.

I wasn't looking for it, it just popped up while I was trying to find Abba's Fernando video (the intro to the song had somehow got stuck in my head).

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-donor-sensitive-intelligence-board/story?id=39710624

Rajiv K. Fernando - allegedly appointed to a board that helps determine nuclear security in returns for his dedicated campaign contributions

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NeroNoah wrote:

PS: For fuck's sake, machines are not going to replace us!

They already are in many jobs, and that trend is going to accelerate in the next 10-15 years.





The signs are obvious enough that even some very conservative thinkers are looking at some sort of structured minimum income for everyone to prevent societal collapse.

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NeroNoah wrote:

We are in the middle of an information revolution, so in the long run we'll invent new jobs when we don't have to do a lot of manual stuff anymore

Service jobs used to be a safe bet, but many of those are next on the chopping block. They won't all be cut out of course, but you'll start to see service engineers running teams of robotic service droids. The cost is affordable now to do replacements, but the technology isn't quite smooth enough to prevent societal backlash.

The problem isn't that a business can't be run economically with people - it can. It's that all the extra factors governments and consumers expect from the business erode the profitability very quickly.

That "delicate balance" that exists with natural organisms that allows them to go extinct? It exists in businesses as well.

The machine replacements are just a tiny percentage hedge against going bankrupt. No business in their right mind wants to lead the charge here. If everyone else starts doing it, and the choice is going broke or joining the trend, which way do you think they will go?

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NeroNoah wrote:

(it would have been unthinkable to talk about people playing videogames for a living long time ago, or about robot manteinance, IA programming, Pewdiepie and so on).

It wasn't a common job because the technology didn't even exist before. Programming is getting so bloated and convoluted that machines **WILL** be writing code, because optimal solutions are no longer desired or needed.

If machines have already begun replacing humans in porn, the other jobs can't be all that safe.

On a positive note, maybe we can go back to being cowboys and lassoing the bad guys:



https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=864592616980105&id=860412564064777

You know, at the same time a lot of the developed world is reducing their populations (unless they go the immigration route).

I've heard about the UBI many times (and the NIT too), and while I do think it will help, I imagine the long run, it will be less about a lot of people living on welfare, and more about the world adapting (at least if the governments don't go stupid, like trying to limit access to contraceptives, not helping with retraining for displaced people, and things like that). We are in a transition that can be well managed.

Change is painful, but if we could change from wilderness to civilization, and from farm jobs to factories and more, we can make this transition too.

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NeroNoah wrote:

Change is painful, but if we could change from wilderness to civilization, and from farm jobs to factories and more, we can make this transition too.

Some people see the dancer below spinning to her left, some see her spinning to the right. Some people can change the way they see her spinning, while others can't ever change their perspective.

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NeroNoah wrote:

We are in the middle of an information revolution, so in the long run we'll invent new jobs when we don't have to do a lot of manual stuff anymore (it would have been unthinkable to talk about people playing videogames for a living long time ago, or about robot manteinance, IA programming, Pewdiepie and so on).

Not everyone can be a programmer or an entertainer for a living. The former will pay very low wages because of the extreme competition, the latter is logically impossible because being a financially successful entertainer depends on popularity.

There are way more choices than that, use your imagination. There is plenty of stuff that can be hard or impossible to automatize (tailor made products and services, specially if it's not in a mass scale). Hell, you can make the work week a little shorter if there is so much productivity, as it was made when weekends became a thing. Anyway, I'm not advocating for letting things be, I'm just disagreeing that there won't be any job to do. If it I'm wrong, it will probably be a post scarcity society rather than Deus Ex.

About entertainers: given the explosion in, let's say, the indie videogame scene one would be led to believe there is a bigger space in the market for entertainers (it behaves more like monopolistic competition rather than perfect competition at that scale, so niches are still viable). Also, more free time is more demand for videogames, streamers and so on. It's not as simple as you think.


World population will eventually stabilize (I've heard about some projections for that to happen in this century) and even shrink (specially if a lot of countries develop enough or their populations move to developed countries and integrate properly) reducing the worker supply.

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NeroNoah wrote:

There are way more choices than that, use your imagination. There is plenty of stuff that can be hard or impossible to automatize (tailor made products and services, specially if it's not in a mass scale).

3D printers will take care of that. A few people will initially be designers, and then the best designs will be open source, so even that career won't be big for everyone.

Meet an open source, 3D printed Robot bartender named Andrew:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YvCuU4EWU8

When they aren't so clunky and can do landscaping work, the political fireworks will start. I will expect some human on robot violence.

Our future AI masters will use video of those attacks to determine how they should deal with the human race.

Future robots will probably be self assembling anyways

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xK54Bu9HFRw Ye olde basic self assembly.

A better glimpse of where we're headed - self folding shoes for instance are mentioned:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIEhi_sAkU8

The phrase "busy as a bee" might become "as unemployed as a bee" when the robots take their jobs too (see #7)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3IhGZY0TCE

The ONLY thing that will slow this train wreck down, is companies trying to figure out how people will buy their stuff if the people don't have any jobs. Legislation against it, would only push development towards nations that don't hinder it.

Hence the look at the UBI - not as to whether it is a good idea, but how it can be implemented in the interim period so that economies don't tank as humans are almost all shifted into permanent pension from birth status. The richest groups will get locked in, and after awhile, they will wonder if the poorest 6 billion plus serve any useful function that the richest group needs.

Humans as a sociological group are short term thinkers. Unless we start thinking long term, our species might as well be playing in traffic.

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NeroNoah wrote:

There are way more choices than that, use your imagination. There is plenty of stuff that can be hard or impossible to automatize (tailor made products and services, specially if it's not in a mass scale). Hell, you can make the work week a little shorter if there is so much productivity, as it was made when weekends became a thing. Anyway, I'm not advocating for letting things be, I'm just disagreeing that there won't be any job to do. If it I'm wrong, it will probably be a post scarcity society rather than Deus Ex.

The service industry is the biggest piece of the jobs-economy. If you haven't noticed, self-serve checkout lanes and automated kiosks are spreading like wildfire. Fast food chains are rolling out humanless stores. Hell, even legal legwork is starting to become automated.

Ask me about my time in the Wal-Mart distribution centers...

The thing about calling someone a Luddite is that they were right. But, this time it isn't a mechanical horse, or a steam-powered whatever. Low-level decision making makes up a pretty good chunk of the available job market, wouldn't you say?