The secrets/mysteries of RNG cloud and Why you should not ever stop playing after a godly drop. Ep3

Not all RNG systems are created equally (not equally random) as some would have you believe and there can indeed be patterns for various reasons. Proving patterns consistently is another thing, but it's not always your imagination.

"

Xelios wrote:

Not all RNG systems are created equally (not equally random) as some would have you believe and there can indeed be patterns for various reasons. Proving patterns consistently is another thing, but it's not always your imagination.

I think there prolly is a system.

I got my second gcp on my standard ranger in merc just the other day, a few days before I got my first gcp with a lvl 5 anarchy. Oooh, the league ends today, have they switched the chars over to their parent leagues yet?

So they either have a filter on standard to not drop until merc and to drop anytime in other leagues of choice, or its totally random. I dont feel like I have moved. Its like the red queen or that dude in the gassy spice tank in Dune.

It would be nice for GGG to tell us just how random things really are. Or they could not.

If you care so much, why not inform yourself?

search for Random Number Generator. You will see that they are usually fake and not truly random; but in a game it doesn't make much of a difference. Performance and gameplay is more important, and if it feels random to a high degree that's fine.

the devs themselves probably won't reveal their secret of how their rng works preciseley

"

Dan1986 wrote:

If you care so much, why not inform yourself?

search for Random Number Generator. You will see that they are usually fake and not truly random; but in a game it doesn't make much of a difference. Performance and gameplay is more important, and if it feels random to a high degree that's fine.

the devs themselves probably won't reveal their secret of how their rng works preciseley

Correction, ALL are not truly random.

A true random number generator is essentially impossible - the best we can do is approach true randomness. For example, by having seeds that are harder to be identical (all random number generator programs use an algorithm to turn a seed into a random number), including the standard of current time in milliseconds for the computer on which the generator is being run (often server-hosted to prevent tampering). One of the closest methods to true random is from the decay time of radioactive materials, as decay times are completely and utterly unpredictable. In addition, random.org claims their method of atmospheric noise is really good at approaching true random as well (however, the random.org website is misleading in that it says that these methods are true random number generators - as I've mentioned, that's virtually impossible for a computer, but you can get VERY close). Essentially any accessible random number generator is actually a pseudo-random number generator, and the "true random number generator" methods are not actually efficient enough to be used for something like an online video game.

For security purposes, the lack of a truly random number method is a problem - with the seed value and algorithm known, it's possible to figure out the random number, for example. For a game, the lack of a truly random number is ultimately unimportant - the numbers are sufficiently random that no discernible pattern will exist as long as it is properly coded.

This thread,
entertaining much.

"

MonstaMunch wrote:

"

Inexium wrote:

It's simple :

1) You have a fishing rod and don't want to link it = you are playing with our minds. ( if you did then no problems would have been seen on the thread )
2) You don't have a fishing rod = You were playing with our minds.

In either case, it's GGG fault i guess and ok i forgive you, let's move on. ( ggg fault = the fishing thing driving us all into nutters :D )

It's 100% "my fault" not GGG's, and you're damn right I was playing with your mind whether I actually have 10 rods or none. The fun part was in watching you try to work out whether it was answer 1 or 2. So what? You're here making threads about "santa clause spirit clouds of rng" but I'm not allowed to talk about Jabberjaws? Ironic much?

GG

Ok i just read you link Reboticon. SO yeah we have here, and Wruntjunior confirms, obviousely Pseudo-Random Number Generators.

@AnaLoGMunKy : The cloud of "Gcp drop at early levels" was above you, lucky you :) If only you got the "Exalt drop at Twilight Strand" Cloud :p


So RNG CLOUD is an interesting pattern. Do you think GGG would honor us with a comment that would make us try to understand how this mysterious mechanic works ? I am not sure about it.

Ok i have NEW FEEDBACK.




It seems that the RNG Cloud can stick on a character or on an ACCOUNT.

WHen leveling my characters on Onslaught i got a quality 16Q Flame totem first time.


Several days later ( today, 10 min back ) What a surprise ? a 16Q Flame totem :o, the little story says that i ripped my char after getting that quality 16 flame totem ( 5 min back ) So it's on standard.






Those 2 items dropped for my account in the last 15 days. Why ? I really can't say.


@the guy who got a shav: play more you will get another soon :p

"

MonstaMunch wrote:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

Interesting concept, thanks for pointing it out :-)

I think the idea of apophenia itself is somewhat flawed and apophenic in that it is seeing a pattern of delusion in various random behaviors and attributing it to flawed thinking.

Pattern recognition may very well be what separates us from most of the other animals on our planet.

According to Ray Kurzweil, the typical human brain can process 300 million pattterns simultaneously and this massive patttern recgonition is what enabled us to make such a tremendous leap in capabilities from the other species.

Predictive modeling based on patttern recognition is our normal way of thinking. Science - as ballyhooed as it is, is simply redudant testing of various predictive models.

IOW - RNG theories could be set forth with expectations of what should happen if they were true, and then they could be tested. With enough accurate data, RNG could be reverse engineered from the results.

Apophenia is thus an oxymoron. Carbon dating would be impossible unless there was a real patttern, yet Schrödinger's Cat tells us the patttern of decay is completely random. If the Gambler's Fallacy was completely untrue, all the casinos in Vegas would have gone bankrupt. Even completely random things may have logical and predictable underpinnings. What we see as chaos is a natural progression from higher to lower energy states based on far more factors than we can account for. Randomness applies more often to small scale details and at large scales becomes a recognizable patttern.

There is always a patttern to the data, the problem is how much random data do you need to see the pattern? There are formulas that determine the maxium bounds of how much information is needed (and which any computer chip can be programmed to calculate results from) but the lower rate is not achievable by any single formula.

An expert chess player watching two masters playing might recognize certain pattterns, while an amateur observer declared the expert was experiencing apophonia.

A computer might need 30 seconds to recognize a song while a particular listener will recognize it in 3 notes.

One could say that the song isn't a random patttern, it's a song! In reality, it is a random patttern of pressure waves produced as a chaos by product of the big bang. The number of repetitions of certain frequencies may seem striking, but in a truly random universe they are not only possible, but to be expected. Anything else would invoke some sort of anthropomorphism.

That true randomness itself can and must create complex pattterns (self organization) is de rigeur nowadays, whether it is true or not. The current modus operandi seems to be "Once you eliminate the impossible, the unacceptable and the unimaginable, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth, providing it is financially and politically expedient."

All of this isn't to say people aren't jumping to conclusions because of emotional attachment or limited personal experience as "apophenia" would suggest. We probably are. In some aspects it's because it's fun, in other aspects it's because we really don't have a lot of info to work on. We don't know if game start time or anything else affects the random seed, or how much the seed affects the drops considering other factors.

We do know they have races that are "fixed" and we know that Map quality, character level vs area level, and magic find modifiers such as increased rarity and quantity affect drops. So there is some level of control in the programming. We just don't know what else might affect it.

It is to say that such jumping to conclusions is a normal healthy part of the human intelligence. Sticking to incorrect assumptions when they have been proven wrong or are obviously logically flawed is a problem.

As to whether GGG have some hidden balancing or gifting routines for the RNG, I can't say. I don't recall if Chris ever explicitly included RNG in the various aspects of the game that GGG kept track of and would take a look at to make sure everything balances out.

On that note, it's back to running docks and various other water adjacent areas in search of a fishing rod!

So since we are talking about conspiracy theories...

What do you guys think about Sep 11 twin towers?

"

Inexium wrote:

Hello,


I am still trying to understand how RNG works, the only viable( or at least, satisfying because it cannot be verified) suggestions i found is :


RNG is a cloud that divide its lucky drops from a player to another player, it can give a player some kind of gems and another player some other kind, i think the purpose is to promote trading.

Have you ever experiencing having a specific gem drop for a char all the way from level 1 to merc ? And another kind of drop for another char ? I had for a char a lightning warp drop EACH day, yet in the other side another char would get ANOTHER gem keep droping...

Have you ever experiencing getting the same unique in a row ( because you had nice iir ofc ) ?
One day, i saw a Wanderlust dropping 3 times on the same instance ( mud ).

IMO, the RNG cloud divide its treasures by real random numbers but it contains 2 important things :

1 ) Attraction for iir.
2 ) Santa Claus spirit.



Everybody knows about stacking iir and iiq, but have you ever tried to abuse the spirit of rng ?


It's simple :


If you ever get a nice/insane drop( Mirror, Shavronnes, Soul taker.. ) = DO NOT STOP PLAYING! Go find the similar drop in the next hour, the cloud favor is maybe still here.



Example : This guy found 2X Soul takers, withing 2 hours.

http://www.twitch.tv/hendrixonfire/c/2577210

I bet if someone of you finds a mirror, he would find another one if he keeps playin the same day.


Hard to believe hah ? Well those are just presumptions. Debate.

I recall that when Cyclone first came out, I tried finding it with three different characters. The first two had no luck, but the third one found five cyclone gems within a short period of time. I attributed it to GGG wanting some cyclones to drop so that people could try it out and that not enough were dropping or being used so they upped the rates.

No idea why it really happened, just my thoughts on it.