6-socket Orb of Fusing Community Log (done)
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I did some maths, and i'm 95% certain that i've worked out the system behind fusing.
Each link is formed independently of the others, with a ~25-26% chance of any individual link forming. The number is 26 if you take the data at face value, but i think its 25 because of some bias, plus whoever coded it probably just picked a nice round number like 1/4. This means that : the exact chance of getting a 6 link from 1 fusing is 1 in 1024 : the exact chance of getting a 5 link from 1 fusing is 1 in 170.66 Feel free to ask for a proper explanation or anything else. I also think this means its safe to assume that trying to get a 6 slot from a jewellers follows the same distribution (binomial), albeit with a different value for p (not 25%) |
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271, no 5 Link |
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" How would the 1.0.0 patch notes make sense then? " If your theory was correct, you wouldn't be able to modify those chances without also modifying the chance for a 6l. Additionally, your theory would result in way too low chances for 2l/3l/4l. Last edited by HiddenoO#1951 on Nov 23, 2013, 9:10:45 PM
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" Yeah i tried to work with these numbers to derive the link chance before and after the patch but i kept coming up with silly answers like ~80%. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=x%5E4*%281-x%29%3D7%2F3*y%5E4*%281-y%29%2C+2%28x%5E4%281-x%29%29%2B3%28x%5E3*%281-x%29%5E2%29%3D5%2F4*%282y%5E4%281-y%29%2B3y%5E3*%281-y%29%5E2%29%2C+1%3Ex%3E0%2C+1%3Ey%3E0 X=link chance after the patch, Y=link chance before the patch. Maybe they did their maths wrong. Or maybe the assumption that all link probabilities are independent and equal is wrong. BUT, if i just work with just the numbers in the OP, using the 6 link rate i can derive a link probability of 26%. This matches up almost exactly with the 5-link numbers, which also give a link probability of 26%, is this a coincidence? Maybe. " I suspect the 6l chance got changed a bit aswell but not by enough to bother reporting them. " 2 link chance + 3 link chance + 4 link chance is 75.6% based on my theory Last edited by schiznak#0866 on Nov 23, 2013, 11:02:58 PM
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2 orbs of fusing....2 scraps IGN- Wadski Last edited by yasutora317#6374 on Nov 24, 2013, 3:27:00 AM
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I wasted prob 40 fusing trying to 6-link a rare wep until I saw that quality increases your chances, instead of spending all my stones trying i went the 6-link white chests route since it is cheaper on scraps. I had no idea 6-linking was so rare till i saw this thread but i just started playing at release and have already 6-linked two of them pretty easily with 4 fusing for one and 6 fusing for the other, then alched and a few chaos for ok stats.
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380 used no 5L broken game is broken.
and ofc i used about 850+ for 6socket. just got it 5l, use 5 armor scrap and 1 fuse, after 4 fuse i got it. so its about 394 fuse used IGN: Abnx Last edited by Abn#7643 on Nov 24, 2013, 6:15:12 PM
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180 fusing 150 blackmith no 5 link today i'll try once again, with 150 fusing.:) |
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Aroundish 500 fusing used, 6 times 5Link, no luck yet. Gathering mats to continue this unfair fight. |
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530 fusing 4x 5L I know average is 1000 but it takes my moral to 0 after spending 100+ fusing each try :( |
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