6-socket Orb of Fusing Community Log (done)

Anyone know what the odds of getting a 4-Link on a 5 or 6socket are?

Now that I am back from a day break after my epic failure to try and 6 link a chest, going to post results, really understand in a lot of ways now why people feel so guttered pouring so much to try to ding it but never hit it, it's defiantly demoralising to get nothing back after so much pouring, and it can still get a lot worse, I just decided to give up at 784 attempts after I got the 5L back. Just going to buy a uber chest that is 6L or just craft from a 6L base from now on, lol. Pains me with the amount I spent attempting it that I could of have got a lot of stuff instead, anyways, results for a good cause at least. :P



Total attempts - 784

5L at 23
5L at 55
5L at 139
5L at 144
5L at 419
5L at 539
5L at 784

7 5L
0 6L

So yeah, thought I'd add my own trials to this topic and show you the items I've tried to 6L and have given up on. They are:




I got the socket colors changed from 4 reds and 2 greens to that within 5 Chromatic Orbs, which was insane. However, 500 fusings later and after getting 5 five links and at least getting this configuration back, I said "Fuck it" and stopped. I so badly want a 6L for this bow given how insanely good it is, but I am not wasting any more currency on it and risking not getting the 5L back. Should also note that 7 times (yes I counted) I LOST ALL THE LINKS and was absolutely flabbergasted that such a thing was possible...disgusting really.




And this favored no better, but the socket colors were like this when I bought the chest as well as the links. This time, only 250 fusings before I at least got this configuration back and once again I said "Fuck it" and stopped. I know compared to others that I didn't use that many fusing orbs, but maybe that's a good thing. The sheer waste of currency I used in total could've been used to trade for either better gear, or at least Exalted Orbs for later, and even if I had gotten the 6L's I wouldn't have felt any joy in getting them. In fact, I was pretty much on the 'disappointed' side the whole time. Such a shame really...something that should make you feel happy, but when you realize how much you will spend you realize you could've saved it all up and bought something already 6L'd and potentially with even better stats than you have, or upgrade other gear. :\

147 jewelers
161 fuses

This was to 6s/5L a chest. Did it a few days ago so I'm not 100% sure on the numbers. They are definitely within +/- 5 though. I didn't keep track of the 3-4Ls but I figured some data is > no data.

Probably one of the most worst trys ever on 6 linking an Lioneyes:


roughly 500 jewelers to 6S

Fusings used: 2417
5L seen: 18

What really made me go crazy, its roughly a 1 in 10 chance only 1 link is missing :(

and dont tell me, i know i could have bought a better dps 6L for that fusings :/

16jewellers to 6S
48fusing to 5L

One of my 3 goals in poe has finally be realized (To 6l an item in less than 100 fusings and before any 5L)



fusings: 72
----------------
0L:0
4L:71
5L:0
6L:1

Total: 473

5L: 1
0L: 3

:D

Interesting thread. Let's elaborate a theory.

1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam%27s_razor

2) It seems that link can only occur on 5 out of the 7 possible available, i.e. like the number 2 of an old digital lcd clock.

3) Suppose that each of these ink has 1/X probability to be on or off.

4) Then a 6L has probability 1 / (X^5)

5) We can get a 5L on a 6S either in the upper region or in the lower region. Each of them has probability 1 / (X^4). So we have that total probability is 2 / (X^4) - 1 / (X^5) to get a 5L OR 6L. The minus sign is because we have count the 6L twice ( see http://www.proofwiki.org/wiki/Addition_Law_of_Probability ).

6) On a 5S or 4S the probabilities of a full link are 1 / (X^4) and 1 / (X^3).

---------------------------

Under these assumption, if we set X=4, we get, in a 6S:

1 out 1024 is 6L
1 out 146.3 is 5L or 6L ( 1 out 170.7 is exactly 5L)

"

HellGauss wrote:

Interesting thread. Let's elaborate a theory.

That isn't even remotely close to how it actually works. For starters, you will never see a 6L in any form except a backwards S; two of your alleged seven links are impossible.

Well, I guess since I'm back, I should probably update the OP sometime soon. It's been a long time. Not quite feeling it now, but I'll dust off Ye Olde Spreadsheet in the near future.