6-socket Orb of Fusing Community Log (done)
" Taking this calculation mate, could you work out the probability of someone taking 6k+ fusings for 6L? Just seems like an incredibly small chance. MulletMoustache - GMT timezone Last edited by kudos888#1909 on May 14, 2013, 8:26:15 AM
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2785 Fusings used 5L:37 6l:0 I quit.And no you can't have my stuff im going to give it to my friend. |
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" "for the record, there's good belief/speculation that 5 linked sockets is easier to get with 6 total sockets than 5, since link chance is likely calculated individually, so this might skew stats by including non 6S here. Interesting how both of you spent extremely little to get there though. Fresh cakes for all occasions.
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1 - (767/768)^2785
after using 2785 fusings your chance to 6L an item is 97.3% (marohi guy) 1 - (767/768)^6043 6043 fusings, 99.9619% to link (shavronnes guy) 1 in 2627 chance of failure I really appreciate this thread and all the statistical compilation, but 2 things lead me to suspect these estimates are biased: From another thread: " Hard to say what "it's more than 500-800 on average" means, but I'd be willing to bet the upper error estimate of 963 fusings is a lot closer than the 768 we are using here. Also looking at the sales of 6L items and the current cost of fusing vs exalts and approximate cost to 6s an item (300 ish jewellers, 70 ish fusings/ex), it should cost about 12 ex to 6L an item if we assume the average is around 768 fusings (1 ex to socket, 11 to link). But the premium on a 6L item vs its unsocketed counterpart seems to be much higher than this. Sure, people will and are justified in marking prices up for the "sure thing" of having that 6L item, but the sheer amount of the premiums that people are willing to pay leads me to believe economic forces are hinting that the true chance of 6-linking is much less than 1 in 768. |
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0.5% 5L
0.01% 6L those seems good and should be the numbers to rely on. |
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" interesting analysis. I would like to put forth the argument that a few high profile threads showcasing a laregly unlikely faiure to six link an item due to an massive amoount of fusing orbs used has probably influenced the price points. There is so many factors not related to crafting costs involved in the pricing of items in game, that economic observations may not be the best metric currently. Market is less volatile than a few weeks ago, but high profile devastatingly bad crafting experiences has probably swayed it. Hey...is this thing on?
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" Hmm, I actually saw a thread that said 5L is easier to get in a 5 socket item compared to a 6 socket one. Well I think my luck has been used up, trying to 5L this for a friend, so far, 146 fusings used with no 5L. Last edited by cloudblade70#2117 on May 15, 2013, 3:13:35 PM
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Used 130 fusings on a 6s Searing touch, Long staff.
129 - Four-link or less 0 - Five-links 1 - Six-links ----- 130 - Total Proof:
Spoiler
Also used 17 fusings on 6s Quill rain bow 16 - Four-link or less 1 - Five-links 0 - Six-links ----- 17 - Total Cant link cause its sold, would post more that i didnt link but that was very little amount of fusings(like 1-5) on multiple 6s items. ING: AwerFast
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Used 68 Orbs of Fusing. Was aiming for a 5L but never got one. 4L appeared 6 times only. Last edited by Rothion#2410 on May 15, 2013, 9:03:05 PM
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" Congrats you wasted all your luck on a white hybrid item. Now you're never going to see a 6L again. |
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