Donald Trump and US politics

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deathflower wrote:

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DalaiLama wrote:

The US has significantly reduced their arsenal twice through the START I and START II treaties. START III should have been ushered through for a further reduction, but Obama bungled it.

As required in the agreement, both US and Russia need to disarm. I wouldn't think US would unilaterally disarm, would you?

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deathflower wrote:

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k1rage wrote:

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deathflower wrote:

As required in the agreement, both US and Russia need to disarm. I wouldn't think US would unilaterally disarm, would you?

I dont reckon anyone is going to disarm

even if they say they will

As in reduce their nuclear arsenal. The better question would be why has the reduction of Nuclear Arsenal Slowed. It has to do with the U.S. of trying to “neutralize” Russia’s nuclear arsenal through nonproliferation treaty while building its missile shield. U.S is being a sly fox.

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DalaiLama wrote:

That would be incorrect. It makes for good press, but it's a false narrative. Both Start I and Start II were formulated and passed while the US was actively working on and developing SDI. The US even offered to help Russia with their own defense system.

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deathflower wrote:
most of Russia’s missiles, still largely land-based.

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kolyaboo wrote:

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deathflower wrote:
most of Russia’s missiles, still largely land-based.

You sure about that? I would not bet my ass. They have a lot of nukes on subs. Not sure where you are getting this info. Maybe from a neo con? Pretty outdated.

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ChanBalam wrote:

Another grand jury. tick, tick tick

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

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ChanBalam wrote:

Another grand jury. tick, tick tick

I would expect your type to be less Vladimir and more Estragon by now. Perhaps deep down you are.

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deathflower wrote:

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kolyaboo wrote:

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deathflower wrote:
most of Russia’s missiles, still largely land-based.

You sure about that? I would not bet my ass. They have a lot of nukes on subs. Not sure where you are getting this info. Maybe from a neo con? Pretty outdated.

If you know better, please enlighten me on how many nukes they have deployed Land, air and sea.

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DalaiLama wrote:

Land Based

Russia deploys an estimated 307 ICBMs that can carry approximately 1040 warheads, nearly 40% of the country’s total strategic warheads. The ICBMs are organized under the Strategic Rocket Forces in three missile armies, with a total of 12 divisions with approximately 40 regiments.

Submarine based

The Russian Navy operates a fleet of 12 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) of three classes: Six Delta IVs (Project 667BRDM), three Delta IIIs (Project 667BRD), and three Boreis (Project 955).55. Three Typhoon-class (Project 941) submarines also remain afloat, of which one has been converted to a missile test platform. None carry nuclear weapons.View all notes Each submarine can carry 16 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) for a combined total of nearly 800 warheads.

For the remainder of this decade, the mainstay of Russia’s nuclear submarine force will continue to be the six third-generation Delta IVs built between 1985 and 1992, each equipped with 16 SLBMs. All Delta IVs are part of the Northern Fleet and based at Yagelnaya Bay on the Kola Peninsula. Since 2007, Russia has been upgrading the Delta IVs to carry a modified SS-N-23 SLBM known as the Sineva. Each missile carries up to four warheads. All six boats have now completed an overhaul and conversion to the Sineva. Up to five of the six Delta IVs are operational at any given time.

Air Based

Russia operates two types of nuclear-capable heavy bombers: the Tu-160 Blackjack and the Tu-95MS Bear H. We estimate that there are 70–80 bombers in the inventory, of which about 60 are counted as deployed under New START. Both bomber types can carry the nuclear AS-15 Kent (Kh-55) air-launched cruise missile (ALCM)66. The Tu-95MS is equipped with the AS-15A and the Tu-160 with the AS-15B, which has a longer range. Each bomber can carry 6–16 weapons, depending on type; hence, it would be possible for 70 bombers to be loaded with nearly 800 warheads but only be attributed as 70 warheads under New START.View all notes and possibly gravity bombs,77. One normally well-informed source says there are no nuclear gravity bombs for the Tu-95MS and Tu-160 aircraft (Podvig 2005 Podvig, P. 2005. “Test of a Kh-555 Cruise Missile.” Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces, May 26. http://russianforces.org/blog/2005/05/test_of_a_kh555_cruise_missile.shtml [Google Scholar]).View all notes and the Tu-160 can also carry the nuclear AS-16 Kickback (Kh-15) short-range attack missile.88. There are rumors that the AS-16 may have been retired or placed in storage.View all notes A new long-range nuclear cruise missile, designated the Kh-102, is being fielded and will probably replace the older nuclear missiles.

Estimating the size and operational status of the Russian heavy bomber force is difficult because neither Russia nor Western intelligence provide substantial information. Moreover, as the Tu-160 and Tu-95MS bombers are being modernized, they change operational status. New START counts all bombers with some residual nuclear-capable equipment, not just those currently assigned a nuclear mission. Russia will have to eliminate 77 launchers to meet the New START limit of 800 deployed and nondeployed launchers by 2018, so some of the Tu-95MS bombers will probably be denuclearized or retired.

Our current estimate of roughly 60 deployed nuclear bombers is based largely on commercial satellite images, which show an average of 54–57 bombers typically present at the two strategic bomber bases, Engels and Ukrainka. Another half a dozen or so aircraft from these bases might be on training flights or temporarily at other bases. (On 8 October 2015, for example, two Tu-160s from Engels were present at the Tu-22M3 base at Belaya.) Satellite images show another 23 to 26 bombers typically present at the Ryazan training base, the Kazan production plant, and the Zhukovsky design plant, for a total inventory of 77–83 bombers. These numbers are probably a little high because some of the visible bombers may have been retired, some were Tu-142 naval bombers, and the satellite images were not all taken on the same day. Nevertheless, by averaging the numbers visible in the available images of all six sites, we arrive at a rough estimate of approximately 70 nuclear-capable bombers in service.

It is unknown how many nuclear weapons are assigned to the heavy bombers. Each Tu-160 can carry up to 12 nuclear AS-15A air-launched cruise missiles. The Tu-95MS can carry 6–16 cruise missiles, depending on configuration. Combined, the 60 operational bombers could potentially carry an estimated 670 cruise missiles. The Tu-160 may also have a secondary mission with nuclear gravity bombs, but it seems unlikely that the old and slow Tu-95 would stand much of a chance against modern air defense systems. Most bomber-appropriate nuclear weapons are probably in central storage, with only a couple of hundred deployed at the two bomber bases.9

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Volume 72, 2016 - Issue 3: US-Russia relations: Cold War 2.0