Elder Watcher's Eye drop

Hello,

Yersterday I made 9 runs of Elder and NO WE droped (lvl 85).
Usually, when a did these runs a had an average of 7/10 drop rate; also, I use atlas passive point to increase drop chance with 10%.

Honestly, I don't know what to think?
It's a drop rate nerf in place or I had alot of badluck rng...
Did you experienced something similar?

Thank you,

"

Ghitza wrote:

Did you experienced something similar?

Yeah. Im pretty sure everyone who ever played any game with RNG involved, be it cards, dice, roulette, some video games etc, has experienced both good and bad luck streaks.

OP: If you had an average of 7/10 drop rate in the past, that is astronomically lucky and not the norm.

I dont think the background rate is higher than 1/10, so with the passives maybe 2/10.

Ten kills with none is WAY more normal than 7/10.

Thank you guys for your feedback.
Seems like I was too optimistic, due to alot of goodluck in the past.
I will adjust my future expectations acordingly.

"

trixxar wrote:

I dont think the background rate is higher than 1/10, so with the passives maybe 2/10.

Ten kills with none is WAY more normal than 7/10.

No that's way too low. Watcher's Eye drop rate is 1/4. With Gaze into the Abyss, it moves to ~1/3.

I have always done elder and uber elder for money in the past 4 leagues, there is a drop rate nerf for sure, I used to get a watchers every 2-4 kills and now I am seeing 1 every 10 kills and I have done approximately a hundred kills so far this league.

"

Ghitza wrote:

Hello,

Yersterday I made 9 runs of Elder and NO WE droped (lvl 85).
Usually, when a did these runs a had an average of 7/10 drop rate; also, I use atlas passive point to increase drop chance with 10%.

Honestly, I don't know what to think?
It's a drop rate nerf in place or I had alot of badluck rng...
Did you experienced something similar?

Thank you,

for ilvl 85 two-mod watcher's eye, do you kept Shaper alive ???

I went 25+ without a drop a few leagues back. I dropped 4/5 bottled faiths from cortex maps in another league. After several hundred maps this league (~500-600 by this point), I finally dropped an empower, and I dropped 3 in total within 15 maps. I didn't see an empower or enlighten again until another 600 maps. Empy hit two 1 passive voices in a row from the div card.

RNG is RNG, small sample sizes are not useful.

The drop rate for WE with the passive is 35% (1/4 base chance + 10%). Let's look at the likelihood of dropping WEs at both rates you claim, using Binomial Distribution probability.

7 in 10: 10choose7 * (0.35)^7 * (1-0.35)^(10-7) = 0.0212 = 2.12%

0 in 9: 9choose0 * (0.35)^0 * (1-0.35)^(9-0) = 0.65^9 = 0.0207 = 2.07%

It's basically the same chance for you to get 7 WEs from 10 runs as it is for you to get 0 from 9. RNGesus giveth and RNGesus taketh away.

(extra sanity check: overall you got 7 from 19: 7/19 = 0.368 = 36.8%, so almost on drop rate)