Corona virus

Italy's new cases are declining for the second day in a row. Not stalling but visibly going down. Hopefully this means they've passed the peak. Even if they haven't the more restrictive measures will take care of it.

My younger brother works in the pharmacy at a Walgreens in the Seattle area. I don't envy him even the slightest bit. I feel far more safe and comfortable being over here in Taiwan, right next door to where this whole thing started, than I would if I were in his shoes right now.

Partly because of the current health risks due to his job and location, but mostly because so many of my fellow Americans are fucking maniacs. And heavily armed maniacs at that.

If this shit drags on long enough and people start getting desperate enough, things could get really dark really fast in some areas.

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The_Impeacher wrote:

The essential workers are real life heroes.

The greatest enemy of those heroes and humanity during this time isn't Covid-19. It's the science/reality deniers among us.

you're the one denying the reality.

1000 infected over 34 million people and you're already willing to revoke peoples civil liberties, including the right to life, legally.

if you want to willing give up your rights, by all means. but you justifying the forceful relinquishing of everyone elses....you can go blank your blank with a blank

"

The_Impeacher wrote:

If this holds up and the US starts a hard lockdown a week ago, the concurrent cases would peak at about 300,000 with 27,000 deaths. But the trouble is there will be no lockdown.

(There will be more deaths in the coming weeks regardless due to the ongoing cases.)

I think my math is way off on the low side.

got any evidence to support these projections, or are they just darts in the dark like every single other scientific projection over the past 20 fucking years.

these projections are as based in reality as the climate projections, which have not only not come true in the slightest, but usually have been 180 degrees couldn't be farther from reality.

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aggromagnet wrote:

My younger brother works in the pharmacy at a Walgreens in the Seattle area. I don't envy him even the slightest bit. I feel far more safe and comfortable being over here in Taiwan, right next door to where this whole thing started, than I would if I were in his shoes right now.

Partly because of the current health risks due to his job and location, but mostly because so many of my fellow Americans are fucking maniacs. And heavily armed maniacs at that.

If this shit drags on long enough and people start getting desperate enough, things could get really dark really fast in some areas.

I'm seeing mostly the opposite currently, people "comming together" once they realize the situation they are in.

A lot will be possible in the comming month when creativity and the market does its magic.

I'm sort of laughing with society suddenly becoming aware of normal people just doing their jobs and realizing they keep most of the low-grade structures up and running.
I always tell people they have no clue how amazing it is your dirt gets collected at fixed points in time or a buss arrives on a scedule or that your lights work when you push a switch in your house.

Everybody suddenly seems to collectively experience this "aha" moment.

Already wondering how long that will last though, i imagine hollywood stars are already losing their marbles right about now because of attention deprivation.

Peace,

-Boem-

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xMustard wrote:

"

The_Impeacher wrote:

If this holds up and the US starts a hard lockdown a week ago, the concurrent cases would peak at about 300,000 with 27,000 deaths. But the trouble is there will be no lockdown.

(There will be more deaths in the coming weeks regardless due to the ongoing cases.)

I think my math is way off on the low side.

got any evidence to support these projections, or are they just darts in the dark like every single other scientific projection over the past 20 fucking years.

these projections are as based in reality as the climate projections, which have not only not come true in the slightest, but usually have been 180 degrees couldn't be farther from reality.

Don't compare the modeling of a chaos theory based system with a virus model.

The data points in a weather analysis are extremely complex so criticism and scepticism is to be expected on most data sets(and this is the case even in the scientific field, which is why a lot of people complained about making judgements on the models that calculate the worst possible scenario's)

The data points in a virus model aren't.

And they are based on

1) current live developments in infected regions(being updated constantly)
2) based on previous outbreak models like sars/swine-flu/influenza/HIV etc and controlled for with the new virus parameters.

Comparing these as if one being not reliable or functional yet automatically imply's the later has the same flaws isn't "critical thinking" at all.

A defined problem is a lot easier then a currently non-specified and defined problem(weather).

Peace,

-Boem-