[2.6] The Curse Whisperer - Tri-Curse CI Whispering Ice Elementalist - Viable for Everything

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Black_Gun wrote:

sorry, but you have absolutely no clue how probabilities work. there is no such thing as "an item having bad luck bound to it" which could be "tested" by trying some... essentially, processes like chroming or fusing are internally done by a markov chain, whose determining property is the "memorylessness", i.e. new rolls are independent from previous rolls.



here, take a look at the chrome calc yourself: https://siveran.github.io/calc.html


with vorici 1B, the average chrome cost to hit 3B1R is 203 chromes, the standard deviation is 50.34 attempts or 201 chromes. with vorici 2B, the average cost is 233 chromes, with a standard deviation of 8.81 attempts or 220 chromes. with vorici 3B, the average cost is 273.4 chromes, with a standard deviation of 1.71 chromes or 205 chromes. so the variability in chrome costs is actually not lower with 3B compared to 1B!

the reason for this is simple: when you do vorici 3B, the one reamining socket has 3 options; getting blue on it is quite unlikely. green or red have the same probability. so you are almost guaranteed to get either 3B1R or 3B1G, but in half the cases its 3B1G, i.e. the fourth color will miss. therefore, you have a slightly lower than one in two chance to hit 3B1R when doing vorici 3B. (the average number of required attempts is 2.3, the standard deviation is lower at 1.71 since the distribution is asymmetric...)



tldr: everyone should be doing vorici 1B, no matter what.

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Levirael wrote:

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Black_Gun wrote:

sorry, but you have absolutely no clue how probabilities work. there is no such thing as "an item having bad luck bound to it" which could be "tested" by trying some... essentially, processes like chroming or fusing are internally done by a markov chain, whose determining property is the "memorylessness", i.e. new rolls are independent from previous rolls.



here, take a look at the chrome calc yourself: https://siveran.github.io/calc.html


with vorici 1B, the average chrome cost to hit 3B1R is 203 chromes, the standard deviation is 50.34 attempts or 201 chromes. with vorici 2B, the average cost is 233 chromes, with a standard deviation of 8.81 attempts or 220 chromes. with vorici 3B, the average cost is 273.4 chromes, with a standard deviation of 1.71 chromes or 205 chromes. so the variability in chrome costs is actually not lower with 3B compared to 1B!

the reason for this is simple: when you do vorici 3B, the one reamining socket has 3 options; getting blue on it is quite unlikely. green or red have the same probability. so you are almost guaranteed to get either 3B1R or 3B1G, but in half the cases its 3B1G, i.e. the fourth color will miss. therefore, you have a slightly lower than one in two chance to hit 3B1R when doing vorici 3B. (the average number of required attempts is 2.3, the standard deviation is lower at 1.71 since the distribution is asymmetric...)



tldr: everyone should be doing vorici 1B, no matter what.

I haven't mentioned "items with bad luck". I mentioned your luck. Until you waste a few hundred chromatics on vorici 1B you will never know if you will get it. You might as well do maths, take averages, get the number of chromatics needed and whatever, if you have bad luck you will never get 3B1R. What the calculator tells you is irrelevant: it does the math on how likely you are going to get the colors you need. As I already told before, the calc said I needed 70 chromatics and I used 200+. There is no better option because you can't know whether you will get what you want. The average fusings, for example, to 6L an item is around 1000-1500. There are, however, no lack of stories about using a few thousand more. The average, in this case, tells you nothing.

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ruikarikun1 wrote:

Awesome build. How do you manage fps?