The REAL Beta Numbers Thread

These numbers are really discouraging, If my math is somewhat correct and I'm estimating here, the chance you'll gain an invite is about 1 in 125000?

Which translates to about 0.0008% chance of an invite, or 0.008% chance while being marked active?

Assuming Current Rate...

6 years to invite everyone to the beta? (Not including future accounts, or the fact the beta will be over long before that.)

Interesting stuff.

That's correct; since they're only inviting one person at a time, your chance is 1/126,000 each time a name is selected, approximately (~134,000 accounts minus ~8,000 possible beta accounts).

Any way you look at it, the chance is very low, but you have to consider is the large selection pool.

GGG simply wouldn't be able to handle the flood of feedback that would come from more testers, even if they had invited only 25-50% more rapidly throughout the process. I believe they're being swamped already, though they're doing a great job of replying to threads in the beta section. We're really putting them to work in there.


You still have a better chance than winning a state lottery ;)

Thanks for the information man, you did an awesome job working this all out. It would be nice if an GGG could confirm your work. Those who are playing and those are still waiting still like knowing this random information. Gamer's think alike and knowing numbers is always good to know. :]

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RR_Killer wrote:

These numbers are really discouraging, If my math is somewhat correct and I'm estimating here, the chance you'll gain an invite is about 1 in 125000?

Which translates to about 0.0008% chance of an invite, or 0.008% chance while being marked active?

Assuming Current Rate...

6 years to invite everyone to the beta? (Not including future accounts, or the fact the beta will be over long before that.)

Interesting stuff.

rofl thanks for the bad news.. might aswell start looking for other games cause if thats really the case then good luck, bigger chance win the lottery then a beta key haha.

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mortuus wrote:

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RR_Killer wrote:

These numbers are really discouraging, If my math is somewhat correct and I'm estimating here, the chance you'll gain an invite is about 1 in 125000?

Which translates to about 0.0008% chance of an invite, or 0.008% chance while being marked active?

Assuming Current Rate...

6 years to invite everyone to the beta? (Not including future accounts, or the fact the beta will be over long before that.)

Interesting stuff.

rofl thanks for the bad news.. might aswell start looking for other games cause if thats really the case then good luck, bigger chance win the lottery then a beta key haha.

why so glum its only access to the beta, its not like GGG are gonna turn around and say, "ok we've finished the game now, but only those in the beta can play, everyone else piss off" all ya have to do is wait maybe 3-4 months and open beta will rock round

Thx, good to know and nice job!

Very nice work you've done.

Even thought theres such a small chance to get into the beta

Overall a nice piece of work. :)
But the timer did invite people every 35 minutes and not every 30 for a couple of weeks. So it should be a few less keys that were given out. ;)

Edit: Ah, I just read about your guess that it has been between 35 and 26 minutes since September 8th. But most of the time it was at 35 minutes as far as I remember. :)

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Senf wrote:

But most of the time it was at 35 minutes as far as I remember. :)

If I could find any info on when it changed, I would adjust the numbers.

If we assume it changed to 35min on the 8th and stayed that way until yesterday:
Sep 8 - Sep 26
18 days = 432 hours = 25,920 minutes
25,920min / 35min interval = ~741 intervals
1 invite/interval * 741 intervals = 741 invites

That's only around 120 less invites over the 2.5-week period, or 6-7 less invites per day. I don't know for certain when the timer was changed, but there were most likely more invites given out during that period.

very interesting info, thanks for taking the time!