On Long Term Leagues, Trade, Loot Devaluation and PvP: Ethereal Orb Item Sink

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Veta321 wrote:

Not being able to find good loot or hating the trade system is a recurrent complaint. I decided to take a look at the underlying problems from an economic perspective. I wanted to understand why players felt they didn't find good loot and why reservation exists in implementing an efficient trade system. It turns out players actually aren't finding good loot and we might not want an efficient trade system just yet. Let me explain.

The Problem

One major design obstacle facing an ARPG is diminishing returns on loot. As characters acquire better gear their prospective upgrades become more scarce. As upgrades become more scarce it becomes less viable to find useful gear farming. Trade plays an interesting role here. On one hand trade provides value to items that would otherwise not have any. On the other hand it catalyzes gear progression and therefore diminishes the collective return on finding loot.

Return on loot, or value from farming and crafting, is a function of supply and demand and as players move forward in gear progression the items they collectively demand become more scarce. Therefore the scarcest, most demanded, items appreciate in value relative everything else, only depreciating after market saturation which can take years or considerably less if dupes are involved (Diablo 2).

This isn't a new insight, it happens in every loot-centric game, eventually, but it's even worse with convenient trade systems that propel players forward in gear progression (Diablo 3), hence GGG's reservation with improving trade. The inflating value of scarce demanded items combined with the market saturation of all other items results in a constantly diminishing return on loot. Merely increasing drop rates would push collective gear progression forward and the market would find a similar equilibrium with more powerful items. No wonder we reset the ladder every 4 months.

The Solution and Why Hardcore isn't Enough

So I thought about how to counter diminishing returns on loot in long term leagues. The solution is rather obvious but implementation is tricky. You must introduce a consistent item sink for demanded items. Again, the concept is simple but poses problems.

Hardcore is an example of an inconsistent item sink. In hardcore characters who die are transferred to softcore in effect removing their gear from the economy and encouraging players to start new characters, increasing the demand of items. Items leave the economy and demand increases. The problem with hardcore however is that it hinges on consistent death. Deaths are not consistent and depend on carelessness, which on an individual basis *should* diminish. Deaths also become less frequent as gear improves relative to content. What this means is that hardcore is not a reliable way to stabilize loot devaluation over the long term. Hardcore is only an inhibitor of loot devaluation.

Hardcore is also not a workable solution for casual players. By its nature it is challenging and subverts a sense of progress through time invested. Not to mention dying as a result of something out of your control can be mind racking. Punishment like that should be a choice, not a requirement. The ideal solution, if there was one, would work in softcore and it would be consistent.

What we need is a consistent demand for items that also adapts to changes in collective gear progression, and then we need a sink for those items. Naturally, the most demanded items are the most powerful but we don't want to indiscriminately destroy the most powerful items of a player. Doing so would undermine a player's sense of progression and accomplishment which is after all the point of an ARPG.

We also don't want to make the most powerful items common, as that would undermine the accomplishment of long term progression and trade in general. New ladders, actually, can be thought of as a periodic item sink for all items. Some players are not keen on the idea of losing all progress, however, and that is why we have separate tributary permanent leagues. Ladders don't actually solve the problem they merely reset it.

A Modest Proposal

So what can we do? I've thought about the problem and I may have a solution: ethereal items. For those unfamiliar with Diablo 2, ethereal items were similar to normal items but their base properties were increased by 50%. The downside to ethereals was that they irreversibly wore down over time until they broke. They were quite popular among the PvP crowd. My suggestion then is to introduce a new orb, the Ethereal Orb.

Ethereal Orbs would increase the value of all item properties, instead of base properties, by a reasonably significant amount, say 25%. That change is important because ethereals must be attractive to all kinds of characters, not merely ES and physical damage users. Etherealized items, then, would irreversible wear down. The exact mechanics of wear could be a function of damage dealt, experience gained or actions taken. I am open to suggestion here.

The idea is to introduce demand for items which also leave the economy consistently. The typical item candidate for etherealization would be powerful but weaker than your permanent gear. In that way, ethereals would function to correct market saturation from the top down. Let me demonstrate what I mean.

Say we have (3) tiers of gear in descending order of power and scarcity. T1 is the most scarce and most powerful and therefore not a good ethereal candidate. T2 is less powerful and less scarce but everyone already has T2 and wants T1. T2 is our ethereal candidate. If T2 items are etherealized and consumed at a rate faster than they enter the economy then the market will desaturate. Once desaturated T2 items will again have value and the most affordable ethereal candidate will become T3. Once T3 is desaturated all of our tiers of items will again have value.

With the markets desaturated, an ordinary player may not be interested in squandering wealth on a temporary upgrade, but a competitive PvP player would be. So, my expectation is that ordinary players will find and trade good items to wealthy PvP players who can then ethereal them. PvP would be an item sink, much as maps are a currency sink. The strength of the sink would depend on the power of ethereals, their scarcity and duration.

Miscellaneous Thoughts

There are a few considerations before this can work. PvP would need to be competitive and allow for rated match making. Without competition players will not be interested in sinking wealth and without rated match making players without ethereals may feel excluded from PvP. In this way ethereals would be most attractive to the fiercest competitors and have the greatest impact at the top of the leaderboards. Ethereals being powerful but not OP is key. We want them desirable but not alienating players without them.

There would be some inadvertent benefits to what I suggest as well. GGG would be free to design a more convenient trade system. That is because a more convenient trade system would no longer risk catalyzing loot devaluation. Instead the market would self regulate according to the consumption of PvP and the incoming supply from PvE. Powerful ethereals could also mitigate the impact of legacy items in PvP.

Finally, a consistent item sink for good items counters the market forces which cause great items to inflate in value relative to everything else. That is because desaturating the market for good items keeps their value stable and prevents players from skipping ahead in gear progression - thus diminishing the immediate demand for great items. As a result item valuation would be more closely tied to drop rates rather than the exponential jump we see from good to great gear. A good item 10x more common than a great item would be worth about 1/10th as much, instead of 1/100th as much.

Thank you to ScrotieMcB who let me bounce the idea off him.

TL;DR

As an ARPG ages the collective return on loot diminishes. Trade initially increases the value of loot but ultimately catalyzes its devaluation. POE, compared to Diablo 3, has an inefficient trade system which results in a slower devaluation of loot but does not provide a long term solution to "bad loot".

To abate market saturation and loot depreciaton I recommend a new orb, the Ethereal Orb. The Ethereal Orb would significantly increase the power of an item, making common items more desirable, but cause them to irreversible wear down. Ethereals would be particularly attractive to competitive PvP players. Read above to understand why.

The purpose of etherals is twofold. First, it acts as an item sink for good but expendable items, in effect clearing market saturation from the top down. Second, ethereals act as a consistent item sink on incoming loot, thus maintaining the value of loot. I expect etherals to keep loot worthwhile in long term leagues and smooth out prices from good to great items. I encourage you to read above for a deeper explanation.

I know it's long but if you've read the TL;DR and disagree I encourage you to read the appropriate section above as I go in much more depth. If you did read the whole thing, I'm much obliged.

This is pretty brilliant.

I will say I think it would be better to simply make all items have a durability that eventually degrades the item into uselessness. If you want to be serious about this issue, the ethereal orb probably wouldn't be used by anyone because there simply wouldn't be any reason to make their leet gear a temporary piece, and if it's second only to your main gear set, you'd probably try to sell it off.
I think in order for this to work you simply have to let gear degrade over time, and as a result you'd probably have to adjust the game to reflect the change in actual difficulty.

I really think this idea WILL work, but it hinges on gear being slightly less important than build. Right now, gear is hugely important, too important for this idea to really shine for what it can do to the game and genre.

Of course, it's possible that this idea will sustain itself and everything I said is wrong, but I think it would just become a rarely used gem. The idea will definitely work though.

It wouldn't work unless you have to convert preexisting currency + good items into ethereal orbs to use on your items.

All your doing is just adding in a new orb that item sinks itself on items, that doesn't actually fix loot devaluation or inflation because it only affects itself.

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RagnarokChu wrote:

It wouldn't work unless you have to convert preexisting currency + good items into ethereal orbs to use on your items.

All your doing is just adding in a new orb that item sinks itself on items, that doesn't actually fix loot devaluation or inflation because it only affects itself.

Hello Ragnarok, I'm not making an injunction but if you didn't read the entire OP I would encourage you to do so. If you did read the OP, I recall mentioning a wear mechanic on etherealized items that would function to sink (that is remove from the economy) items which have been improved by an ethereal orb. These items would behave in a fashion similar to the ethereal items of Diablo 2. Ultimately, this wear mechanic which destroys ethereal items would serve to desaturate the market, not unlike the way you propose. You can read about that specifically in the "Modest Proposal" section of the OP.

If anything in the OP seemed unclear, you are welcome to mention it and I will do my best to clarify. One way to think about this is that you are sacrificing a good item and a relatively scarce orb for a temporary gear buff. The strength of this "buff" is dependent on the quality of the item sacrificed.

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Veta321 wrote:

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RagnarokChu wrote:

It wouldn't work unless you have to convert preexisting currency + good items into ethereal orbs to use on your items.

All your doing is just adding in a new orb that item sinks itself on items, that doesn't actually fix loot devaluation or inflation because it only affects itself.

Hello Ragnarok, I'm not making an injunction but if you didn't read the entire OP I would encourage you to do so. If you did read the OP, I recall mentioning a wear mechanic on etherealized items that would function to sink (that is remove from the economy) items which have been improved by an ethereal orb. These items would behave in a fashion similar to the ethereal items of Diablo 2. Ultimately, this wear mechanic which destroys ethereal items would serve to desaturate the market, not unlike the way you propose. You can read about that specifically in the "Modest Proposal" section of the OP.

If anything in the OP seemed unclear, you are welcome to mention it and I will do my best to clarify. One way to think about this is that you are sacrificing a good item and a relatively scarce orb for a temporary gear buff. The strength of this "buff" is dependent on the quality of the item sacrificed.

The critique was that nobody would choose to upgrade their items with the ethereal items unless they can afford to begin with, making the sink only at the upper levels were people are just using disposable gear. Even then it'll just be easier to pay the little extra to just have your items have better stats until the upper highest level of gear, which then why would I use an orb to have my item be mirror worthy if it only lasts a week and is worth 20 exalts?

My change would mean that you have to turn other good items + currency into orbs to CONSTANTLY upkeep your item (otherwise it becomes "broken" and not usable until you add more "use" to it), making it a constant sink that everyone can use at all levels of gameplay.

Your original idea assumes too many things:
1. That people in your current original version of your idea will willingly use a new dropped currency that they have to find or trade for to upgrade their items for them to lose down later anyway.
2. That the majority of people would choose to constantly use this to make it a sink, and then how much does it really sink when all your doing is adding in an optional orb that is dropped to the pool that is a voluntary use for a big downside that most people can't afford to take.
3. How many items will this sink items in the long run? Wouldn't most players almost never use this in a sense other then items that they don't care about sinking anyway, making it as worth and used as a divine orb on rare specific situations.

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RagnarokChu wrote:

The critique was that nobody would choose to upgrade their items with the ethereal items orbs ... if it only lasts a week

Sure, this is a good point and also addressed in the OP in the latter half of the "Modest Proposal" section and the very start of the "Miscellaneous Thoughts" section. It also came up a few times in the rest of the thread. Here's what I wrote in response to Avenroth:
http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/548056#p4946102

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Veta wrote:

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Now, why would anyone ethereal an item? If it's reasonably affordable and, once ethereal, more powerful than your current gear you could use it as a temporary boon. But if you're interested in amassing wealth then it's not necessarily a good idea because it sinks both the item and the orb. Who would be interested then? Players who have accumulated wealth and care about competing in PvP. Therefore, it is important that ethereals be economically unsustainable in PvE but powerful enough to make a difference in PvP.

At first glance it looks like the ethereal orb is another addition that will only affect gameplay at the highest echelons. But in fact, it is the opposite. The purpose of the ethereal orb is to make the rest of the game more rewarding and satisfying, by virtue of stabilizing the supply and value of loot.

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RagnarokChu wrote:

My change would mean that you have to turn other good items + currency into orbs to CONSTANTLY upkeep your item (otherwise it becomes "broken" and not usable until you add more "use" to it), making it a constant sink that everyone can use at all levels of gameplay.

Legatus1982 brings up a similar point in the post preceding yours. There are two thoughts here, which I'd like to address carefully. They were brought up in the OP and previously in the thread, but I will try to expound on them further.

First, the idea that unavoidable item maintenance is more economically sustainable is correct, assuming it sinks items not currency. A general wear mechanic that eventually permanently breaks items would achieve the goals we set out in the OP. The problem with a general wear mechanic, of course, lies in that it undermines if not totally destroys the feeling of gear progression in an ARPG, substituting it instead with wealth progression. Now, if we do as you suggest and require items for restoring and maintaining our gear we encounter another problem.

The second problem is of valuation. If we require items for maintaining gear or producing wealth, in the case of orb recipes, we encounter items which have similar scarcity but totally different valuation. There are many reasons why items with similar scarcity can have different value. One would be a popular build driving up the price of its constituent gear. Another might be novelty, for example new patch uniques or base items. The fundamental problem, then, is of using the least valuable items to maintain gear or produce wealth, rather than the most valuable items or any items but with a reward which is commensurate to the value of the item (but as we know that is always in flux). This solution works from the bottom up, rather than the top down which means we would only inhibit saturation rather than regulate it. It also produces obstacles and jumps in gear progression rather than facilitating a steady pace.

Humans are very intelligent and will maximize the value of their wealth which makes it difficult to stabilize an economy. If the greatest economic minds struggle with wealth condensation, surely GGG will as well. Luckily, we aren't under the same constraints as the global markets and we can cheat with mechanics like Hardcore, ladders and item wear. The merit of ethereal orbs and items, then, is in tempering a general wear mechanic. Etherealization is an indirect item sink and sidesteps the prickly problem of valuation.

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RagnarokChu wrote:

Your original idea assumes too many things:
1. That people in your current original version of your idea will willingly use a new dropped currency that they have to find or trade for to upgrade their items for them to lose down later anyway.
2. That the majority of people would choose to constantly use this to make it a sink, and then how much does it really sink when all your doing is adding in an optional orb that is dropped to the pool that is a voluntary use for a big downside that most people can't afford to take.
3. How many items will this sink items in the long run? Wouldn't most players almost never use this in a sense other then items that they don't care about sinking anyway, making it as worth and used as a divine orb on rare specific situations.

I imagine I've addressed points 1 and 2 by now. How many items are sunk depends on the duration, supply and demand for ethereal items. The demand for ethereal items depends on their relative power, their value in PvP and the level of competition in PvP. As noted in the OP, a fiercely competitive PvP scene will be integral to making this work. There needs to be ratings, rankings and ladders that encourage sacrificing wealth in the short term for performance over the long term. Admittedly, the PvP scene right now is not so great. There are ways to encourage competition in PvP but that is somewhat of a different topic. I will concede there is an assumption here. I am assuming PvP can be made into a fun and competitive branch of POE.

As for the actual volume of items which are removed from the economy, that is a function of ethereal duration and ethereal orb supply. Getting the supply and duration mechanics of ethereals perfect, however, should not be a major concern. That is because the mechanic is self regulating and addresses saturation from the top down, rather than from the bottom up. See the second to last paragraph of the "Modest Proposal" section in the OP for a demonstration of what I mean. In practice we should see an immediate stabilization in the value of T2 gear and, depending on the relative supply and duration of ethereals, that will translate to T3 and lower gear too.

I was going to reply point by point but here's an easier version of what I was going to say.

One of the biggest design flaws a developer can make is they assume people would use what they have in mind for their intended purposes and that it's even used in they want in the first place.

From a top down point of view, my gear is so good that I wouldn't need the ethereal orb in the current version. With the only saving grace is "competitive" pvp in which were it literally doesn't matter because it affects a small portion of the pve people who are actually partaking consistently in the market of selling and farming items. Even then if I have BIS mirror rares then I would win PVP matches any time negating the point of the ethereal orb only to be beaten by someone who decides to use an ethereal orb on a mirror item, which then again doesn't affect jack shit in the whole economy in general.

Literally the only consist use of your ethereal orb is for one week races/races in general because I can instantly jack up my gear to overcome parts of the game and the short duration of owning my item doesn't matter and that I would replace anyway for end game gear, literally just adding another RNG aspect in racing.

Or let me put it in another way, I myself would never use the orb and it will never sink any of my items. There is no economical/advantages point in using it on anything else but throwaway gear for a leveling character in new ladders/races because.

My suggestion would mean if you ethereal your items, you will in fact constantly sink currency/items from the market to upkeep your upgraded items. The item literally disappearing after x use removes all market value because I lose the thermal orb and the item itself for a voluntary option in upgrading my gear were it'll literally be easier to just sell the item and buy a upgraded version down the line.

I would prefer you did respond point by point, or at least addressed my direct responses to thoughts you've now expressed in 3 posts. Maybe that's my fault and I'm not being concise enough. I have conceded fun and competitive PvP is a necessity to making something like this functional. Again, this is an astute observation on your part and a potential hang up I mention in the OP. If you do not think that a fun and competitive PvP is possible, then this is a fundamental disagreement and we can leave it at that.

If on the other hand you don't think my line of thinking is sound, I'd like to hear exactly why. Sure, on an individual basis, there will be wealthy players that don't participate in a fun and competitive PvP scene, as you claim to be. This is of no major concern when looking at the aggregate however. In the aggregate what matters is whether players are collectively using ethereals in PvP and whether PvP is engaging enough to foster short term sacrifice for long term performance. I might add, the "short term sacrifice" at least initially shouldn't be much beyond the cost of an ethereal orb. That is because the market right now is saturated with cheap ethereals candidates that even at the modest 25% buff suggested in the OP would outclass the best 'mirror-worthy' items. Eventually that may no longer be the case, depending on the incoming and outgoing supply of that caliber of item.

My presumptions here are based on Diablo 2 which did demonstrate at least some interest in sacrificing wealth for performance. Further, based on the competitive scene in racing, I anticipate it won't take a significant incentive to encourage similar participation in PvP. The key factor will be making PvP fun at competitive levels, while also not alienating players without ethereal gear, hence rated match making and custom PvP lobbies.

I think you bring up an excellent point with regards to the use of ethereal orbs in races. I would like to curtail that if at all possible, either by keeping them exclusive to maps or higher difficulty, like GCP. The intention of ethereal items is PvP, but it's important to take into consideration use in both PvE and racing. Ethereal gear sets in PvE should not be sustainable or profitable, which I think we both agree would be the case.

In races, which are PvE, there is however a shorter timeframe and reward based on performance thereof which affects the importance and significance of a temporary gear buff like etherealization. After all, RNG can already make or break a race performance. One way to address this is by making ethereals even less sustainable in PvE, such that they aren't a no brainer even in a 1 week race. That could be accomplished through defining the factors of item wear e.g. actions taken, distance travelled, damage dealt, damage taken. Factors that cause more wear in typical PvE play than typical PvP play would be most suitable.

Naturally, I am partial to a laissez faire approach. Ethereals are meant to correct the end game economy, therefore I'd rather they were relegated to the end game, but common enough to affect the overall economy. If necessary there are steps that could be taken in resolving any problem encountered in races. Those include reducing or diminishing ethereal supply in races, keeping ethereals exclusive to PvP and keeping their drop exclusive to the late end game. I don't think any of that will be necessary however.

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My suggestion would mean if you ethereal your items, you will in fact constantly sink currency/items from the market to upkeep your upgraded items. The item literally disappearing after x use removes all market value because I lose the thermal orb and the item itself for a voluntary option in upgrading my gear were it'll literally be easier to just sell the item and buy a upgraded version down the line.

Lastly, to this point I think I've addressed the common objections preventing GGG and other ARPG devs from applying a system similar to what you suggest. Namely the problem of undermining gear progression and properly appraising disparate types of items, which is pretty much impossible given the shifting meta landscape in POE.

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RagnarokChu wrote:

I was going to reply point by point but here's an easier version of what I was going to say.

One of the biggest design flaws a developer can make is they assume people would use what they have in mind for their intended purposes and that it's even used in they want in the first place.

From a top down point of view, my gear is so good that I wouldn't need the ethereal orb in the current version. With the only saving grace is "competitive" pvp in which were it literally doesn't matter because it affects a small portion of the pve people who are actually partaking consistently in the market of selling and farming items. Even then if I have BIS mirror rares then I would win PVP matches any time negating the point of the ethereal orb only to be beaten by someone who decides to use an ethereal orb on a mirror item, which then again doesn't affect jack shit in the whole economy in general.

Literally the only consist use of your ethereal orb is for one week races/races in general because I can instantly jack up my gear to overcome parts of the game and the short duration of owning my item doesn't matter and that I would replace anyway for end game gear, literally just adding another RNG aspect in racing.

Or let me put it in another way, I myself would never use the orb and it will never sink any of my items. There is no economical/advantages point in using it on anything else but throwaway gear for a leveling character in new ladders/races because.

Agreed with this. The analysis of the problem is spot-on, and the item-sink solution is really good, but the implementation of what the OP suggests to accomplish it has a few problems. On the other hand, I'm not sure the next idea presented here:

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My suggestion would mean if you ethereal your items, you will in fact constantly sink currency/items from the market to upkeep your upgraded items. The item literally disappearing after x use removes all market value because I lose the thermal orb and the item itself for a voluntary option in upgrading my gear were it'll literally be easier to just sell the item and buy a upgraded version down the line.

will really fix anything, because it would be REALLY hard to implement. How would you determine how "good" an item is when you consider its use for the repair orb? There are plenty of junk rares and great blues out there, so it's not like saying "use a rare + the orb to fix your item" would accomplish much, as there's no shortage of really shit rares.

I really do think the best solution is to just make items degrade slowly over time. If you're worried about it making players feel like they aren't progressing gear-wise, the solution to THAT is much simpler: make gear less important than build and level, and increase the durability of the items such that they can last weeks if need be. At the end of the month though, if you haven't found a replacement for your gear you'll be out of luck until you get one. The key would be in how long gear can last before it breaks, and that's how you'd manage the gear progression and item sink portion of the game.

So I really like Vaal Orbs. And I've found myself thinking about them from a macroeconomic perspective. Here's what we need to consider when trying to understand the effect of Vaal Orbs on the overall economy:
-Vaal Orbs are high reward, the better the base item the better the potential gain.
-Vaal Orbs are high risk, the more valuable the base item the worse the potential loss.

So, a reasonable person will try to gain as much potential value from as little possible risk. All this points to Vaal Orbs increasing the demand of T2 items. That is, items which are powerful but have saturated the market and are therefore affordable. So, in practice this will drive up the value of T2 items. And, since one of the potential outcomes of Vaal usage is property rerolling, this will actually serve to sink some T2 items, by turning them into T3 or worse. This doesn't tell us if Vaal Orbs will desaturate the market of T2 items, however. In part that will depend on the relative drop rates and competing orb uses, like map and gem corruption.

So far so good, right? Here's what Vaal Orbs are not:
-A consistent item sink.

As we learned in the OP, a consistent item sink is necessary for counteracting item saturation over the long term. Item generation must be offset by item consumption. If it's possible for the sink to be satiated, or at least mitigated to the degree that item consumption does not offset item generation, then all we have is an inflation inhibitor. Although Vaal Orbs are looking to be a very strong inhibitor, so that bodes well for the 4-month league economies, which in the past seemed to sputter along after a while.

Unfortunately, it does not bode well for the permanent economies. Sure, it may be a very long time before everyone has BIS+corrupted items, and until then many good items will continue to be sunk, but that's not the point of a long term item sink. The point is to sink enough items such that farming and crafting are rewarding consistently and over the long term. To put it another way, the goal is to fix "bad drops" and "being forced to trade". To that end, I'm not sure we have found a panacea, at least in standard. This will certainly benefit the non-permanent leagues, however.

So, Vaal Orbs are a very smart addition to the game, more than one would think initially. Vaal Orbs actually work a lot like hardcore, but without a lot of the drawbacks of hardcore. They're a sink for desirable items, but they don't necessarily ruin your overall progress. The jury's out on how effective they'll be, but I applaud GGG's effort here.

Thanks for reading.

Depending upon how prohibitive their use is, I predict Vaal Orbs will suffer a massive tank in demand for equipment crafting after the "new, shiny" effect wears off. Remember, people have to be willing to use them, for them to be effective. There will be some, at the "top" of the "food chain" who will tempt their use in pursuit of new best items, but I don't believe this will sustain their demand, as much as level 77-78 maps will. Their potential benefit:risk for 77-78 maps would appear to exceed that of equipment crafting, meanwhile their apparent exclusivity from mappers will ensure their demand from those mappers.

Edit: Massive post edit left that poorly explained, I think. I'll post a better explanation, if requested, but basically: I predict their primary function will be for mappers, seeking level 78/79 maps (by corrupting their 77/78 maps); therefore, use with maps will be their primary market, where the majority of the liquid supply will move to, and thus lessening any impact the orbs might have as a potential item sink. They will, for sure, sink items, but I do not believe on a grand-enough scale as would ultimately be required to affect the economy in a consequential manner, when compared to their potential for additional item generation via maps. I'd even go so far as to suggest they may lead to greater item saturation, though of course that all depends on just how effective they are at modifying maps, compared to their desirability in corrupting items.