What Exactly Killed Diablo 3's Economy (and Implications on PoE)
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I've seen a few auction house threads recently, and I'm bored, so I thought I'd tackle this topic, because there seems to be a lot of confusion. Not that I blame anyone; it's a complicated topic I've thought on plenty. I loved that game at one point, so how I fell out of love with it is an important subject to me, and one where my views have changed slightly over time as I dwelled more on it.
But I digress. What killed Diablo 3 could best be referred to as Cloud Item Valuation. Let me explain.
1. The Joy of Loot-Finding
Go back to the first time you ever found a unique item in an ARPG. Presumably, you didn't have a lot of market experience yet, as you were kind of learning the ropes, and all of a sudden you see those orange-brown letters. You get excited. Have you won the lottery, and are about to either trade this away, or wear ubergear for a few levels? You don't know, but the anticipation is awesome.
Then you identify it. It has this mod and this mod. How much is it worth? You still don't know, but you're a little closer to solving the puzzle. You are still hopeful, but depending on what you saw a little bit more realistically so... either your hopes were confirmed or slightly minimalized. That feeling right there is the heart and soul of ARPG loot-finding. The feelings of hope and anticipation have a powerful psychological effect on the players, all the way down to the release of neurotransmitters, chemicals which effect how you think and feel. It's moments like that where you have a "this is it, this is the game I've been waiting for" moment. Now fast forward hundreds of play-hours. A unique Gold Ring drops, and you immediately know it's Andvarius, because you've memorized by now that there's only one unique Gold Ring; that's a pretty good unique, so you're mildly excited, but you already have two of them so it's not that big of a deal. You identify it and immediately know it's worth between 1 and 1.5 Exalts. Where are the feels there? The anticipation and hope are gone, or at least diminished. It's not the same game anymore, and farming starts to feel like... work. What makes the difference there? It's simple: valuation knowledge. In the first case, you don't really know what things are worth; in the second case, you're a trading veteran and can evaluate items with ease. Thus, a good ARPG makes item valuation exceedingly difficult. Not "trading difficult," not "farming difficult," but the act of knowing what something is worth. When it comes to appraising your gear, ignorance truly is bliss.
2. Things that didn't kill Diablo 3
The real-money auction house didn't kill Diablo 3. It did legitimize wholesale botting and other forms of cheating in the game, and helped to drive inflation, especially gold inflation. However, Diablo 2 also had wholesale botting and other forms of cheating, and people still love that game. Not saying the RMAH was a good thing, but it's not what killed the magic.
Instant buyouts didn't kill Diablo 3, at least not by themselves. They're part of the problem, no doubt, and I'm going to include them later. But we shouldn't pretend that they were the sole culprit here. If people were fast-buying your items for truly random amounts of gold, the system would be a lot more entertaining than it was. The thing is, people weren't doing this; the economy was very predictable. Why so predictable? We have to look further. Instant respecs didn't kill Diablo 3 either. Don't get me wrong, it limited your personalized investment in your character to what gear they were wearing, rather than the combination of that and distinct combination of carefully selected passive skills which you had to commit to. But that really doesn't have anything to do with your enjoyment in farming; it has to do with your enjoyment in rerolling. Rerolling in D3 was stupid, but so was farming, and we need to determine the reason for that, too.
3. Cloud Valuation
What did kill Diablo 3 was simple: it was far too easy to determine the trade value of your drops, your stash, everything. This, in turn, utterly ruined the magic of farming. Let's look at the various factors which contributed to this, because it wasn't any one thing by itself.
1. Simplistic itemization. Diablo 3 seemed to do everything it could to make it child's play to determine if one piece of gear was better than another in the same slot. For the most part, gear that was perfect for every Demon Hunter ever was also pretty darn perfect for every Monk ever, destroying class identity in gear; in the few cases when gear was specifically for one class, it was because it was hard-limited to that class, as in "Can only be used by Witch Doctors." Zero effort was put to give different builds within the same class differing itemization. 2. Searchable pricing. The most devastating feature on the Diablo 3 auction house was not buyouts per se, but the ability to instantly price-check anything. With one quick in-game search, you could easily determine the approximate value of most any piece of gear; if it was still for sale, one would assume the price is too high under an instant-buyout system, so simply find the lowest price currently for sale, and go slightly below it. Congratulations, price determined, no long-term game experience necessary. (Note that this is dependent upon the first point, simplistic itemization; by keeping itemization simple, you could easily find a nearly-equivalent piece of gear.) 3. Lack of encounter variance. In a game that doesn't have instantaneous buyouts, sometimes you get very lucky with trades. Perhaps you run into someone with zero patience and a burning desire for an item, and he's willing to pay through the nose to get it as fast as possible. Perhaps you don't, and you're the one who gets impatient and sells it far below market. This variance in what you get for an item keeps trading interesting, which in turn keeps farming interesting, because you never know what the gear you find will trade for. The instantaneous buyout system put the nail in this coffin, ensuring that every item was sold using essentially the same ultra-competitive, just-under-market-value method with little to no variance. This meant whenever an item dropped, it wasn't an opportunity to hopefully fleece some sucker; the trade would be fair, predictable, and boring as all hell. (Note that this is dependent upon the previous point, searchable pricing; without the ability to search out the lowest buyout, this wouldn't be an issue.) All of these combined to rapidly accelerate the process by which players began to know market values. And the faster they learned, the faster loot-finding itself became a complete bore.
4. What PoE can do different
This list is pretty much the opposite of the list in the previous section.
1. Diverse and balanced itemization. This is by far more important; the valuation of items is far more dependent on the affix system and on unique item design than it ever will be on the actual methods by which trading occurs. Keeping a plethora of builds in the game, all balanced against each other, with a lot of different item affixes competing for attention for each build, is key to making item valuation a complex activity that takes months or better yet years to master. Especially important is balance at the very highest levels, when gear approaches perfection; you don't want everyone shooting for the same build themselves and trying to shove off the other high-level stuff on the unwitting, because people don't stay unwitting for long and will soon cry foul (*cough* ES *cough*). 2. Undermine searchable pricing. I say "undermine" because, quite frankly, searchable pricing is inevitable. It already exists somewhat on third-party shop indexing sites, allowing users to quickly find whoever is selling a piece of gear... and actually, finding them fast is perfectly fine, nothing to worry about there. The part that is troubling, however, is the ability for sellers to use the ~b/o tags to create searchable pricing, allowing for quick price checks. I strongly recommend that GGG add features to the game which allow your sell-items to be publicly searchable, perhaps even bid on (also nothing wrong with that)... but completely block users from determining price using this method (any such auctions would have to be silent). By incorporating these features in-game, the opportunity for third-parties to ruin everything would be reduced, as only the hard-core price-fixers would be interested in cooperating in the price-searches. 3. Maintain encounter variance. This one is simple; never allow instantaneous buy-outs. I'm not saying that a player who plays 2 hours in the evening in California should never be able to trade with someone who plays 2 hours in the evening in Australia; perhaps that silent auction system mentioned before could be used. However, if it is, it shouldn't be "here's a refund of what you had over the highest bidder." No, screw that; if you bid 3 Exalts and the second highest bid is 1, that item costs you 3 Exalts. No mechanism should be allowed which prevents sellers from selling too low, or buyers from buying too high, so long as all trades are voluntary. (Credit to RogueMage for significant inspiration and talking me out of some of my misconceptions... I fought him rather hard on it, too.) TL;DR: Just read section 1 if that's all you have time for. When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted. Last edited by ScrotieMcB#2697 on Oct 4, 2013, 5:52:26 AM
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Excellent post Scrotie. I'd like to say first that I enjoy all of your posts, even if I lurk on these forums for the most part. They're always insightful and well thought out, even if I may not agree with every post you make.
Section 3.1 is the big one for me. The item pool is so homogeneous in D3 it makes me sick. Each gear slot had certain desirable affixes for EVERY class, hence we saw no diversity in what builds would use certain items. To me, like you mentioned, the amount of knowledge required to properly evaluate items is paramount. That's what made D2:LoD so addictive. Even if I knew what unique dropped every time it spawned (except for jewelry of course), I knew that there were several that may not be mainstream (as opposed to Shako for example) and have a niche use for someone. Same for rare items. I think this holds true for the most part in PoE. Sure there are certain things to look for on chests, helms, gloves. Some slots will always be defaulted to a more generic "this is where I will get x affix", mainly defensive stats (res, ar/ev/es, life etc). The difference is knowing the next level of rolls on an item. Knowing all your max values for damage mods on some of these more 'generic' gear slots. Attack speed, crit, move speed, ele/phys damage modifiers, affix tiers for these mods etc and having the ability to decipher what is perceived as having a good market value of the mix. Even after Arreat Summit went live, there were so many combinations of things you could craft to the godliest of rares that could be found, that it required a complete knowledge of the game to properly evaluate, craft, or find (knowing your loot tables) these items. I think this same line of thought holds true for gameplay as well. I mean, this sounds obvious I suppose. But I remember when I first started playing HC in LoD. I had to learn every problem area of the game, know what every monster affix modifier/aura did, and the numbers needed to offset these disadvantages. In D3, even combat has become trivial for some builds (e.g. most barb builds). My barb in D3 is far from uber geared, but could stand against any elite / boss with little effort on high mp levels, even ubers. I didn't have to worry about what mods the pack spawned with, or what area level I was in with respect to my own level. Just use hammer and leech massive amounts of life with far from end game gear. Barbs are probably the worst example, but even in D2 as melee, fire enchant or bone fetishes could destroy you when you killed the mob unless your DR was high enough. Or multiple shot lightning enchanted meant playing safer and focus more on positioning. There was a lot to know about the games mechanics to survive and keep chasing the carrot, just like there was a lot to know about item prefixes and suffixes in regard to crafting and using the cube. While the penalty for a lack of this knowledge is strictly greater in HC leagues (ya know, permanent death), this knowledge is still beyond valuable for SC as well. Sure, I don't lose my toon if I die (yes I play scrubcore), BUT, once you get to the high 80s and into the 90s, losing the XP means much more than just saying 'Oh well, let's farm ledge/docks some more'. It's tons of lost time (days/weeks at high enough levels) and definitely currency (rolling maps and maintaining a pool is, as we know, super expensive even if party sharing the responsibilities). Lastly, I think people get too wrapped up in the word diversity to an extent. Games like D2 and PoE are all about values, min/maxing. When we are working with numbers, there will always be something that is superior to other things, empirically speaking. And as humans, some of us may be drawn strictly to those numbers and others may be drawn to find ways to make the less often traveled path work. That's what's great about these games. I think PoE is accomplishing this, though it's not perfect and there is room for improvement (some things are OP and need nerfs/tweaking afterall). After playing 500+ hours of D3, the equation just felt watered down and simple. My biggest complaint with PoE is the lack of that knowledge from GGG. Sure, some things we will figure out as a community on our own. But there are serious question marks about the exact science of 'crafting' we have (as one example). I'd like more datamined information, and a more robust compendium of knowledge similar to the Arreat Summit. That's what we all crave anyway. At least those of us that are considered more 'hardcore' about these games. Anyway, sorry if some of this comes across as not well thought out. It's 4 am and I can't really tell if I am articulating my thoughts in the fashion I am meaning to. Regardless, this is a good topic to discuss, thanks for the thought provoking thread! Last edited by HeavyUnit#3871 on Oct 4, 2013, 4:27:49 AM
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Drop system killed D3. Not existing crafting system helped it to die.
They started fixing second one (archon items), and are going to fix the first one (loot 2.0). Fail examples, max itemlevel drop, from the hardest difficulty in game:
Spoiler
  While good weapons are consider to have 1000+ DPS. IGN @Ostropalca Last edited by Evantis#3706 on Oct 4, 2013, 4:35:27 AM
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"What I mean by diversity is this: 1. The answer to "which builds are best?" isn't obvious. This means that determining the best items isn't obvious either, because items need to fit builds. 2. The answer to "which three prefixes are best?" isn't obvious, even when considering just a single build. This means that, in addition to trying to get maxed values, you need to pick which affixes matter most to you, and it's a tough decision. Note that, under a three-prefix, three-suffix system, this is mostly about closing the distance between 3rd and 4th; it's okay to have one affix (maybe two) which is obviously best for the build, but determining the exact three should be a subject of intense debate among veterans. 3. The answer to "rare or unique best-in-slot?" isn't obvious when considering a single build. This means that, in general, perfect rares should trump any possible unique choice slightly yet definitively, because in reality perfect rares don't exist, it's the near-perfects which do. The motivation behind all three of these is to make item valuation difficult; that's the point here. In terms of GGG not releasing information — good! It's exactly the right move on their part. If they just went and told us how many Fusings it would take to get a 6L, for example, then in no time people would be using that information to determine the proper, exact valuation of 6L versus 5L, et cetera. They release information, and the result is easier valuation. Fuck that shit; GGG, hold onto your secrets. (Even when I ask you, as I have and likely will again.) When Stephen Colbert was killed by HYDRA's Project Insight in 2014, the comedy world lost a hero. Since his life model decoy isn't up to the task, please do not mistake my performance as political discussion. I'm just doing what Steve would have wanted. Last edited by ScrotieMcB#2697 on Oct 4, 2013, 4:49:26 AM
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(generalisation of the topic)
As soon as people reach "know it all" the fun to play is lost. The fun in the game is the uncertainty of the outcome. Whether it is the price/ potential usefulness of an item or the potency of a build, the player must be kept guessing. As soon every outcome is known the game stops being a game and becomes a "work". The player is no longer wondering "will it work" but rather being annoyed that it is not working as fast as he wants it to work. (for ex. not having enough top tier drops per day or build not giving fast enough clear times, items not selling as fast as expected) Therefore the player must be always kept guessing. How? ScrotieMcB already mentioned key points. But I'll generalise it a bit. a) Non standardization of the value of items. Keep it dynamic. Buff, nerf, introduce alternatives, but never let the value of items retain the same value over long periods of time. In practice this may be hard -to-impossible to achieve. But rocking the boat will help. b) Constant influx of new variables. Wether it is a new unique or skill gem or enemy type, map mod or enemy aura - a new variable produces new interactions and new possibilities which are not always obvious from the start. Therefore the guessing and experimentation. c) Not showing the man behind the curtain. Only trough experimentation and deduction the mechanics of the game should be understood. It should be obvious what certain feature does, but far less obvious - how? (Kripp with his excel sheets being the example. And there are more people than him that enjoy this and it is a game of its own to them) Tl;DR; Keep player guessing. Without challenge and uncertainty a game is not a game. |
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Everybody seems just bored enuff to write huge walls of text.
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" Thanks for your insightful thoughts and contributing them to this thread. Hidden info / mechanics - I guess this is a personal preference thing. To me the most fun part of this game (and D2) is the feeling of always making progress every time I log in and run maps or level a new toon. With all the information available from D2, I always new I would find something worth trading or an item I could stash away for a later build. Think about it. My typical run in D2 was Pit -> Countess -> Arcane Sanctuary -> Trav -> Shenk / Eld -> Worldstone Keep -> Baal -> cows. Each zone provided something different. Be it 85 areas for the best uniques / whites, key runs, rune drops etc. There was always something to find. The plethora of items that were useful made every run feel fruitful. Sure some runs were more lucrative than others, but that's my point in the first place. I don't think you can truly have parity in games like these (I think we're agreeing on this), because without shitty items, you don't really have godly items. A point of reference is needed. Which makes sense when we talk about how unexciting the loot hunt in D3 is, everything is the same. How does this tie into hidden info? Well, the more I know about basic mechanics and specific information, the more it expands the viable loot table past just GG rares and uniques. I don't think the fun is lost at all. I want to find stuff, I want the item slot machine to be useful on all levels. Interesting and compelling drops, even if it's just that sweet top level white item that can be used for crafting, which by comparison isn't as thrilling as finding 2os Crown of Ages (or Koams) for example. But maybe CoA is a good example of what you're going for here (as far as variation in items). Say one dropped for me. I'm immediately excited because it was one of the best, or at least rare, drops in the game. However, I'm more excited anticipating the IDing because 1os/2os was a big difference in value, and thus made this particular drop much more compelling than finding boatloads of shitty whitewashed rares in D3. I mentioned crafting in PoE as an example of mechanics I'd like to have more concrete information on. I knew in D2 that clvl and ilvl impacted what values could roll on something when I'm crafting in the cube. This was useful information and gave me a starting point for what to look for on runs (thus enhancing some sense of progress). In PoE, no one really knows if scraps or whetstones truly make a difference linking, socketing, or rolling affizes. Maybe I haven't looked hard enough, but I haven't found a definitive answer anywhere. Here on the forums, reddit, whatever. I've googled it and read threads about certain math involved with linking and socket rolling but each one comes with a caveat that it hasn't been verified or hasn't been substantiated. Some people keep fusing away hundred and hundreds of times or fuse a 6L in 100 fusing with no scraps. Meanwhile there is no response from GGG on something so simple in the game. This is the kind of info I'm talking about. I don't mind that RNG plays a huge factor. But to me, tedious antiquated methodology, artificial difficulty, or lack of public knowledge does not increase the fun factor or true difficulty of a game. All that said, I'm not saying it's the downfall of the game. I love this game, and it keeps me logging in every day just as D2 did. But I think you can open up the playbook a little here and let people in on some stuff while keeping the core mechanics of the game intact. With release coming up, this is an important factor in my opinion. The game doesn't need to be overly accessible to any Tom, Dick, and Harry that logs on, but an active player base ensures the longevity of a game. If people get frustrated because they can't find definitive knowledge on some things it'll be interesting to see how that impacts long term player populations. Last edited by HeavyUnit#3871 on Oct 4, 2013, 2:22:07 PM
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It's economy isn't dead. It's just too hard to find items in the world, and too easy to get top items off the AH. Economy is fine, it's just boring.
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I understand the premise of the post. It's internally consistent and logical. I may be an outlier, but this way of thinking just doesn't apply to me.
Let me say upfront that I'm new to PoE. In fact this is my first post here. I just reached Act III in Normal. So, if I understand correctly, I should be in the endorphin-filled "honeymoon" period of loot finding wonderment. I'm not. I can't wait until I know what the stuff I find is worth. Maybe I've become jaded by other games where halos, beams of light and the playing of the Star Spangled Banner when certain items drop is no indication of their value. I know there's a market out there, whether I'm aware of it or not. Until I understand that market, most of what I find is worthless (not an upgrade for me) or annoying (takes up stash space). Right now my stash is filled with yellow and a couple gold items I can't use. I know most of them are truly worthless, because they're low level. But at this point I don't even know if they might be worthwhile to keep for leveling up another class. I'm certainly not going to attempt to trade any of them, because I know I'd get ripped off without understanding the market first. I'd rather sell the items to a vendor than let some predator profit off my ignorance. So that's just what I'll do when I completely run out of space. The game itself is fun, and I'm enjoying playing so far. But the trading and currency system is so complicated and obfuscated, I don't know if I'll ever play anything but 100% self-found (within my own account anyway). So maybe I'm just an exception to the rule. | |
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You'll get there Xeju. It just takes time. I believe that's the point Scrotie and soulburn are making though. Your desire to know what your drops are worth is what immerses you in the game and drives you to learn more.
I suppose I kind of got of topic, but I think it's all related. Not drop rates, but quality of drops and variety of drops. While it doesn't impact the economy directly, it keeps people playing the game and gives newer / poorer players an avenue to access higher level content or gear if they put the time in and go about things in a more blue collar way. Not everyone gets lucky and has a Koams drop to bankroll their other toons. |
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