Orb of Chance Community Log

24 occultist vestment

7 rare
17 magic
"
Tygerwoody wrote:
300 chances on glorious plate

288 magic
12 rare
0 unique

wow 12 rare out of 288 is hard to believe
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SSF HC Legacy Witch Lvl 53
Last edited by ventiman#1405 on Apr 3, 2013, 8:17:44 PM
26 Chances rolled on Iron Rings

25 Magic
1 Rare
0 Unique

RNG not in my favor today...
"
Tygerwoody wrote:
300 chances on glorious plate

288 magic
12 rare
0 unique


having done 1500 i know you didnt have that few rares unless you only counter the good ones :P the statistical anomaly you have presented is indeed hard to believe
IGN: CritLAMETotem


4 gold rings - 4 magic
1 gold amulet - 1 magic
1 nubock gloves - 1 magic
Update on prior post

Imperial Bow (20 Attempts)----------- Magic 14 / Rare 6 / Unique 0
Glorious Plate (30 Attempts)----------- Magic 24 / Rare 6 / Unique 0
Occultist Vestment (13 Attempts)----------- Magic 10 / Rare 3 / Unique 0
Gold Ring (11 Attempts)----------- Magic 8 / Rare 3 / Unique 0
Onyx Amulet (3 Attempts)----------- Magic 3 / Rare 0 / Unique 0
Engraved Wand (4 Attempts)----------- Magic 3 / Rare 1 / Unique 0
Karui Maul (65 Attempts)----------- Magic 55 / Rare 10 / Unique 0
Mesh Boots (2 Attempts)----------- Magic 2 / Rare 0 / Unique 0
Maelstrom Staff (11 Attempts)----------- Magic 10 / Rare 1 / Unique 0
Vaal Pyramid Map (2 Attempts)----------- Magic 2 / Rare 0 / Unique 0
Archon Kite Shield (1 Attempts)----------- Magic 1 / Rare 0 / Unique 0
Ticket Hood (6 Attempts)----------- Magic 4 / Rare 2 / Unique 0
Sapphire Ring (2 Attempts)----------- Magic 1 / Rare 1 / Unique 0
Total (170 Attempts)----------- Magic 137 / Rare 33 / Unique 0

Percentage Magic 80.6% / Rare 19.4% / Unique 0%
Rare to Magic Ratio: 4.15
IGN: Robin_Hudd
"
ventiman wrote:
24 occultist vestment

7 rare
17 magic
"
Tygerwoody wrote:
300 chances on glorious plate

288 magic
12 rare
0 unique

wow 12 rare out of 288 is hard to believe


It's more than hard to believe - he is completely full of shit. If we assume a 20% probability of a rare, the likelihood of achieving 12 or fewer successes in 300 is 1 in 1,870,436,400,506,550. That is about 10 million times less likely than winning the powerball jackpot on a single ticket purchased.

If you assume rares are 1/6, which is extremely hard to believe based on my sample, it becomes 1 in 124,467,700,120 which is only 710 times less likely than winning powerball.

I don't know what this person hopes to get by fabricating these numbers - but suggest they be excluded from consideration.

IGN: Robin_Hudd
"
Spartacus219 wrote:
26 Chances rolled on Iron Rings

25 Magic
1 Rare
0 Unique

RNG not in my favor today...
So that people don't get confused, although the success rate here is actually lower than 12/300 - it is entirely more believable. Assuming 1/5 rares, this is likely to occur 1/44 times. Assuming 1/6, this is likely to occur 1/18 times.
IGN: Robin_Hudd
I just stumbled upon this topic and decided to try those unused orbs of chance of mine.

Results were following:

5 gold rings -->
2 rare
3 magical
4 gold rings

4 magic
20 gold rings: 14 Magic, 6 Rare

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