Orb of Chance Community Log
24 occultist vestment
7 rare 17 magic " wow 12 rare out of 288 is hard to believe https://poe-ssf.herokuapp.com/. Join the fun. SSF HC Legacy Witch Lvl 53 Last edited by ventiman#1405 on Apr 3, 2013, 8:17:44 PM
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26 Chances rolled on Iron Rings
25 Magic 1 Rare 0 Unique RNG not in my favor today... |
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" having done 1500 i know you didnt have that few rares unless you only counter the good ones :P the statistical anomaly you have presented is indeed hard to believe IGN: CritLAMETotem
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4 gold rings - 4 magic
1 gold amulet - 1 magic 1 nubock gloves - 1 magic |
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Update on prior post
Imperial Bow (20 Attempts)----------- Magic 14 / Rare 6 / Unique 0 Glorious Plate (30 Attempts)----------- Magic 24 / Rare 6 / Unique 0 Occultist Vestment (13 Attempts)----------- Magic 10 / Rare 3 / Unique 0 Gold Ring (11 Attempts)----------- Magic 8 / Rare 3 / Unique 0 Onyx Amulet (3 Attempts)----------- Magic 3 / Rare 0 / Unique 0 Engraved Wand (4 Attempts)----------- Magic 3 / Rare 1 / Unique 0 Karui Maul (65 Attempts)----------- Magic 55 / Rare 10 / Unique 0 Mesh Boots (2 Attempts)----------- Magic 2 / Rare 0 / Unique 0 Maelstrom Staff (11 Attempts)----------- Magic 10 / Rare 1 / Unique 0 Vaal Pyramid Map (2 Attempts)----------- Magic 2 / Rare 0 / Unique 0 Archon Kite Shield (1 Attempts)----------- Magic 1 / Rare 0 / Unique 0 Ticket Hood (6 Attempts)----------- Magic 4 / Rare 2 / Unique 0 Sapphire Ring (2 Attempts)----------- Magic 1 / Rare 1 / Unique 0 Total (170 Attempts)----------- Magic 137 / Rare 33 / Unique 0 Percentage Magic 80.6% / Rare 19.4% / Unique 0% Rare to Magic Ratio: 4.15 IGN: Robin_Hudd
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" It's more than hard to believe - he is completely full of shit. If we assume a 20% probability of a rare, the likelihood of achieving 12 or fewer successes in 300 is 1 in 1,870,436,400,506,550. That is about 10 million times less likely than winning the powerball jackpot on a single ticket purchased. If you assume rares are 1/6, which is extremely hard to believe based on my sample, it becomes 1 in 124,467,700,120 which is only 710 times less likely than winning powerball. I don't know what this person hopes to get by fabricating these numbers - but suggest they be excluded from consideration. IGN: Robin_Hudd
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"So that people don't get confused, although the success rate here is actually lower than 12/300 - it is entirely more believable. Assuming 1/5 rares, this is likely to occur 1/44 times. Assuming 1/6, this is likely to occur 1/18 times. IGN: Robin_Hudd
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I just stumbled upon this topic and decided to try those unused orbs of chance of mine.
Results were following: 5 gold rings --> 2 rare 3 magical |
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4 gold rings
4 magic |
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20 gold rings: 14 Magic, 6 Rare
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