Orb of Chance Community Log
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This log is no longer valid as of Patch 0.10.7.
From the 0.10.7 Patch Notes: " Asked Mark about this through PM, here is the response I received: " In other words, the chance is no longer evenly distributed, meaning a log such as this one is now useless. As such I'll no longer be updating this. Thanks for all the contributions while it was around. It was a fun project at the very least! :)
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 Orb of Chance odds last known modification: Patch 0.9.10f Log reset to compensate. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please do not come here just to post that you got a Unique from an Orb of Chance. In order for the data to be accurate, you must regularly post your all of your statistics, not just the uniques you find. The reason for this is if the only data people posted was of uniques, the data would be biased towards uniques making the odds seem higher than they really are - it's important to keep that from happening. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Complete logged data: 5638 - Magic 1398 - Rare 0029 - Unique ----- 7065 - Total Post your own statistics, and I'll add them to the log. Be sure to include what kind of item(s) it was so that I can confirm it has a unique form - this is important! If this isn't done, your data can't be counted. Keep in mind that the Unique rates will probably never be entirely accurate; It will take thousands of orbs before I'd feel confident saying the statistics are even "close." Just as an example, at the time of writing this, there are currently almost 200 Rares logged, and the value is still off by over 5%. Take the unique probabilities as you read them with a grain of salt, as they are likely pretty far off - knowing the probabilities doesn't make them any less arbitrary. Related Developer Quotes:
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From Page 5:
" From Page 7: " Via PM: " Last edited by MonopolyLegend#6284 on May 26, 2013, 8:05:49 PM
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As high as a 1 in 4 of a rare?!?
That's higher than I expected, though I suppose it makes perfect sense given that 4xchance=1xscouring~=1xalchemy. It also means that selling chance for scouring is inefficient. 4 chance = 1 alchemy + 4 transmutation + X (Where X is a fraction of a 'make unique' orb) As economies tend toward efficiency, this has several consequences: 1) Reduced supply of scouring will increase the value of scouring 2) Reduced supply of scouring will decrease demand for alchemy. 3) Decreased demand for alchemy will decrease the value of alchemy. Make Elite IV:Dangerous happen!
Pledge your backing at KICKSTARTER! http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1461411552/elite-dangerous | |
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Hey there, Jawa. I've seen you around in Merciless...working my new archer up there now. :) Keep in mind that this isn't entirely accurate yet, since it is from such a small sample size.
Last edited by MonopolyLegend#6284 on Jun 21, 2012, 6:17:36 AM
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Looks to me as though someone is rooting for the mesh unique boots!!!
IGN: Annassassin
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" I figured if I'm going to be using all these orbs, I may as well try for something cool. If/when I get the boots, I'll move on to a different base item. The overall goal is to keep an enormous log of these things and hopefully determine approximate probabilities. Getting fun toys along the way is an added bonus! :) Last edited by MonopolyLegend#6284 on Jun 21, 2012, 7:48:37 AM
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1 rare, 4 magic so far.
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" Got it, thanks |
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It's probably too late now, but this would also be a good time to grab some probabilities for the different fixes.
TehHammer is not a crime!
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" Hm? |
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1 rare, 3 magic.
I always thought the future depended on the choices you made.
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