Map Management Resource

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Flapdrol wrote:

My suggestion would be to not do all of the above (I'm a CS guy and not a methodologist, and this will show). Data gathering to the point where it becomes accurate will be a tremendous amount of work.

1) Work with estimates. Take the spreadsheet, guesstimate values for chaining and chill, round everything and use this
2) Use the remaining guesstimates that were discussed above
3) Do the math (in the elaborate spreadsheet) and see what comes out
4) Now vary some of your guesstimates and see how the outcomes change in the spreadsheet. This will show that some guesstimates urgently need refining as small changes in the guesstimate give dramatic changes in the output, while other guesstimates do not.
5) Now you can work on gathering data until you can show that your model is fairly robust.

Works for me. I'm still kind of in the pure-math mindset where you build everything from the ground up.

Shouldn't it be possible to do in excel? You don't need all the 18C4 different combinations to be separately listed, just generate things on the fly.

But what can I say, my first thought was matlab.

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ScrotieMcB wrote:

Hmm, I don't think Excel will be able to handle it; there are 80,621,568 different rare map affix possibilities (4-, 5-, and 6-affix rares all added together), and there are max 1,048,575 rows per sheet, which would mean 77 sheets for that task alone. Excel would probably break under the stress.

Does anyone know a program that can handle that kind of statistical volume?

You only do that when you need to know whether it will take 8.02345 chaos orbs or 8.02346. I am really looking for "about 8 or 9 so". We want to use this for decison-making, not for exact calculations.

The decisons we need to make are "Play", "Reroll" and "Too Close to Matter".

Write a program that takes the table (with guesses for chain and chill), and generates all maps but does not store them in Excel, but only calculates the adjusted map IIQ, the probability of generating the map and adds those probabilities to intervals of adjusted map IIQ (say 10%),

I hereby define the term adjusted map IIQ as map IIQ adjusted for Maze, +Rare, +Magic, Double Boss and +Pack size, +Larger Area. I leave it to Scrotie to define the formula exactly.

So you end up with a simple list of: adjusted map IIQ interval : prob adjusted map IIQ is in that interval
[0-10 adjusted IIQ] - 0.01
[10-20 adjusted IIQ] - 0.03
.....
[300-310 adjusted IIQ] - 0.02

From that you can calculate a simple decision list (with an interval to handle uncertainty, see below). Again, I leave this formula to Scrotie (if only to save him the trouble of correcting me):

For each map value in chaos (only map value matters, the level is not important, so this takes out any market fluctuations!):

Example:
1 chaos: Play
2 chaos: Reroll if adj.mapIIQ < 50%, Play > 70%
3 chaos: Reroll < 60%, Play > 80%
....
90 chaos: Reroll < 350%, Play > 390%

The interval will be caused by looking how different estimates influence the results. Put all guesses at "bad" and run the program, put all guesses at "good" and run the program and see where your intervals are. If they are too big, play with the guesstimates until we know which ones are important. Gather data for them only, improve the guesses and adjust the intervals.

These shared projects typically do not finish if you make it too complex. Start simple, and elaborate where necessary. We have to make sure we have something useful ASAP, which can converge later on. If the programs are there, everyone can oput in his own paramters and play. If you have something useful, you have a bandwagon that people can jump on.

That decision list will be massively useful. I suspect the guesstimate intervals will be relatively small (unless you have really wild ideas on some ofthe parameters).

Something we well need in calculations.
Each line contains a mutually exclusive set of affixes.

Emanant, Capricious, Undead, Skeletal, Slithering, Villainous, Multifarious.
Burning, Freezing, Shocking. - ???
Grounded, Incombustible, Molten.
Punishing, Mirrored.
of Elemental Weakness, of Enfeeblement, of Tempororal Chains, of the Warlord, of Vulnerability.
of Flames, of Ice.
of Smothering, of Stasis.
[Massive, Labyrinthine.]

Are these sets correct? Are there others? Were such sets already listed somewhere?

The two reflect mods are not mutually exclusive, but good call!
(I'm not sure Molten, etc. are either)

Grounded, Incombustible, Molten are compatible: I have seen maps with Fire and Lightning res, which are somewhat disconcerting for my Glare/LA/Blackgleam Ranger

So uh... I just got this:



...Is that worth running as-is, or should I ID and try to roll it higher?

Why, why, WHY is this not a sticky?

Just wanted to say I'm backing out of my investigation into maps for now. I've kind of lost interest in PoE, which I believe will be temporary and that I'll come back at some point (perhaps even soon).

Sticky please

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Budget_player_cadet wrote:

So uh... I just got this:

...Is that worth running as-is, or should I ID and try to roll it higher?

The rare bonus is way too small for these kind of map.s

ID it and unless it is fantastic (Larger Area plus something nice), follow the advice of Bill Haley and the Comets:

Get out from that kitchen and rattle those pots and pans
Get out from that kitchen and rattle those pots and pans
Well, roll my breakfast 'cause I'm a hungry man

I said Scour, chisel and roll
I said Scour, chisel and roll
I said Scour, chisel and roll
I said Scour, chisel and roll
Well, you never do nothin' to save your doggone soul