6-socket Orb of Fusing Community Log (done)

245 jewelers
1381 fusing
19 5-links
0 6-links

45 Jewelers.
184 Fusings, using a Whetstone to 1% each time.




Gankstaboo on Hardcore rolled this on my behalf.

carcass jack
crafting sessions separated by '+'
- jewellers (5L qnt): 20+20(1)+20+38(2) = 6S in 98 tries, 2x 5S
- fusings (4L qnt): 10+15(1)+12(2)+1 = 5L in 38 tries, 3x 4L

237 fuses and finally 5L
And now finally nice rolled to :D
Bougth it 6s

600 JO to 6S
150 FO to 5L

Aint gonna try to 6L it until I hoard 1500 fusings and an Eternal Orb.

i am at around 100 fusings so far:



no 5L yet

but only took 20 jewellers to 6S!

80 jewelers to 6 socket
16 fusings, 20% quality each time 05l 06l

looking at the situation from a mathematical point of view, and assuming that each socket has a 50% chance of linking to the next socket, for a total of 5 links to chain together all 6 sockets, there is a 0.03125% chance of acquiring a "6L" item. the basic math on this is simple, and can be done by anyone, even the mathematically challenged.

there are a total of 5 pairs of sockets that can link to each other. each pair of sockets that have the potential to link to each other is represented by simply the number 1, so with a 50% chance of a link, there is a 0.5 (or 50%) chance of each link successfully pairing a set of sockets.

so the formula would be 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.03125. simple really right?

however, theres a catch to this. the catch is that even though you have a roughly 0.03% chance of rolling a "6L", each time you use a fusing on it, it doesnt matter how many fusings youve used, as each roll is independent of each other roll, with no accumulating bonus to rolls. simply put, each and every time you use a fusing, no matter how many you have previously used, there is still only a 0.03% chance of it rolling a "6L".

with the somewhat new mechanic of quality modifying the chance of getting better links, this formula no longer applies if you have quality on the item your in the process of fusing. lets assume for a moment (for simplicities sake) that each 1% quality on it raises the chance to roll a "6L" by 1% of the previous value (im 99% sure this number is wrong, but this is just an example). that would barely increase the chance of rolling a "6L".

here is the formula (assuming that the value is 1% increase in chance per 1% quality)

(0.03125 x 0.2) + 0.03125 = 0.0375

as stated, im 99% sure that this number is going to be wrong, but if its not, thats only a 0.00625% increase in the base chance, even with quality.

i know im not the first person to do this mathematical approach to the difficulty of rolling a "6L" item, and almost assuredly wont be the last, but i wanted to lay it out just the same, so that others who might not be inclined to do the math on it will know the approximate chance per fusing, and possibly even have someone that is better at math than i am check my work (which was all done on a calculator to be perfectly honest), and possibly help others determine the actual % value per 1% quality on an item.

3 jews = 6s
7 fusing = 6L

RNJESUS!

966 fusings | 20% each time

5L = 1

6L = 0