Two Shav's Drops in Four Days

It's not two Shavs but....



Both of these dropped today maybe an hour or two apart. And another BoR next day...

That.
Is.
Awesome.

Grats OP.... now to make a build around one of them!!!

I remember when I first found out you can get Uniques by chancing correct base item. Eight Orb of Chances later and I got a legendary Occultist's Vestments. Of course, it was Infernal Mantle, but it still felt good.

For a very good write-up on the "streaky" nature of random systems, see this article.

In short, the left half of the below image has actual random placement of dots.



Hence, streaks. We have the internet, people can squee about them easily, they are perceived as more significant than they are.

About 2-3 months ago I had an exalt drop on two different consecutive lvl 66 Tropical Island maps. Not seen an exalt since.

"

exhortatory wrote:

For a very good write-up on the "streaky" nature of random systems, see this article.

In short, the left half of the below image has actual random placement of dots.



Hence, streaks. We have the internet, people can squee about them easily, they are perceived as more significant than they are.

Nice article that is exactly what our prof had told us and which was the point I was trying to make earlier. I will bookmark that for the future so I can actually give a source other than my prof from years ago, haha.

"

hazydoc wrote:

"

exhortatory wrote:

For a very good write-up on the "streaky" nature of random systems, see this article.

In short, the left half of the below image has actual random placement of dots.



Hence, streaks. We have the internet, people can squee about them easily, they are perceived as more significant than they are.

Nice article that is exactly what our prof had told us and which was the point I was trying to make earlier. I will bookmark that for the future so I can actually give a source other than my prof from years ago, haha.

Draw all the fancy pictures you want, numbers tell you exactly what the likelihood of streaks are.

There is nothing complicated about it.. Probability of coin toss:
2 streaks 0.5
3 streak 0.25
4 streak 0.125
4 streak 0.0625

ect. ect. it goes toward zero probability to get infinite streak.

Rolling a die:
2 streaks 0.166
3 streak 0.027

Already less than 3% to roll any value on a die three times in a row.


That picture is hella misleading. A streak would mean landing on the SAME spot.

"

crazytrain411 wrote:

Draw all the fancy pictures you want, numbers tell you exactly what the likelihood of streaks are.

You are not talking about the same thing.

The guy is talking about random generators not being really random (which is definitely the case) and he illustrates about randomness by showing 2 distributions of dots.
The one on the one looks random, the one on the right is definitely a uniform non-random distribution. And still, most people have the impression that a random distribution should look regular like the one on the right because you should get something every X try on average.

You on the other side are talking about pure probabilities.
Your probabilities would pre-suppose that the random generator is made in such a way that each roll is truly independant from the previous and next rolls.
Unfortunately, most random generators simple enough to be run very fast (=as a loot system) do not produce 100% independant rolls.

So your probabilities, however accurate they are, are heavily biaised by the random generators not being 100% random.
Obviously, with computing power getting bigger and bigger, better random generators can be used in games, which will make your probabilities more and more accurate, avoiding these accidents that I wouldn't call streaks.

"

exhortatory wrote:

For a very good write-up on the "streaky" nature of random systems, see this article.

In short, the left half of the below image has actual random placement of dots.



Hence, streaks. We have the internet, people can squee about them easily, they are perceived as more significant than they are.

And somewhere in in the infinite of randomness, the picture on the right exists as well/