Jonathan and Mark, don't fool yourself.

In the "Dropped Frames" interview, Jonathan said that Mark told him in a discussion:
"Look, the retention of this PoE2 launch, like in terms of concurrent users on weekend to weekend, is higher than any PoE1 launch we ever had before, so it can't be that bad."

Well, yes, but actually no.

The "numbers" are obviously higher because the crowd/reach was bigger.
The important thing is how it performs percentage-wise.

While GGG obviously has more accurate numbers because they can see how many play on Steam, standalone, Epic Games, and console together - the Steam numbers are an okayish indicator.

So, let's look at the numbers.

"Path of Exile 2 - 0.1.0" had a player peak of 578,562 and an avg of 304,199.
One month later, the player peak was at 353,966 and an avg of 190,494.

Going from 578,562 to 353,966 (peak) is a loss of 224,596 (40%).
Going from 304,199 to 190,494 (avg.) is a loss of 113,705 (37%).

And yes, this "retention" is in isolation better than PoE1 launches.
There, the numbers drop around 10%-15% faster, BUT the retention of the leagues themselves is better.
In fact, most PoE1 leagues in recent years showed an increase in retention, thus the PoE community grew (slowly but surely).
For everyone who wants to take a look for themselves regarding PoE1 growth:
https://poedb.tw/us/League#ConcurrentPlayers

How is it with PoE2?
PoE2 0.1.0 had a player peak of 578,562.
PoE2 0.2.0 had a player peak of 246,354.
Going from 578,562 to 246,354 is a loss of 332,208 (59%).
Losing nearly 60% of the player base from one league to another NEVER happened before, period.
Not Ultimatum, not Kalandra, not Archnemesis, NEVER.

If 25% or 30% left from 0.1.0 to 0.2.0 - ok, could be they were new players, tried PoE and didn't like it... but 60%???

On top, probably not only a few ppl use PoE2 atm as a waiting room for "Last Epoch - Season 2", so if we hit the next month of PoE2 0.2.0 - the numbers will most likely look dooming.
From what it looks like, my prediction is:
"PoE2 0.2.0 will be on day 17 below day 17 of the Settlers league, thus even with a way better start in total numbers, an unseen downfall in player retention in PoE history."

"

While GGG obviously has more accurate numbers

All that needed to be said about this post.

You are currently arguing with people, the game directors specifically, who have better data than you.

"

Mashgesture#2912 wrote:

"

While GGG obviously has more accurate numbers

All that needed to be said about this post.

You are currently arguing with people, the game directors specifically, who have better data than you.

You know what an indicator is?

And no, they don't have "better data", they have "more data".

Or do you imply that the standalone, Epic Games, and console users don't follow a similar pattern in retention compared to the Steam users?

yeah, they should totally agree with those few hundreds people crying about the game being bad and dead and don't pay any attention to equivalent of a small city that plays the game without whining every 5 minutes about something.

I would argue that the retention rate is higher for those who use the standalone client more than steam, Epic or Console.

But I would also state that using Steam Chart numbers is flawed. It does not account for people who are afk or botting (we all know it happens).

The only people who have data that can be used for an "active" player base are the devs. Which would be people actively playing the game not sitting in their hideout.

Those would be the numbers I would want to see to determine how "successful" player retention is.

They can't just admit that their vision is DOA and no one actually wants it.

Even when they have stats from PoE1 and amount of people playing Ruthless.

They have all the stats showing most players want to be overpowered.

And still think that vision will ever be popular.



Remember we have Lightning Spear in PoE2 right now (and goes right against "vision" lmao, but also actually fun skill). I feel that if that build didn't exist, we will have around 50k already. Since other builds are absolutely boring and slow.

I still can't comprehend them trying to use Diablo II as example of game they follow.



It was a thing in D2. Temporalis is a joke even pre-nerfed one if you compare it to Enigma.

And NO ONE NERFED IT. And people played D2 for years and had no problems...

Maybe you shouldn't be obsessed with "balance" and instead make the game fun?..

"

Hornsent#1110 wrote:

They can't just admit that their vision is DOA and no one actually wants it.

Even when they have stats from PoE1 and amount of people playing Ruthless.

They have all the stats showing most players want to be overpowered.

And still think that vision will ever be popular.



Remember we have Lightning Spear in PoE2 right now (and goes right against "vision" lmao, but also actually fun skill). I feel that if that build didn't exist, we will have around 50k already. Since other builds are absolutely boring and slow.

Of course if there is a broken build everyone will play it, because if they do not they will be left behind. Remember this game is all about upgrades, and unless you are playing SSF. That means you have to farm currency, if there is a build that is farming faster then the rest everyone is going to play it to farm.

However, if all builds were around the same, even if that speed was slower, there would be more build diversity because their wouldnt be FOMO.

A more balance gameplay that is equal across skills and classes is needed, and it does not matter if that means a slower pace. As long as people's time feels rewarding.

"

Mashgesture#2912 wrote:

Obviously, PoE2 EA had a higher peak than a game that is over 10 years old, and is less accessible and is for many new ppl not modernized enough, duh.
PoE1 was niche, and PoE2 got a lot of spotlight.

Ah... no game exceeds the launch numbers? Interesting.
How many ppl played PoE1 on launch? How many returned from league to league to league?

Mhm, we don't know how many ppl use the standalone? Interesting. Because Chris Wilson dropped that information already, so we know that roughly 50% use Steam.

And again, because it's still unanswered, "Do you imply that the retention behaviour between Steam users and standalone/Epic Games/console is sooo different, that you cannot use Steam users as an indicator?".