Randomness is not very random

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Sastre19#1001 wrote:

As always, its randomness is not very random. Why does the game make the player lose more than win, or at least make it 50%? I throw three vaal at three good and finished objects and of the 4 plays that the vaal has, I get in all three items and in a row, the worst option, to change the best modifiers of the three objects, in addition to the option of making several chaos, I change the best ones!!!
This has been happening to me in PoE since I started, crafting is for millionaires, we mortals only have to farm, and if we think of doing something, the game ruins you.
That is my impression, and I do not think I am the only one.
If it is not random, do not say that it is random. Random means that it depends on chance, and chance does not have scripts that modify it to some point. I think that a word must be invented for when natural chance is attempted to be simulated in computers, but of course, it is not random.

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Pathological#1188 wrote:

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Sastre19#1001 wrote:

As always, its randomness is not very random. Why does the game make the player lose more than win, or at least make it 50%? I throw three vaal at three good and finished objects and of the 4 plays that the vaal has, I get in all three items and in a row, the worst option, to change the best modifiers of the three objects, in addition to the option of making several chaos, I change the best ones!!!
This has been happening to me in PoE since I started, crafting is for millionaires, we mortals only have to farm, and if we think of doing something, the game ruins you.
That is my impression, and I do not think I am the only one.
If it is not random, do not say that it is random. Random means that it depends on chance, and chance does not have scripts that modify it to some point. I think that a word must be invented for when natural chance is attempted to be simulated in computers, but of course, it is not random.

The randomness that is simulated by computers is functionally indistinguishable from true randomness for a human, especially over the short term. What you are experience is perception bias, possibly skewed by an extremely small streak of bad luck, but well and truly within the standard notion of expected outcomes.

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Vipermagi#0984 wrote:

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Sastre19#1001 wrote:

I understand what you're saying, but I've had those streaks too many times. That's why I'm writing this post. Why doesn't the opposite, meaning having really good luck, happen with the same frequency?
I also wanted to say that when the game says "random", it's not really random, since many times the weight of the item drops, or modifiers, for example, come into play.

The reason 'lucky streaks' are less frequent is exactly because the chance at any given outcome is not equal. Let's say you have a six-sided die, and want to roll a 2. A success is only one-in-six, and there is a five-in-six chance to fail this roll. Although the odds to roll a 2 is much lower, it is still random. Similarly, although the odds of winning a given prize at the lottery is most certainly not equal between various prizes, it's still random. Equality is not necessary for something to be random.