drop rate of simplex amulet and Helical Ring bases in Heist are insanely poor

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ama wrote:

If you observe the price of Simplex over the past month, its value has increased approximately five times since the first week. It can be assumed that this is due to the fact that the drop rate of Simplex (now) has decreased by five times (assuming that the number of dedicated Heisters remains the same, which I believe is the case because heisting is either loved or hated - there is no middle ground).

Not at all how pricing and markets work...its not a 1-to-1 relationship. Prices go up because:
1) inflation: wayyyyyyyyyyyyy more divines in play now. This alone contributes the most to price inflation, probably damn near 90%. It's also the reason why higher value items fluctuate wildly in price league to league.
2) Demand: more demand = more value, even if supply remains the same
3) Late league fatigue: less items functionally available for sale, makes those remaining more valuable
4) Supply: there is absolutely no indication and I would bet my entire PoE history that rates have NOT been changed since the start of the league (unless they were stated in the patch notes). That being said, supply naturally changes because players QUIT the league rather early. There is a fall off during the first month and a drastic falloff in the second month. So when you again make a wrong assumption that the heisters remain the same....I disagree with that. It's only natural that the heisters have likely gone DOWN since the start of the league.

There are many others. But your post is an overly extreme simplification that provides wildly inaccurate info

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jsuslak313 wrote:

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ama wrote:

If you observe the price of Simplex over the past month, its value has increased approximately five times since the first week. It can be assumed that this is due to the fact that the drop rate of Simplex (now) has decreased by five times (assuming that the number of dedicated Heisters remains the same, which I believe is the case because heisting is either loved or hated - there is no middle ground).

Not at all how pricing and markets work...its not a 1-to-1 relationship. Prices go up because:
1) inflation: wayyyyyyyyyyyyy more divines in play now. This alone contributes the most to price inflation, probably damn near 90%. It's also the reason why higher value items fluctuate wildly in price league to league.
2) Demand: more demand = more value, even if supply remains the same
3) Late league fatigue: less items functionally available for sale, makes those remaining more valuable
4) Supply: there is absolutely no indication and I would bet my entire PoE history that rates have NOT been changed since the start of the league (unless they were stated in the patch notes). That being said, supply naturally changes because players QUIT the league rather early. There is a fall off during the first month and a drastic falloff in the second month. So when you again make a wrong assumption that the heisters remain the same....I disagree with that. It's only natural that the heisters have likely gone DOWN since the start of the league.

There are many others. But your post is an overly extreme simplification that provides wildly inaccurate info

What you're saying absolutely makes sense, but at the same time, I see that you have no clue that the drop rates of certain items in the game changes on a daily basis, which has never been published in any patch notes, ever :) I still think that the number of Simplexes fluctuating in the economy is 90% from the first week of the league.

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ama wrote:

the drop rates of certain items in the game changes on a daily basis

Lmao whut

No, they don't. You doin all right, my guy? This is some serious tinfoil territory.

They have (in the past) said that they have the ability to adjust drop rates if they need to. To derive from that that they do so on a daily basis is reaching far lmao.

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ama wrote:

I see that you have no clue that the drop rates of certain items in the game changes on a daily basis, which has never been published in any patch notes, ever :)

You are right...I have no clue because...it doesn't hapepn. I'll repeat: this absolutely does NOT happen. It MAY have happened a handful of times over the last TEN years of the game, but only in very very specific "bug" circumstances, and every time GGG has owned up to it later, or clarified a previously ambiguous message. Such as during Heist, when they nerfed the drop rate of Regals mid-league because of the exalt showering. But even then, the nerf was almost nothing. They did it again during the first league with Watchstones, when Harbingers were dropping a crazy amount of mirror shards. But the very next patch note told us they nerfed the drop rate.

Beyond those incredibly rare instances, GGG simply does not adjust drop rates willy nilly and invisibly, unless we approach game breaking territory (like those freaking mirror shards....).

You know....I think both the regal and the mirror shard nerfs WERE advertised in the patch notes right when they occurred, thinking back. So those weren't even shadow nerfs either.

While it may be luck, i think there is something that does go on with drop rates sometimes. I have been invitation farming for 90% of my currency since we got the keystone to unleash all at once and increase 100% whatever i forget what it was called then. This league has had the most feast or famine with invitation drops i've ever seen.

Last league i would gain almost double the maps and invitations that i could run. This league i have to buy about 70% of the invitations i run and im running out of maps constantly. With the invitations at 1d each its really not that profitable anymore unless you hit a lot of watchers eyes when you run bosses.

There has to be some seeding thing for drops when you open up your client. I've tried running them scoured, blue, 150% quant with top hat. nothing seems to make a difference. I can do 2-3 rotas and get 3 invitations per rota. or i can do 5 rotas and not get more than 2-3 maps.

There are either knobs or seeding that goes on. You couldn't convince me otherwise.

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Lonnie455Rich wrote:

While it may be luck, i think there is something that does go on with drop rates sometimes. I have been invitation farming for 90% of my currency since we got the keystone to unleash all at once and increase 100% whatever i forget what it was called then. This league has had the most feast or famine with invitation drops i've ever seen.

Last league i would gain almost double the maps and invitations that i could run. This league i have to buy about 70% of the invitations i run and im running out of maps constantly. With the invitations at 1d each its really not that profitable anymore unless you hit a lot of watchers eyes when you run bosses.

There has to be some seeding thing for drops when you open up your client. I've tried running them scoured, blue, 150% quant with top hat. nothing seems to make a difference. I can do 2-3 rotas and get 3 invitations per rota. or i can do 5 rotas and not get more than 2-3 maps.

There are either knobs or seeding that goes on. You couldn't convince me otherwise.

Well and I just had a run of 10 Elder guardian cycles where I sustained boss invitations.. it's all RNG and can swing either way

Feast or famine. There is no consistency. like ive said ive ran rotas where i got 3 invitations in the 4 maps and ran 4-5 rotas in a row with only 1-2 maps, not invitations maps. like i got 1-2 maps from 4-5 rotas.

The problem with trying to comment on probability and nerfs and things is that...the BASE rate of drop is so low that its almost impossible for a player to actually FEEL consistency.

When the chance of things is 1% or even 5%, there will be no consistency felt until you've run THOUSANDS of data points. People try to feel it in 10s or even 100s and that just simply doesn't cut it. The variability is far too high.

And then there's also the classic misrepresentation of the "100% more likely" things that can be found on the atlas tree. Taking that node is absolutely worth it....but when the base rate is 1% or possibly even LESS than 1% the change it offers is NOT felt in a small (hundreds) amount of maps.

Its all just gambler's fallacy, plain and simple. It's easy to blame an unseen force (GGG) when you hit a dry spell, but thats just what probability and rng is. The lower the chance, the more likely you swing HEAVILY from one side to the other.


Just a really quick anecdote: I play a tower defense game on my phone. There is a stat for "free attack upgrades" that I have currently at 5% per wave. It takes me about 10 minutes to go through 100 waves, and I regularly go through thousands in the same run, so it is very easy to see trends. It is pretty regular that I might go one run with 2 free upgrades in the first 100, or I've gotten as many as 20 in the first 100. But once I get to the 2000ish range, it is almost ALWAYS the same # total: just about 5% or very close to 5%.

PoE takes a heck of a lot longer than 10 minutes to run 100 maps, and its not so easy to keep accurate tally of things. So the data you personally receive is just plain inadequate, unless you are like some of those dataminers with spreadsheets and thousands upon thousands of trials.

Mathematically, the problem we face as players is "certainty" or the reliability of our own experience. There is a mathematical equation for that, which I won't dive into here.

But for simplicity's sake: a coin flip (50/50 odds)
100 coin flips will yield only a 68% certainty that your "odds" or experiences were correct....which is hardly reliable data.

2500 coin flips would be needed to get that to 99% certainty.

Anything in between these two, and closer to the 100 mark will yield some wildly oscillating data.


I'm fairly sure that if the initial odds are LOWER, than the amount of trials overall (flips) is considerably lower, but its still way higher than people think it is for any amount of accuracy.