Corona virus

You have to take into consideration how dense the population is and how rural some countries are.

Most cities in Russia belong to rather rural regions. There are only 4 areas you would consider as metropolitan area.

The worst affected regions in several countries are metropolitan areas.

Not every big city is automatically affected.


EG you will have couple of hundred cases at worst in states like Alaska/Wyoming.

Every highly populated state on the east and west coast on the other hand is in grave danger.


When it comes to countries lying about numbers expect China(they lie about 1989), Japan(Olympic Games) and Turkey(Erdogan)

Other countries lack doctors like Poland, are pretty poor and so on they cannot deliver accurate numbers.

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And it's going to last months.

Only if there aren't multiple waves. The virus could mutate to the better or worse and lockdowns lifted too early.

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The Dow Jones having worst month since 1931.

The US economy will collapse.

You are wrong, Hilbert. My isolation will last months because I'm not going back out there until there's a known, working vaccine. That is my choice as a high-risk person who doesn't trust other people not to be inconsiderate jerks. Given the recent evidence, I feel my mistrust is well-placed.

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Boem wrote:

But that isn't a mortality due to the virus directly, but due to lack of care.

https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate

Pretty much every health care worker would call what you said, rather charitably, 'splitting hairs'.

Then again, I doubt any health care worker would take you seriously anyway. You have the luxury of being a computer chair critic, which renders your opinion on the definition of the Case Fatality Rate pretty much worthless. They do not have that luxury, which renders their opinion on the CFR far more valuable. They have something to lose.

If someone dies with Covid-19 and otherwise wouldn't have died, then they died from Covid-19, effectively. Whether they received care or not. Those straws you're grasping at? Stop.

And yes, this is your 1-monthly direct quote-and-response from me. I hope you appreciate it.

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If it were possible to wave a magic wand and make all Americans freeze in place for 14 days while sitting six feet apart, epidemiologists say, the whole epidemic would sputter to a halt.

The virus would die out on every contaminated surface and, because almost everyone shows symptoms within two weeks, it would be evident who was infected. If we had enough tests for every American, even the completely asymptomatic cases could be found and isolated.

The crisis would be over.

Of course the reality deniers won't read this, but I'm posting it anyway because it's excellent: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/health/coronavirus-restrictions-us.html

This part is a good way to gauge where the US will be if they locked down right now:

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In contrast to the halting steps taken here, China shut down Wuhan — the epicenter of the nation’s outbreak — and restricted movement in much of the country on Jan. 23, when the country had a mere 500 cases and 17 deaths.

That's a really magic wand though. The machine must keep running; deliveries made; doctors researching; and so on. But it's interesting because it shows just how drastic a move would be requires to kill the thing off and even then it would take TWO WEEKS at the very least.

Two weeks in a miraculous situation. And we are far, far from that miraculous situation.

Yeah, and Wuhan took 2 months of that shutdown to get it under control. They also built huge clinics and centres in a matter of days, smartly keeping Covid-19 patients well away from normal hospitals where possible. Again, not something you'll see in so-called first world countries.

In fact, I think one of the huge lingering effects of Covid-19 will be an upending of the long-held beliefs of what makes a country 'first world' and what makes a country 'third world', or as we say now, 'developed' vs 'developing'. The reality checks are going to be, well, real.

It's amazing to know that a cure already exists though, right?

In the end it may prove to be the great equalizer.

Not sure we can really call it a cure. More like an expulsion. A starvation. Throwing it out the airlock into a void that cannot sustain it. A cure, after all, implies the direct application of something to counteract its presence. This would be more removing something. Everything.

But practically? Sure, we could call that a cure, the same way you could call burning someone's house while they're not home an encouragement for domestic relocation.

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Foreverhappychan wrote:

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Boem wrote:

But that isn't a mortality due to the virus directly, but due to lack of care.

https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate

Pretty much every health care worker would call what you said, rather charitably, 'splitting hairs'.

Then again, I doubt any health care worker would take you seriously anyway. You have the luxury of being a computer chair critic, which renders your opinion on the definition of the Case Fatality Rate pretty much worthless. They do not have that luxury, which renders their opinion on the CFR far more valuable. They have something to lose.

If someone dies with Covid-19 and otherwise wouldn't have died, then they died from Covid-19, effectively. Whether they received care or not. Those straws you're grasping at? Stop.

And yes, this is your 1-monthly direct quote-and-response from me. I hope you appreciate it.

I'm not splitting hairs, it's the difference between social issolation and lock down with a 3% tops mortality rate and an italy scenario where the current mortality rate is at 8% last i checked.

In case you haven't noticed, all of my arguments strengthen your possition.

Can healthy people survive? Yes they can if there is sufficient icu and health-care capability present.
Is this a feasable scenario without a lockdown event? Pretty much, nope.

Im simply also taking into account the economical impact long term which as far as i can tell you seem to ignore completely in favor of protecting yourself. Which in itself is fair game considering your condition, but that doesn't mean it isn't a topic being debated and discussed in the world right now.

As for the monthly quote thing, similar to impeacher his comments that amount to smelling your farts and painting bulls-eyes on people he disagree's with, i don't particularly care.
You haven't posted anything that contradicts me, so it still remains a "nope".

Considering current favored strategies only country's that are late to the party are going to exceed the 3.4% mortality rate and have healthy people at risk of corona.
Not disputing the fact that healthy people who survive the virus can have diminished long capacity etc which should also be taken into account as a serious effect.

In case of america and australia where you recide, yes healthy people are very much at risk due to a lack of response from the goverment.
Not by the virus, but by the lack of health-care preperations to handle the influx putting people at risk who under normal conditions could be helped.

The "splitting hairs" your talking about is actually one of your strongest arguments to push the healthy people to act in your favor.
Because the less they react to the situation the higher their mortality rate becomes.

Your welcome.

Peace,

-Boem-

Ah, yes, the old 'we're actually allies, you just can't see it' move. Subtle as a brick, and about as palatable. Works for me, if it settles you down a bit.