Watch the ExileCon Livestream and Win Microtransactions with Twitch Drops!

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Every five minutes of view time you'll have a 1.5% chance to receive one of the prizes which means it would take an average of 5.5 hours of view time to receive a Twitch Drop reward

Hey GGG, thought I'd take a moment to point out this is not correct.

For 5.5hrs of viewing, with 5min roll intervals, this is (5.5*60)/5 = 66 rolls.
The statement quoted above implies (66*1.5 is 99%) that your odds increase by 1.5% every roll, which is not correct. Each roll is independent of the outcome of the previous roll.

The odds to not receive a prize on a roll is 98.5%. The likelihood of not winning a roll twice is .985*.985 = 97.0225%. You'll notice it's not the 3% implied by the quote above.

The required amount of rolls to "on average" receive a prize is when:
0.985^x < 0.5 (chance to not win a prize is less than 50%).
x needs to be greater than 46 for someone to "on average" receive a prize.
That is, the average person will receive a prize after (46*5/60) 3hrs and 50mins of viewing time.

For 66 rolls (5.5hrs of view time) there is a 1-0.985^66 = 63.12% chance to receive a prize.

Odds are actually better than the statement, don't nerf (please).
WARNING: Do not give GGG money. Never forgive the content creator priority uncovered during 3.14 Ultimatum league.
GGG got caught giving content creators in game advantages, only when caught would they tell the player base they were doing this. This will continue, but more slyly.
Do I need to subscribe to tv/pathofexile channel to get a drop?
Nice!
These stats are worse than a chase item :p

As only 15% of the drops are interesting (who want another hard to see footstep coloration or completly invisible weapon light?), it means that you have only 0.00225 chance of looting every five minutes.

To average your chance to 1 (which means you have 50% chance to get it at this point), you need to watch it... 37 hours. Good luck with that!

When comparing with what GGG main competitor (WarFrame) did, it's a joke (they litteraly offered 100$ of Pay To Win stuff as long as you watched 15 minutes or so). I think that's a good thing! But you will have a lot less viewers obviously :D
Last edited by bejarid#1734 on Nov 14, 2019, 4:46:35 AM
Please please please please give us 1 free stash tab after 4 hours of watching with 100% chance.
i'm so fucking hyped GET ME IN BOYZ
Ahh, it's over... My sun... it's setting... It's dark, so dark...
There was really no reason to make this any more exciting. Just hearing about 3.9 is enough to get people watching.
Need a new signature, cuz name change. I dunno though. I guess this seems fine. Yeah, this is good.
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Relarious wrote:
"Twitch Prime Drops: There was an issue enabling Twitch Prime Drops for your account. Please try relinking your twitch account or contact support@grindinggear.com"


I had the same issue, all i had to do was create another poe account and link with twitch, and then go back to the first account and relink it again.
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twomilho wrote:
"
Relarious wrote:
"Twitch Prime Drops: There was an issue enabling Twitch Prime Drops for your account. Please try relinking your twitch account or contact support@grindinggear.com"


I had the same issue, all i had to do was create another poe account and link with twitch, and then go back to the first account and relink it again.


Ty, its work
pog

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