Watch Path of Exile live and win a Helmet Skin with Twitch Drops!

Further to my simulation post... I added code to find the maximum number of rolls required to win for 10,000 people, and ran this 10,000-person simulation a few times. It averaged at ~1000 rolls, which is ~83.3 hours or ~3.5 days.

Three simulations with 100,000 people gave an average maximum number of rolls of ~1250, which is ~105 hours or ~4.33 days.

Two simulations with 1,000,000 people gave a maximum number rolls of 1612 and 1572.

I need to think about why the maximum number of rolls increases when more people are included. The more people there are rolling, the greater the chance of finding a really "unlucky" person?

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SabreWolfy wrote:

I need to think about why the maximum number of rolls increases when more people are included. The more people there are rolling, the greater the chance of finding a really "unlucky" person?

Yes, because it's entirely possible to never get a drop no matter how many times you roll. An infinity of people will never get a drop each.

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havz0r wrote:

Yes, because it's entirely possible to never get a drop no matter how many times you roll. An infinity of people will never get a drop each.

In the simulations of 1,000,000 people, everyone eventually got a drop. Some just required more than 1500 rolls :)

Got it tonight after about 60 hours of watching streams.

I'm glad i'm done with this :)

3 days still no hat SeemsGucci

I just got an uncommon Ghostflame Helmett Skin, after around 15 hours of stream "watching".
Thx GGG ! :D

Be patient, it continues until December 15.

22 Helmets available. Own only 3 of them.
Just my luck, I win one of the 3 I already own ... *Sigh*
It's such a shame I'm not able to gift it to someone.

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SabreWolfy wrote:

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havz0r wrote:

Yes, because it's entirely possible to never get a drop no matter how many times you roll. An infinity of people will never get a drop each.

In the simulations of 1,000,000 people, everyone eventually got a drop. Some just required more than 1500 rolls :)

In theory there is still a place in statistics for people who will never see a drop though. All you gotta do is increase "n", the amount of participants in this case. If you draw the curve you will see that it is never going to touch the axis.

Had a $50 gift card sitting on my desk late last night. I got bored and was about to buy an mtx from GGG just for giggles. Then I remembered how I'm getting jerked around on this helmet promotion and it no longer felt like it was the fair thing to do. Sad!

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Raybabbitt wrote:

In theory there is still a place in statistics for people who will never see a drop though. All you gotta do is increase "n", the amount of participants in this case. If you draw the curve you will see that it is never going to touch the axis.

For 1 million people in my simulation, everyone got a hat. The largest number of rolls was around 1600, which would be about 133 hours or 5.5 days. The promotion runs for a few weeks, so everyone should get one :)