Biggest Lottery in POE PART 2 --> ALT + REGAL 2 MODS --> WIN 8x Mirror of Kalandra!!

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WeaponMeister wrote:

If Merciless has a 0.05% chance of spawning and so does dictator's then it should be 2000 x
2000 = 4000000alts. Current ratio of alts : ex is around 360:1ex so 11111ex. 2000 regals 25:1ex 80ex = 11191ex total. Mirrors are around 260ex so it will cost around 43mirrors to craft one.

I dont get this.

If i assume you need 2000 alts x 2000 regals :

2000 regals = 80ex = 28800 alts ; alt/ex 360/1 ; mirror/ex 1/260

--> 2000alts x 28800 alts = 57 600 000 alts = 16k ex = 615 mirror

b

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h4llowerner wrote:

[

I dont get this.

If i assume you need 2000 alts x 2000 regals :

2000 regals = 80ex = 28800 alts ; alt/ex 360/1 ; mirror/ex 1/260

--> 2000alts x 28800 alts = 57 600 000 alts = 16k ex = 615 mirror

b

thats def wrong!


both mods have a chance of 0.05% to roll

so it takes u avg 2000 alts to roll 1 mod than i takes u avg 2000 regal to hit the other mod.

this is total avg 2000*2000 Alts + 2000 Regal

What is the math behind it? I'm just trying to understand.

You said in your initial post we should alt the first mod and regal the 2nd.

This leads to the conclusion : 0.05% roll probability = 2000 alts needed for the first roll.

THEN you roll the 2nd mod with another 0.05% chance but this time with a regal.

So its 0.05%_1stmod (alts) x 0.055_2ndmod (regals) : 2000 alts x 2000 regals.

What is it what I'm not getting here? O_o

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h4llowerner wrote:

What is the math behind it? I'm just trying to understand.

You said in your initial post we should alt the first mod and regal the 2nd.

This leads to the conclusion : 0.05% roll probability = 2000 alts needed for the first roll.

THEN you roll the 2nd mod with another 0.05% chance but this time with a regal.

So its 0.05%_1stmod (alts) x 0.055_2ndmod (regals) : 2000 alts x 2000 regals.

What is it what I'm not getting here? O_o

ok how do i explain this with my poor english....let me try again....


To roll the first mod ull need avg 2000 alts (100/0.05 = 2000). To roll the 2nd mod ull need avg 2000 Regal (100/0.05 = 2000).

But for EVERY regal u use u have to use on avg 2000 alts. Thats why the total costs on average are 2000 x 2000 alts + 2000 regal.

thats 4.000.000 Alts, wich are at the rate of 360:1ex --> 11.111ex
2.000 Regal are at the rate of 30:1ex --> 67ex

So total avg Costs are 11.178ex or with Mirror at 1:250ex ---> 45 Mirrors



i hope its clear now.


If we get 1000 ppl to spend 4000 alts we on avg should get this done!

Also consider the Mirror price gone down from 300ex per Mirror to 250ex per Mirror bcz there obv will be no bases when i get that base in my hands the Mirror price should go up again not sure by how much but i assume them getting to 280-300ex. So your payout is actually even higher!!

it's just pure probability, it's not like you need that exact amount to get the mods anyway, pray to RNGSUS boiz

*Free bump :)

up

up

up

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pNR wrote:

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h4llowerner wrote:

What is the math behind it? I'm just trying to understand.

You said in your initial post we should alt the first mod and regal the 2nd.

This leads to the conclusion : 0.05% roll probability = 2000 alts needed for the first roll.

THEN you roll the 2nd mod with another 0.05% chance but this time with a regal.

So its 0.05%_1stmod (alts) x 0.055_2ndmod (regals) : 2000 alts x 2000 regals.

What is it what I'm not getting here? O_o

ok how do i explain this with my poor english....let me try again....


To roll the first mod ull need avg 2000 alts (100/0.05 = 2000). To roll the 2nd mod ull need avg 2000 Regal (100/0.05 = 2000).

But for EVERY regal u use u have to use on avg 2000 alts. Thats why the total costs on average are 2000 x 2000 alts + 2000 regal.

thats 4.000.000 Alts, wich are at the rate of 360:1ex --> 11.111ex
2.000 Regal are at the rate of 30:1ex --> 67ex

So total avg Costs are 11.178ex or with Mirror at 1:250ex ---> 45 Mirrors

You're both wrong! Please correct my thinking/math if in fact I am wrong xD

Merciless - .05% chance of rolling = 1/2000 alts on average
Dictator - .05% chance of rolling = 1/2000 alts on average

Chance of rolling EITHER merciless or dictator as first mod = (.05 + .05)% = .1% = 1/1000 alts on average

Chance of rolling the remaining mod second = .05376344% = 1/1860 regals on average


On average, you will have to roll EITHER merciless or dictator with alt 1,860 times TOTAL before a regal hits the remaining mod second.

In other words, on average, it will cost 1,000 * 1,860 = 1,860,000 alts and 1,860 regals to get the 2T1 base Skalpo wants.

Using Skalpo's rates 360 alts:1 ex and 30 regals:1 ex average cost of this project should be: 5167 ex (for alts) + 62 ex (for regals) = 5229 ex (~21 mirrors)

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KiPad wrote:

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pNR wrote:

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h4llowerner wrote:

What is the math behind it? I'm just trying to understand.

You said in your initial post we should alt the first mod and regal the 2nd.

This leads to the conclusion : 0.05% roll probability = 2000 alts needed for the first roll.

THEN you roll the 2nd mod with another 0.05% chance but this time with a regal.

So its 0.05%_1stmod (alts) x 0.055_2ndmod (regals) : 2000 alts x 2000 regals.

What is it what I'm not getting here? O_o

ok how do i explain this with my poor english....let me try again....


To roll the first mod ull need avg 2000 alts (100/0.05 = 2000). To roll the 2nd mod ull need avg 2000 Regal (100/0.05 = 2000).

But for EVERY regal u use u have to use on avg 2000 alts. Thats why the total costs on average are 2000 x 2000 alts + 2000 regal.

thats 4.000.000 Alts, wich are at the rate of 360:1ex --> 11.111ex
2.000 Regal are at the rate of 30:1ex --> 67ex

So total avg Costs are 11.178ex or with Mirror at 1:250ex ---> 45 Mirrors

You're both wrong! Please correct my thinking/math if in fact I am wrong xD

Merciless - .05% chance of rolling = 1/2000 alts on average
Dictator - .05% chance of rolling = 1/2000 alts on average

Chance of rolling EITHER merciless or dictator as first mod = (.05 + .05)% = .1% = 1/1000 alts on average

Chance of rolling the remaining mod second = .05376344% = 1/1860 regals on average

Spoiler

It's not .05% because you have to account for the first mod hit no longer being in the mod pool

On average, you will have to roll EITHER merciless or dictator with alt 1,860 times TOTAL before a regal hits the remaining mod second.

In other words, on average, it will cost 1,000 * 1,860 = 1,860,000 alts and 1,860 regals to get the 2T1 base Skalpo wants.

Using Skalpo's rates 360 alts:1 ex and 30 regals:1 ex average cost of this project should be: 5167 ex (for alts) + 62 ex (for regals) = 5229 ex (~21 mirrors)

i still think my math is correct but well....if yours is the odds for ppl who wanna try are even A LOT BETTER !!!!