[outdated] Caustic Arrow Solo Map MFer (20/300+)

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Serleth wrote:

There are only two reasons imho to avoid 6Ling something yourself (typically):

* Time available
* Need to be "first" to something, like Uber farming.

Example and some stats:

I'm currently working on 6Ling a Pledge of Hands for my next build. Lowest price as of yesterday was 7.5ex, with fuses at 160:1ex, that places the value of the item in fuse-equivalent at 1200 fusings. Which just so happens to be roughly the *cough* "average expectation" to 6L an item.

I've 6L'd over 70 items now in PoE.

2/70 - 2300 and 2800 fusings
1/70 - 1350 fusings
67/70 - 1100 fusings or less

Average 6L cost - 850-900 fusings.

As mentioned, if you don't have the time (or drive) available to re-farm fusings in the event of a nightmare 6L (less than 5% of the time), that's completely understandable.

However, presuming you do have the time (and drive) available, you should do a cross-comparison of the cost of the item you want in terms of its 6L market value with its fuse-equivalence price, and if the value of the item is greater than or equal to 1250 fusings, you should do it yourself.

On average, over time, you will save currency.

I used to keep a list of how many fusings I've spent on 6Ling items, but that died somewhere last year, so we'll just go with the above information and do a comparison to the cost of a Vorici 6L AND the cost of an item presuming it is valued at 1300 fuse equivalent.

For the sake of this comparison we will also be using a Standard fusing ratio of 115:1ex

1500/115 = 13ex (Vorici)
1300/115 = 11.3ex (guesstimated average 6L item cost on the market, in Standard, for common uniques or non-GG rare items).

Since the above average 6L value of 850-900 includes the two nightmare 6Ls, we will use the lower end of the average value to calculate the rest of the 6Ls cost.

2300 + 2800 + 1350 + (850 * 67) = 63,400 fusings = 551.3ex

Versus

70 6Ls * 11.3ex (average cost of straight up buying 6Ls) = 791ex
70 6Ls * 13ex (Vorici method) = 910ex

Difference: 239.7ex savings (358.7ex versus Vorici)

This is conservative, given that approximately 9 of my 6Ls have occured in 200 fusings or less, and an additional 10 or so have occurred in 600 fusings or less, but you get the point.

By 6Ling items myself, over time, I've saved enough currency to buy 8.5 pairs of Skyforth boots (currently priced at 28ex in Standard).

Yes, you will occasionally lose currency, but over enough 6L attempts you will beat the odds. Significantly.

For the record, this isn't just my own confirmation bias here. Every time this topic comes up on reddit, there's a wealth of people who go "Oh, I tried 6Ling an item. Once. And I spent 3,000 fusings. So never again."

And then there's a minimum five other people that chime in saying their experience roughly matches mine: 800-950 fusings average per 6L, with a minimum 40 6Ls attempted.

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Chronodroid wrote:

Oh, you still Flameblast?=)

Are you seeing the original prolif (without gem, but Elementalist Ascendancy) to come back any time? I miss those times ^^

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Then you are a really lucky boy. I used till now over 4000 fuse and NEVER 6l a item. I tried it for the archivment, but til now no luck.

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And then you must 6 l many many more items to come to your 600 - 700 fuses per item.

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hankinsohl wrote:

RE 6-linking yourself or not

Spoiler

Well, the main reasons not to 6-link on your own are:

1) there is a less expensive alternative, or

2) you are willing to pay a premium for a guaranteed 6-link

Point 1 is obvious and bears no further discussion.

Point 2 is interesting though.

If you are only going to 6-link one item in a league then point 2 may well apply to you. You may be more than willing to pay a bit more for that one 6-link than to gamble on doing it yourself. You may especially be in this situation if you don't intend to play the game intensely.

Point 2 is less likely to apply to you if you're going to be 6-linking multiple items and/or are going to be playing POE a lot which means that you can tolerate the occasional bad outcome where fusing is much more expensive than average.

Point 2 may also not apply, if you like to gamble. If you like the excitement of possibly 6-linking in just a few fuse, you may want to 6-link on your own.

This is a fascinating mathematical topic actually - Vorici is a form of insurance. Do you want to purchase insurance or not? What is a fair price for the insurance? What about a mixed strategy - where you try 6-linking on your own up to a certain cost and then if not successful, use Vorici for a guaranteed result? When is the mixed strategy optimal? How many fuse should you spend before using Vorici? Etc.

The distribution of fusing costs is open-ended. That is, there is no upper bound to how many fuse it might take. The average cost of fusing is taken over the entire distribution, including outcomes that take many, many, many fuses. So, when computing your own averages, include bad outcomes in order to obtain an accurate estimate of your own fusing costs.

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Serleth wrote:

Aaaaaaaaand grats (and jealous) of your 21/20.

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Serleth wrote:

Spoiler

I AM A BAD PERSON.

I WILL NOT ROLL THAT BUILD BECAUSE HE CANNOT TURN OFF HIS CAPS LOCK.

AND APPARENTLY DOESN'T KNOW WHERE THE PRINT-SCREEN BUTTON IS.

Kidding.

Sort of.