One Month Flashback Leagues

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cherryfire89 wrote:

Note: I have not taken into account, there might be already people among the 1,000 people who already have a beta key, if you want to get a more accurate probability multiply the probability 1.5 / 100 by the ratio 1000 / (number of people who already have the key), remake the calculation and you will have something more realistic and more high (that is also why I say minimum).

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silumit wrote:

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cherryfire89 wrote:

I estimated how many chances there are to get a key if it is ranked 1000th least every day:
Let p be a probability of the universe as:
1.5% Minimum win one key per day over 30 days.

Or the following events:

A: I win a key
Bi: I do not win the key th day (Bib its opposite)

(U = union, n = intersection)

p (A) = p ((B1bnB2nB3n ... NB30) u (B1nB2bnB3n ... NB30) u ... u (B1nB2n...nB30b))
= P (B1bnB2nB3n ... NB30) + p (B1nB2bnB3n ... NB30) + ... + p (B1nB2n...nB30b)
(Note: events incompatible meeting their equals their sums)
* P = 30 (B1bnB2n...NB30)
(Note: the events are independent their intersections is equal to their products
Note 2: the same probability events so * 30 (each scenario is equally likely to happen))
= 30 * 1.5 / 100 * (98.5 / 100) ^ 29
= 29%

Result: If you rank 1000th every day of the league, you have at least 29% chance to obtain a beta key.

Isn't it more simple: chance to NOT get a key in any of 30 days is 0.985^30=0.635, therefore chance to get a key is 1-0.635 = 36.5% ?

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slably wrote:

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cherryfire89 wrote:

Note: I have not taken into account, there might be already people among the 1,000 people who already have a beta key, if you want to get a more accurate probability multiply the probability 1.5 / 100 by the ratio 1000 / (number of people who already have the key), remake the calculation and you will have something more realistic and more high (that is also why I say minimum).

The number of people who already have the key has no bearing on the probability, as Chris stated that "the top 1000 players in the event (by experience) who do not already have Closed Beta Access will go into a pool"...meaning the chances of winning, every day, will ALWAYS be 15/1000.

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cherryfire89 wrote:

the proba do not work like that, they have to do things well or you will say silliness

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Jaille wrote:

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cherryfire89 wrote:

the proba do not work like that, they have to do things well or you will say silliness

Je sais pas mec je suis arrivé à 36.45% aussi

Odds to not get a key everyday: 985/1000
So, the odds of not getting a key after 30 consecutive days: 985^30/1000^30 = 63,5458%
Odds of getting a key are then 1 - 63.5458% = 36.4542%