The ultimate sollution to RNG: progressive crafting!

What is so frustrating about RNG?

That you never know what result to expect?
That it brings too much (bad)luck to the game?
That you spend an awfull lot of time throwing 1000 fuses on an item?

No. I believe those are the minor drawbacks, what is really irritating about RNG, is that you can indeed throw 1000 fuses on an item and in the end you're no step further from the beginning. Some people wasted 2000 fuses without result. That's over 40 exalts!!

This huge problem of meaningless waste can very simply be overcome. Hereunder are the figures for jewelling an item that can have up to 6 sockets:

1 socket: 32.68%
2 sockets: 29.41%
3 sockets: 26.14%
4 sockets: 9.80%
5 sockets: 1.63%
6 sockets: 0.33%

Now, GGG should simply implement a new property in crafting, that is called progressive crafting. It means every time you throw a jewellers orb on this item, the socket chances slightly augment for the next time another jeweller orb is thrown on it.

E.g.: each use of a jeweller orb augments all multiple socket chances with 0.01%.

=> If you have thrown 100 jewellers on this item, the chances for the next jeweller orb will be:

1 socket: 27.68%
2 sockets: 30.41%
3 sockets: 27.14%
4 sockets: 10.80%
5 sockets: 2.63%
6 sockets: 1.33%

What will this new system change:

1) Not that much, as the chances will remain pretty small for the better results. RNG will still remain to be RNG, although it's slightly more favourable then before.

2) Wasting jewellers or fuses on your items without good results is not a complete waste anymore! Even if you lost 1000 fuses without any good result, the item will be more and more likely to finally give better results (fuse chances ofcourse augment less fast then jewellers).

=> So crafting unsuccesfully becomes an investment, and instead of frustrating people wasting loads of currency without any result, they will feel they come closer and closer to what they want each time.

A simple and small change, but psychologically crafting will feel so much less a waste of time and currency, as apart from the pure RNG that remains, you're at least progressing with every orb wasted.

***EDIT***EDIT***EDIT***EDIT***EDIT***

Look at it this way, the current system is analogue to this:

1000 people play a lottery. The chance to win is 10%.

Turn 1: 100 people win, 900 continue
Turn 2: 90 people win, 810 continue
Turn 3: 81 people win, 729 continue
Turn 4: 73 people win, 656 continue
Turn 5: 66 people win, 590 continue
Turn 6: 59 people win, 531 continue
Turn 7: 53 people win, 478 continue
Turn 8: 48 people win, 430 continue
Turn 9: 43 people win, 387 continue
Turn 10: 39 people win, 348 continue
Turn 11: 35 people win, 313 continue
Turn 12: 31 people win, 282 continue
Turn 13: 28 people win, 254 continue
Turn 14: 25 people win, 229 continue
Turn 15: 23 people win, 206 continue

There is no end to this line. Fewer and fewer people will win, but always some with extremely bad luck will have to buy a new lottery ticket.


What I suggest is the following:

Turn 1: 9.3% win chance => 93 people win, 907 continue
Turn 2: 9.4% win chance => 85 people win, 822 continue
Turn 3: 9.5% win chance => 78 people win, 744 continue
Turn 4: 9.6% win chance => 71 people win, 673 continue
Turn 5: 9.7% win chance => 65 people win, 608 continue
Turn 6: 9.8% win chance => 60 people win, 548 continue
Turn 7: 9.9% win chance => 54 people win, 494 continue
Turn 8: 10.0% win chance => 49 people win, 445 continue
Turn 9: 10.1% win chance => 45 people win, 400 continue
Turn 10: 10.2% win chance => 41 people win, 359 continue
Turn 11: 10.3% win chance => 37 people win, 322 continue
Turn 12: 10.4% win chance => 33 people win, 289 continue
Turn 13: 10.5% win chance => 30 people win, 259 continue
Turn 14: 10.6% win chance => 27 people win, 232 continue
Turn 15: 10.7% win chance => 25 people win, 207 continue

Conclusions:

1) System A and system B both have the same number of "losers" after 15 attempts.

2) System A has more "very lucky" winners who already succeed after 1 or 2 times.

3) System A has no end. Theoretically, there is a (minimal) possibility you still don't succeed after 100 times even with a high 10% win chance.

4) System B is finite: eventually everybody wins, some with much more patience and investment then others though.

5) When facing a lot of bad luck, in system A you're no step further after 15 attempts, or even after 50. In system B you have progressed at least towards your goal, as the chance to win is getting higher and higher.

6) Overall, system A and B will not cause much difference for most people (in both systems about 80% of the people have a win within 15 attempts). System A will have more extremely lucky winners and will continue to have extremely unlucky losers. System B flattens the extremes and give you a feeling of progression when facing a lot of bad luck.

=> For jeweling and fusing, things are much more complicated then this because of 6 possible results and different chances, but the idea is exacly the same: progressive crafting flattens the extremes and comforts you when throwing currency on an item with the thought that you're one step closer to your goal each time, whereas the current system just tells you: "you've just wasted 500 fusings for nothing, you're exacly where you were before wasting them."

Progressive crafting comforts for bad luck and encourages crafting, without changing RNG for the majority of players by a lot.

I would bet most people's problem with rng in crafting is that they generally expect too much and are not relying enough on defensive nodes like ele resists etc to plug the gaps. It's that comparing your character to the BoTW complex. All you really need is a 4L and that's easy enough to get. If you like a character and want a 5L with it and you dedicate some time to getting a piece of endgame gear 5 linked you generally can without too much trouble.

I support this idea.

What happens to the "player-experience" when he is 600 jewelers deep on an item and then finds an upgrade.

Legit question btw, i am all in favor for idea's like this, but the thing i mentioned creates another "player-experience struggle".

Does he continue to craft his "now worse armor with better ods" or does he start again from scratch?

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Boem wrote:

What happens to the "player-experience" when he is 600 jewelers deep on an item and then finds an upgrade.

Legit question btw, i am all in favor for idea's like this, but the thing i mentioned creates another "player-experience struggle".

Does he continue to craft his "now worse armor with better ods" or does he start again from scratch?

Well seeing how you start crafting by first jewing your item, I don't see how this situation can even happen. You don't craft the stats first.

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Well seeing how you start crafting by first jewing your item, I don't see how this situation can even happen. You don't craft the stats first.

The main point being that i posed "what if you FIND and upgrade", this is important, because chaos re-rolling an item, or crafting from the basis up will only yield X guaranteed result.

However finding a chest with 6 stats that has 4 top tier desired rolls, 1 mediocre roll and 1 useless mod, does indeed happen. And might far surpass the armor you are slowly crafting.

Thus my question is legit i think?

"

Boem wrote:

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Well seeing how you start crafting by first jewing your item, I don't see how this situation can even happen. You don't craft the stats first.

The main point being that i posed "what if you FIND and upgrade", this is important, because chaos re-rolling an item, or crafting from the basis up will only yield X guaranteed result.

However finding a chest with 6 stats that has 4 top tier desired rolls, 1 mediocre roll and 1 useless mod, does indeed happen. And might far surpass the armor you are slowly crafting.

Thus my question is legit i think?

Well that happens even now, having a nice progressive crafting mechanic isn't going to make that any different. If anything, you continue jewing/fusing that first item since it already has orbs stacked on it, and you sell it off for a consolation profit.

And besides, assuming you're going for 6S and 6L, you're most likely looking for those 4 perfect tier 1 rolls, but I certainly have never rolled such an item before. It's extremely rare. Even for 2 desired rolls, it's still cheaper usually by sticking to the first crafting item.

This looks like an idea but there's an issue, what if you sell that item or something? Will the count stay? Will people scam this way? Will it affect the economy in a bad way?

Personally I would say yes to your idea. Mindlessly throwing orbs on an item and never seeing a good result gets kinda frustating.

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hi, i buy it but there is a technical problem:
the craft data would be stored somewhere, in item maybe, well it's good idea but adding such feature is a deep coding into the game core - maybe - i means it may cost soo much ressources to ggg to do it... On the other hand it would be awesome, RNG; but not that much RNG ;)

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This looks like an idea but there's an issue, what if you sell that item or something? Will the count stay? Will people scam this way? Will it affect the economy in a bad way?

An item already has to keep track of his stats, itemlevel, base item,... and the stats can be changed any moment, which has to be remembered by the item.

I think if an item has to keep count of the number of jewellers and fusings thrown on it, it's not such a big addition to its other properties.

There should be an option to be able to see how many jewellers and fusings were already thrown on an item, especially with trading in mind. A 1500 fuse shavronne's will cost more then a 10 fuse shavronne's, even if both are only 4-linked. Another way to recuperate more currency when faced with bad luck!

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What happens to the "player-experience" when he is 600 jewelers deep on an item and then finds an upgrade.

The fact that you are offered a choice. Do I value 6-linking more or do I value the better stats more? The more choices and dilemma's, the better I think. We don't want mindless non-choices like in Diablo 3. GGG seems to love ambiguity, reflected e.g. by negative properties on many uniques, which is just great!

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hi, i buy it [...] On the other hand it would be awesome, RNG; but not that much RNG ;)

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I support this idea.

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Well that happens even now, having a nice progressive crafting mechanic isn't going to make that any different. If anything, you continue jewing/fusing that first item since it already has orbs stacked on it, and you sell it off for a consolation profit.

"

Personally I would say yes to your idea. Mindlessly throwing orbs on an item and never seeing a good result gets kinda frustating.

Thanks for the support! Let's keep this thread alive to get some response from GGG and see how they feel about progressive crafting.