The secrets/mysteries of RNG cloud and Why you should not ever stop playing after a godly drop. Ep3

I dunno.

I've always gotten a good unique after using a lot of fusings or jeweller's.

5L a chest? marohi drops from Piety soon after and I divine it to near-perfect in nemesis.
6S a chest? a 43/39 searing touch drops from piety soon after just yesterday in invasion.

Also, it seems that after using or spending orbs on trading my orb droprate skyrockets.

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Idioticus wrote:

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Also, it seems that after using or spending orbs on trading my orb droprate skyrockets.

Happens to me. I have X chaos/ alch
I spend some
They start droping again.. we spoke about in first pages

I've gotten 6 exalts in the entirety of my play since the day after closed beta went pay-to-enter.

Three of them happened in one day, all from pots, within a few hours of each other.

Nothing for 14 months.

Three more, within about 9 hours total, 2 from pots and 1 from a chest.

I've never gotten an exalt from a mob, nor do i know of anyone who has gotten exalts in any consistent manner, it is always a burst of them, then nothing. I've also had this happen to me with, for some reason, brightbeaks. Got four of them in a day of farming merveil in domination as i needed some chaos for gear, out of all the uniques she dropped, nothing occurred more than once that day except brightbeaks. I had high IIR, but most of what i got was junk rares, a few low level junk uniques, and 4 brightbeaks.

I'm sure there's some kind of cloud, but how to attract it or predict its occurence is beyond my speculation. I will say that it is a clear indicator that, if you get ANY kind of lucky drop at all
KEEP
PLAYING

Back in onslaught while leveling in cruel, 1st exalt cruel ledge, 2nd exalt in about 15~ mins later in the prison dropped.


Happend so far with divine's, gemcutter's, certain unique's (2x alpha's howl within 2 hours / 2x andvarius in 1 day), orb of chance made 3 uniques in 14 orb of chances on maps (coward's trial, poorjoy's & acton's nightmare), insane map drops (getting 4~6 lvl 74~77 map drops per map, for 8 maps long, this was back when we had to roll maze mods), 2x portal drop in 1 day.

I forgot alot more, but whatever, it still makes the point. It doesn't care about any kind of chance, it's getting identical items in a short amount. It can be any item.

It's just odd.

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VaultzInex wrote:

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Idioticus wrote:

.

Also, it seems that after using or spending orbs on trading my orb droprate skyrockets.

Happens to me. I have X chaos/ alch
I spend some
They start droping again.. we spoke about in first pages

i can confirm that too. many many times after i bought something, the orb drop rate was obviuosly way better. chaos, scouring, alch, regal, whatever.

7 6links in 2 weeks : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuO1bilGKlA
Is this fake or what.


He said that you must put your item in your inventory in a specific position. Who knew..

Yep. Definitely poor seeding.

My guild has one character who does all the coloring, one who does all the socketing and one who does all the fusings.

The naysayers thinking it's just coincidence have no idea how programming a pseudo-random number generator works.

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feyith wrote:

Yep. Definitely poor seeding.

My guild has one character who does all the coloring, one who does all the socketing and one who does all the fusings.

The naysayers thinking it's just coincidence have no idea how programming a pseudo-random number generator works.

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that GGG didn't write their own PRNG :P

I'm going to go out on another limb and guess that you're well aware of confirmation bias -- I don't doubt that your guild does what you say, but without data it can be hard to see whether it's actually indicative of a problem with seeding or if (for instance) your guild members just color, socket, and fuse enough to be successful.

Assuming you're serious, I (and I'm sure GGG) would be pretty interested to see things like your fuser's average number of fusings to 5/6l, sockets to 6s per item or your colorers average number for >%50 off-color over the course of a month or two. In the case of GGG, I'd assume they'd be able to look at that themselves given account names.

I'm normally the first person to point out to people that RNG is streaky in/by nature, but PRNGs (as you note) tend to have streaks that stick if they're not seeded properly. And humans tend to misidentify those streaks and how much they stick.

If there is a seeding problem, it's not a glaringly obvious one. It might be glaringly obvious to the devs if told to look at the right data sets.

Did you see the guy who 6linked like 7+ items in 2 weeks? What do you think about it?

i got my first 6link via fusings after almost 2 years of playing

spent 3 fuses.

waiting to get my mirror drop now