Ultimatum Statistics

who cares.

Next league please. Decent patch please. Buff skills please. Change the meta please. BRING BACK HARVEST for god sake.

path of exile is a dead game atm. Congratz on killing harvest

So basically that means :
Chance for HH on 73+ area is 0.005 % - 1 per 20000 ultimatums
For mirror of kalandra - i dont know, my calc turned off
Should be around 9.44444444e-7 which means never :)

I like stats, but I'm not terribly thrilled with this post.

1) I would be much more interested in seeing the distribution of what wave people cash out on than what wave they fail on (but both is better).

2) How is it mathematically possible for completion rates by wave # to all be above 90%, but completion rates by encounter type to all be below 90%? Shouldn't they essentially (weighted) average out to the same?

3) I don't really care about what encounters or modifiers are most deadly, as long as the game devs put in effort to balance them.

4) How is a few hundred mirrors or headhunters out of tens of millions of ultimatums supposed to entice people?

Seens acurate... But also misleading.
As many others said, what about people that did not start the encounter cause it was too rippy?
How many of those 95% of successes come from normal maps? Keep in mind that if you fail 3% to 5% of the time in any given wave, that means the completion rate from 1-9 is actually close to 72%
How does a 72% completion rate compares to drox encounters? Chayula breaches? Shapers? Sirus?


Dont try to say "the mechanic is fine players! You just suck!" And show data that does not give the full picture to people that are pissed that they are playing standard with an npc that is anoying

idk man...
i just want the dc timers. is that to ask too much? 3/4 deaths to dcs/crashes. Im honestly loosing my will to play.

These statistics are disheartening for several reasons:

1) There is a factor that you guys forgot to mention that can cause failure: Topography. I have had Ults that have spawned on ridiculously crammed corners and I fail because too many enemies spawn on top of me at once before I can get a swing in to get going. This is prominent in maps like Flooded Mine, Arena, Colosseum, any tomb levels, etc.

2) There have been people who failed because of technical client problems. I have seen from others and have had myself where there are graphical problems or spikes that can lock up and cause you to fail. I can accept human error as an excuse, but not when the game is barely rendering things and our client updates us to a death.

3) How are we supposed to know if we get a Trialmaster this run or not? Showing us that only 35-36% of the Trialmaster runs are beaten because we suck or we bail pre-maturely isn't exactly filling us with optimism, especially when Round 7 often is the round that determines should we keep going or not. I have had Ults where I got to Round 6 and got something like a Glided Scarab, Harbinger Orb, Exalt Shards, a good hefty about of splinters or a 6L and then find out on R7 I am risking my life for a measely 5 Orbs of Binding that I have nearly 400 of sitting in my inventory doing nothing. The only time I go all the way is if I am 99.9% certain I can finish without dying (there is still that small chance I can fuck up) or none of the treasures up to Round 6 are worth keeping should I fail.

Sure we have to use our judgment but one thing I have learned from previous leagues is that we at least get enough information (eg. Blight shows the lane counter, or Ritual will reveal all the available prizes or Alva will tell us the outcome of hte Incursion based on how we do) to consider risking our character's lives and time to try it or go a certain path. With Ult, it's basically do it, don't screw up due to RNG and hope the next wave ends it.

If there was a counter at least to tell us how many waves the Ult will have, we can make the judgment call for ourselves if it is worth going all the way or risking it all for nothing. I have faced the Trialmaster twice and I only failed them both because I got 7 Ruined when I probably would have made him drop dead.

4) The builds that are most likely to succeed are things with minions, ridiculously high DPS or have high mobility. Everything else just falls like a plate full of piss or has to be incredibly lucky.

5) I will be straight up honest: I don't give a rat's ass about the Headhunter or the Mirror of Kalandra as a whole. I think the HH is a nice item, but it is extremely niche and makes nearly farming maps all that much trivial. I own one on standard I got from Marshes from the boss on Ritual and I got the Replica from Heist and I keep them as trophies and will probably never use them. I probably would just keep the Mirror as a trophy and never use it. If I get a spare, I'd trade it off and put it into a kickass Watcher's Eye most likely (eg. Triple Precision). If I had the opportunity, I would have rather tried on Heist, Delve or Ritual than to risk it on Ult. Showing people we failed to get 400-500 of these out of nearly 100M attempts isn't giving people who want to get it an incentive, especially when both items are effectively niches that marks kill each other just to get.

6) Benevolent Guardian is also a problem. There are instances I have had where 2-3 of these spawn per wave, which is pretty much Occasional Impotence on roids. I have done Ults on OI since I got LGOH with Vit on my Watcher's eye and it isn't the worst thing to get hit by (given I also have Consecrated PAth as my main attack).

7) You also need to factor in the enemy composition into the equation as well. More often than not, the Vaal Soldier parties are the worst in encounters due to the projectile hell + the fear of getting Ashed, while the Constructs (the little robots paired with the crystal carrying rares) often stop spawning attackers since they wonder too far off the boundaries and the Ult stops spawning new enemies, or forcing you to go Limited Arena to bring them back and Monkeys often become a kite fest in Survival or Stand in the Stone Circles. In crammed arenas, Vaal Soldiers and Constructs in some cases become the most dangerous attackers when Vermin (Spiders/Birds) and Kongs either get destroyed due to their shitty life pools or you can easily kite them around like the Rare Kongs.

Bastards. The way how it was written is more less (as many outlined), spawn rate is ok you suck. Yeah, ive played casually and suprise,ive not seen TM even once.

Btw, any data could be interpreted in free way, glass of water which is half full half empty rule. Garbage post either way. I cant wait for more mtx shoved in my throat.

Alright now tell me how to get to trialmaster and complete 3/4 conditionall challenges, because already runned three fifty billions of maps and saw him 2 times in whole league on deadliest t16 juiced maps which really doesnt allow me clown around him and to wait 15min to do a random trash shit, when i have more chance to be hitted by meteoroid, as im always doing 40s each league, please tell me how????????????????? Ill run not 100 but 300 labs instead of that shit, not even a real challenge, same rate to drop mirror KEKW

"

Community_Team wrote:

....In total, we can see that 193,493,170 Ultimatum encounters have been started across all area levels.....

Now, let's take a look at the percentage of Trialmaster encounters that were generated but were never started. Buckle up, this one is shockingly high.

Percentage of Trialmaster encounters not started (area level 78 or higher) 64.39%

........

That surprised Pikachu face is hilarious. As if they only used algorithms only and then reality slapped with a big juicer.


Yeah as expected a high opt out rate when speaking of of high monsters levels , bad map layout, deadly map mods and bad encounter to begin with (stone circles + indoor).

Also a reason to opt out before starting when keeping the first issues in mind.
The usual rare monster+aura stacking if not killing fast enough (indoor maps, encounter type), bad rng in ulti-mods and making it more rippy, spawn rate in later waves.

Some Trialmaster / Ultimatum suggestions:
- Make Trialmaster spawn independent of the generation, only from
- Make him a tiered boss like Rigwald from Talisman league

403 HH generated out of probably millions of trials by 60k - 80k players, which it only cost 40+ exalted orbs in std. Lol just lol