[Unofficial] The complete guide to fusing mechanics
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Just rebumping this for OB, great read, while the numbers haven't been approved/denied by GGG, it was as close (and it makes sense) as "fact" as we had on the subject. Sure a few forum crawler will find it interesting and will be able to educate people when someone says "I used 10 fusing and didn't get 6 link, its broken"
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I ve been wondering if random drops and vendor items follow the same mechanics / values.
I've noted how many 4L I get for items that have 4 sockets. Out of random drops, 6 out of 109 4S items are 4L. For vendor items, it's 3 out of 22 (so far). The sample size is small so there is uncertainty. but I'm suspecting that the values for links in random drops might be lower than with fusing, while vendors could be similar. Anyone else has data about this ? Last edited by voxnav#5610 on Feb 16, 2013, 11:10:08 AM
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I have some more data.
4L drops: 17 out of 233 4S 4L vendor items: 10 out of 102 4S Both of these are close to the expected 10%. So if we assume that the probabilities of socket numbers and link numbers for dropped/vendor items are the same as in 0.9.6f, then: 1 out of 100 dropped items (that can have 4 sockets) is a 4L 2.67 out of 10000 is a 5L 1.07 out of 100000 is a 6L Or relatively to each other for chests and 2 handers: 4L are 36 times more likely than 5L, and 5L are 25 times more likely than 6L. Last edited by voxnav#5610 on Feb 16, 2013, 11:20:04 AM
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Great thread, thanx for teh data.
Too bad I read it after I've spent all my Fusings/Jewlers hoping to get at least 5L. So what's faster/easier: find a 6L and Chaos it over and over or Fuse/Jew a rare to get 6L? | |
" Actually you only need about 200 fusings to have a 50% chance of linking it |
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Great thread love stats in real life. Playing this game past 6 months 2 memorable moments, to help with sampling.
Bought a 6s5L voltaxic rift got a 6linked in 168 fusings. Within that got 5link 1 time Bought 6s5l kaoms primacy 820 fusings later and still no 6 link. Within that got 5 link twice. Conclusion: would have been way cheaper to buy a 6link kaoms primacy with the 16 exalts I used to buy the 820 fusings lol. rng is rng. Last edited by Bladerlore#0124 on Oct 27, 2013, 11:34:06 PM
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How does item Quality impact the fusing chances?
All that and a bag of chips!
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" Positive. Last edited by Nightmare90#4217 on Nov 19, 2013, 9:33:23 PM
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who's the necromancer....
Good memories from closed beta: http://imgur.com/D2eSfYL - Damn fine chest.
May nullsFaith from closed beta safely rest in GGG's backups ;) |
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" Your algorithm for calculating the probability of rolling a 5-link on a 6-socket item is wrong. Using the percentages in your tables, the correct odds of rolling a 5-link are about 3.24%. Before revising your original post, you may want to consult an introductory text on probability. Here is a good reference: http://www.amazon.com/Probability-Demystified-Allan-Bluman/dp/0071445498/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1384917531&sr=1-2&keywords=Probability+Demystified |
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