Jeweler probability and socket color data

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Kabraxis wrote:

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WhiteBoy88 wrote:

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Chris wrote:

0.9.6f: 1:100 2:90 3:80 4:30 5:5 6:1

In percentage chances:
1: 32.68%
2: 29.41%
3: 26.14%
4: 9.80%
5: 1.63%
6: 0.33%

This is so piece of crap. Ive seen better percentages in most hardcore korean grinders lol.
Looks like spreadsheet from MU Online (edition for ppl who lives in basement).

Inform me when these 3 last numbers will be at least x3.
Maybe then it will be mark that crafting in PoE is fixed and enyojable.
Now it reminds me of systems that are commonly used in korean games (rare materials to upgrade, very low chance of upgrade, high chance of getting something worse and sorry but for modern, western gamer its simply unnacceptable).

I dont know when you guys fro mGGG find inspiration when it comes to some of your game elements and design but im sure its wrong, dark and sad place. :/

What these numbers mean:
300 jewelers on average to get a 6 socket item.
16.4% chance of getting a 6 socket item with 50 jewelers.
28.4% chance of getting a 6 socket item with 100 jewelers.
63.4% chance of getting a 6 socket item with 300 jewelers.
96.5% chance of getting a 6 socket item with 1000 jewelers.

Every 2 zones, I average 3 Jeweler's Orbs and 1 6-socket item (with no leechers and about 75% quantity).
The item can be sold for 10 more Orbs, giving us 13 orbs per 2 zones, or 6.5 orbs/zone.
4.3% chance of getting a 6 socket item with 13 jewelers.

So 25 zones to turn the item you want into a 6-socket item.
Doesn't sound too bad, considering you get tons of other drops too, and it is supposed to be a major achievement.

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That said, I would like to be able to simply vendor 20 stacks of Jeweler's Orbs, and an item...
And get a 6-socket version of it (400 orbs).
Instead of rolling the click-click-click lottery and wasting tons of time without the guarantee.

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wyldmage wrote:

What these numbers mean:
300 jewelers on average to get a 6 socket item.

If I'm understanding the numbers correctly, the percentages WhiteBoy listed apply to dropped (and vendor-obtained?) items that are of high enough level to obtain six sockets.

Items that have jeweler's orbs used on them have no chance of rerolling the same number of sockets. This means the percentage chance of getting a large socket number would be higher than listed with the best chance coming from an item that has one socket.

Wouldn't that mean that the chance of rolling six sockets using a jeweler's orb on an item with a random non-six socket configuration would be

(100/305)(1/206)+(90/305)(1/216)+(80/305)(1/226)+(30/305)(1/276)+(5/305)(1/301) = .45% ?

or about one in 221.

Wow I didn't realize that 5 socket was so likely — just like a 1 in 61 chance.

Everything else seems about right I guess.

edit: oh whoops I was thinking of 5 linked, LOL. Yeah 5 socket unlinked makes sense.

I jewelered a bow today:
- in 130 jeweler orbs i got three times 5 sockets and 1 time 6 sockets.

In the current market economy getting 6 unlinked is pretty cheap with 1 / 300. If we assume the ratios are the same for fusings ( they seem to be in the same ballpark at least ), then 1 / 300 is a bit sadistic.

I just spent exactly 123 Jewelers Orbs on a chest.
I got 5 sockets only one time, and 6 sockets exactly zero times.

Bad luck, or too much grind?

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Ashmyster wrote:

I just spent exactly 123 Jewelers Orbs on a chest.
I got 5 sockets only one time, and 6 sockets exactly zero times.

Bad luck, or too much grind?

Your odds of getting 6 sockets were about 30%. So no big surprise you didn't get one.

Your odds of getting at least 5 sockets at least once were much better:
91.2%

Your odds of getting 5 sockets were 1.63% per attempt. So on average, you would get 1 for every 61.3 orbs. So you should *according to statistics* have gotten 2. However, you got a tad unlucky.

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Chris wrote:

You're right that it'll never reroll to the same number it currently has.

1 socket whites are more valuable than blanks, 2 sockets, 3 sockets and 4 sockets?

This also means, never stop on a 1!

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Pyriana wrote:

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Chris wrote:

You're right that it'll never reroll to the same number it currently has.

1 socket whites are more valuable than blanks, 2 sockets, 3 sockets and 4 sockets?

This also means, never stop on a 1!

If the mechanics involve reroll again when that happens, then technically 0 socket has significently more chance to roll 6 than 5 sockets rolling 6

Edit: and I think items that can have socket will have at least 1 socket

Edit2: Thought about the idea again, I dont think this is the case. If you have a 1 socket item that roll 1 again, it probably will not reroll but instead give you 2 socket. For a 2 to roll 2 again, it can either get 1 or 3. Unless we know the mechanic/code, there is no way to tell.

Wow I didn't know the chances were that low for rolling a 6 socket. As bad of luck I have with finding uniques and using fuses (horrible chances there) I actually got 6 sockets on a voll's yesterday on my 3rd jewelers.

I've come to realize that I will never get enough fuse to get this thing at least 5 link though lol >.<

Edit: If it matters it started with 4 sockets.