Ambition Vaal Aspect bugged?

In the last 3 days, I have ran 22 Temple of Atzoatl (ilvl83) and have had no luck in dropping Ambition Aspect, not sure if it's bugged currently or just out of this world unlucky. I have already farmed 5 first month of league. Anyone else experiencing this problem?

I think the pool is still too small. Saw someone who posted and they got 20 in 400 Temples. Meanwhile others say 1 in 5-10 but didn't include how many bosses they killed.

up to 30 temples, still nothing. Have 7 more in inventory to run then I'll have to slave away in maps for more alva's. The drop rate is suppose to be above 20% but this is crazy.

I've noticed a reduction in droprate as well

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MagosX wrote:

I've noticed a reduction in droprate as well

in before stealth nerf for next league with an adorned nerf... starting to feel like it's a possibility. 3 temples left and still nothing :)

Huzzah! Temple #41 Ambition Aspect finally dropped. OUTRAGEOUS RNG on my behalf, just crazy. There's no way someone should go 1/41 for an aspect that isn't even rare or has a low drop chance.

Human brain doesn't deal well with random numbers or random chance.

Someone posted a sample size of 400 with 20 drops which implies about 5% drop rate, or 1 in 20.

You expect a drop in 20 attempts or less. Any more than that and you act apeshit.

Whereas in reality much worse outcomes are still within reasonable realm of possibility. At 5 percent odds per attempt you have:

35,8% chance to not see a drop after 20 attempts
12,8% chance to not see a drop after 40 attempts
4,6% chance to not see a drop after 60 attempts
1,6% chance to not see a drop after 80 attempts
0,6% chance to not see a drop after 100 attempts

This is assuming no pity timer.

0,6% is still reasonably common in a game played by hundreds of thousands of people. With 1000 people farming temples for this item you will get about 6 that will run into a streak of at least 100 attempts without any drop.

You people run into unlucky streak that isn't even that rare (12,8% odds for no drop after 40 attempts) and go cry here that it's bugged or nerfed. It's not, you just don't understand random numbers being random.