Map Runners & Death Probability

Not a complaint post. I'm just trying to genuinely understand how the map runners death rate is supposed to work and could use some insight from those that have used them over a longer sample set.

My scenario:
- I have a fully maxed Kingsmarch
- Using 3 Lvl 9 map runners with 3 lvl 8s
- Only running T6-T9 maps
- Only run maps with this single group
- Maps list death rate at 1%
- Map completion never below 90%. Often at 100%
- I'm only running maps I am very certain will be fully completed

Yesterday I ran about 30 maps and had zero deaths. This morning I ran 8 and had 3 deaths. Each time one dies I replace them with a Lvl 8 backup. But now I'm out and only have Lvl 7s in reserve. It's completely gutted my team and decided to just hold off until I can gear them back up with some more L8-10 runners.

IMO I probably ran a little lucky day 1 and extremely unlucky day 2. But I guess the real question is what should be the normal level of expectation? Should I read the rate of death to mean 1% overall chance of a runner dying per map or 1% per runner (6%) per map?

Again, this is not a complaint post. I'm trying to figure out what normal expectations & what works best for others so I can get the best results.

The Same Thing happend to me, one day they die like flies, one day they cruise through maps faster than i can generate them.

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jddc78 wrote:

Again, this is not a complaint post. I'm trying to figure out what normal expectations & what works best for others so I can get the best results.

I don't think it's anything you can do to improve your results. 1% death probability is unavoidable. I'm running with lvl 10 and 9 mappers and they sometimes die, I hate it, really do, but I guess GGG thought that there was a lot of gold around, and needed a way to make it disappear.

Even sailors will die with 0% chance of trouble, so I guess mappers and sailors are marked for death, no matter what you do.

I've set up my mappers and went to bed and it's always one of the first 3 mappers who dies lol. Happened at least 3 times.

Seems mapper death is based on deterministic seed. Global, or linked to map - unclear. But there are times when 10-12 mappers can die in row on a T1 map.

Oh, and if a mapper dies, map stops, even if there are more than one mapper. It appears that probablity of 6 mappers fail is greater than one mapper fail:

Chance of mapper survive: 1 - 0.01
Chance of all 6 mappers survive: (1 - 0.01)^6
Probablity of failure:

1 - (1 - 0.01)^6 = 0.058 -> 5.8%

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Su0T wrote:

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jddc78 wrote:

Even sailors will die with 0% chance of trouble, so I guess mappers and sailors are marked for death, no matter what you do.

They usually retire. It'd be funny actually if ther was a hall of fame and graveyard in Kigsmarch, but GGG didn't thought of that.